Cost Projections for High Temperature Superconductors

It is generally argued that for high-temperature superconductors (HTS) to be cost-competitive in power applications, the wire will have to sell for about $10 per kiloampere meter ($10/kAm) for operation at 77 K (e.g., NbTi costs around $1/kAm and Nb3Sn around $8, each at 4.2 K). Given what is already known about the critical current performance of Pb-stabilized Bi-2223 (BSCCO), this cost target may be extremely difficult to realistically achieve for silver-sheathed BSCCO produced by the oxide-powder-in-tube (OPIT) technique. In this paper, we examine the cost of component materials, add reasonable estimates for labor and related costs, and arrive at a likely cost/performance (C/P) figure. We also estimate the capital cost of a factory to produce HTS conductor by a particular coated conductor method, and calculate the necessary production-output and performance parameters necessary to manufacture 10 km/yr of wire and its associated C/P. Our results indicate that the real C/P seen by the customer will remain substantially above this $10/kAm target for some time to come.