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arxiv: cond-mat/0211039 · v1 · submitted 2002-11-02 · ❄️ cond-mat.soft · cond-mat.stat-mech· q-fin.ST

Inverse Statistics in Economics : The gain-loss asymmetry

classification ❄️ cond-mat.soft cond-mat.stat-mechq-fin.ST
keywords asymmetrydistributionreturnstatisticseconomicsgain-losshorizonsinverse
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Inverse statistics in economics is considered. We argue that the natural candidate for such statistics is the investment horizons distribution. This distribution of waiting times needed to achieve a predefined level of return is obtained from (often detrended) historic asset prices. Such a distribution typically goes through a maximum at a time called the {\em optimal investment horizon}, $\tau^*_\rho$, since this defines the most likely waiting time for obtaining a given return $\rho$. By considering equal positive and negative levels of return, we report on a quantitative gain-loss asymmetry most pronounced for short horizons. It is argued that this asymmetry reflects the market dynamics and we speculate over the origin of this asymmetry.

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