Adaptive Interviewing for Persona Simulation in LLMs: Evidence-Grounded Reasoning Improves Decision Alignment

Accurately simulating the decisions of a specific individual remains challenging for large language models (LLMs), partly because persona information is often provided as static descriptions that miss the values, experiences, and contextual cues needed for individual-level decision simulation. We propose an adaptive interview framework that gathers persona-relevant information through a structured three-stage dialogue: core questions, dynamic follow-ups, and a synthesized personality summary. Using the resulting interview transcripts, we evaluate whether LLMs can simulate participants' decisions in moral dilemma scenarios. We compare three conversational contexts -- Core-10 responses, the full interview dialogue, and a summarized persona representation. We find that adaptive interviewing functions less as a uniform accuracy booster and more as a selective grounding mechanism: follow-up-derived evidence is incorporated in around 40% of full-interview traces, and these follow-up-grounded predictions are more accurate than core-only grounded ones (45.5% vs. 39.3%). These findings highlight that richer persona context alone is insufficient: improvements arise only when models actually ground their decisions in user-specific evidence.