A Bayesian view of the current status of dark matter direct searches

Chiara Arina; Jan Hamann; Yvonne Y. Y. Wong

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A Bayesian view of the current status of dark matter direct searches

Chiara Arina, Jan Hamann, Yvonne Y. Y. Wong

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Submitted 25 May 2011

abstract compiled · 2026-09-23 · no language-model review

The authors' main claim We find that when uncertainties in the scintillation efficiency of Xenon100 have been accounted for, the resulting exclusion limit is not sufficiently constraining to rule out the CoGeNT preferred parameter region, contrary to previous claims.

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arXiv ID1105.5121 (version 2)

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CitationChiara Arina, Jan Hamann, Yvonne Y. Y. Wong. "A Bayesian view of the current status of dark matter direct searches." arXiv:1105.5121 (2011). https://pith.science/paper/LVPO2R2O

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What the abstract itself states, as probabilities: claims first 0.03 · states limitation 0.60 · human participants 0.01 · controlled comparison 0.06 · randomized assignment 0.01 · states quantitative result 0.15 · compares with prior results 0.93 · mentions code or data availability 0.02.

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Bayesian statistical methods offer a simple and consistent framework for incorporating uncertainties into a multi-parameter inference problem. In this work we apply these methods to a selection of current direct dark matter searches. We consider the simplest scenario of spin-independent elastic WIMP scattering, and infer the WIMP mass and cross-section from the experimental data with the essential systematic uncertainties folded into the analysis. We find that when uncertainties in the scintillation efficiency of Xenon100 have been accounted for, the resulting exclusion limit is not sufficiently constraining to rule out the CoGeNT preferred parameter region, contrary to previous claims. In the same vein, we also investigate the impact of astrophysical uncertainties on the preferred WIMP parameters. We find that within the class of smooth and isotropic WIMP velocity distributions, it is difficult to reconcile the DAMA and the CoGeNT preferred regions by tweaking the astrophysics parameters alone. If we demand compatibility between these experiments, then the inference process naturally concludes that a high value for the sodium quenching factor for DAMA is preferred.

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#	sentence	role	the authors' own work	states the main conclusion	strength
s0	Bayesian statistical methods offer a simple and consistent framework for incorporating uncertainties into a multi-parameter inference problem.	background 0.93	0.06	0.02	asserted 1.00
s1	In this work we apply these methods to a selection of current direct dark matter searches.	contribution 0.95	0.91	0.02	asserted 0.94
s2	We consider the simplest scenario of spin-independent elastic WIMP scattering, and infer the WIMP mass and cross-section from the experimental data with the essential systematic uncertainties folded into the analysis.	method 0.72	0.92	0.06	asserted 0.96
s3	We find that when uncertainties in the scintillation efficiency of Xenon100 have been accounted for, the resulting exclusion limit is not sufficiently constraining to rule out the CoGeNT preferred parameter region, contrary to previous claims.	result 1.00	0.95	0.32	asserted 1.00
s4	In the same vein, we also investigate the impact of astrophysical uncertainties on the preferred WIMP parameters.	contribution 0.93	0.72	0.03	unclear 0.62
s5	We find that within the class of smooth and isotropic WIMP velocity distributions, it is difficult to reconcile the DAMA and the CoGeNT preferred regions by tweaking the astrophysics parameters alone.	result 1.00	0.94	0.19	asserted 0.98
s6	If we demand compatibility between these experiments, then the inference process naturally concludes that a high value for the sodium quenching factor for DAMA is preferred.	result 0.95	0.92	0.16	asserted 0.91

What kind of paper the classifier reports this is: simulation study 0.44 · evidence from analysis of existing data 1.00.

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The paper

Original abstract

Bayesian statistical methods offer a simple and consistent framework for incorporating uncertainties into a multi-parameter inference problem. In this work we apply these methods to a selection of current direct dark matter searches. We consider the simplest scenario of spin-independent elastic WIMP scattering, and infer the WIMP mass and cross-section from the experimental data with the essential systematic uncertainties folded into the analysis. We find that when uncertainties in the scintillation efficiency of Xenon100 have been accounted for, the resulting exclusion limit is not sufficiently constraining to rule out the CoGeNT preferred parameter region, contrary to previous claims. In the same vein, we also investigate the impact of astrophysical uncertainties on the preferred WIMP parameters. We find that within the class of smooth and isotropic WIMP velocity distributions, it is difficult to reconcile the DAMA and the CoGeNT preferred regions by tweaking the astrophysics parameters alone. If we demand compatibility between these experiments, then the inference process naturally concludes that a high value for the sodium quenching factor for DAMA is preferred.

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References

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Cited by 10 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

Oscillating Asymmetric Dark Matter
hep-ph 2012-02 accept novelty 7.0 of 10

Whether dark matter annihilation recouples after freeze-out depends on whether the interaction is even or odd under charge conjugation, not just on whether oscillations have begun.
Not so Coy Dark Matter explains DAMA (and the Galactic Center excess)
hep-ph 2014-06 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

A pseudo-scalar-mediated Dirac dark matter candidate whose coupling to protons far exceeds its coupling to neutrons can fit DAMA, evade LUX and XENON100, and match the Galactic Center excess and relic density.
Global fits of the dark matter-nucleon effective interactions
hep-ph 2014-05 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

A global Bayesian and frequentist fit of all ten isoscalar dark matter-nucleon effective couplings to current direct detection data constrains every operator simultaneously and finds strong correlations only between t...
The local dark matter phase-space density and impact on WIMP direct detection
astro-ph.CO 2011-11 accept novelty 6.0 of 10

Inverting Milky Way mass models fitted to dynamical data through Eddington's formula yields a local dark matter velocity distribution that raises predicted direct detection rates above the standard Maxwell-Boltzmann b...
Light Magnetic Dark Matter in Direct Detection Searches
hep-ph 2012-03 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

A 10 GeV fermion with a magnetic dipole moment of about 1.5e-18 e cm can fit the DAMA, CoGeNT and CRESST signals while evading null-result experiments under conservative assumptions.

Show 5 more citing papers

Resolving astrophysical uncertainties in dark matter direct detection
hep-ph 2011-11 accept novelty 5.0 of 10

No velocity distribution of galactic dark matter can reconcile the CoGeNT, CRESST-II and DAMA signals with the XENON and CDMS null results, for standard spin-independent elastic scattering.
Long-Range Forces in Direct Dark Matter Searches
hep-ph 2011-08 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

A long-range force carried by a 10 to 30 MeV mediator lets the DAMA, CoGeNT and CRESST anomalies share a single dark matter interpretation at roughly 10 GeV.
Global fits of the cMSSM including the first LHC and XENON100 data
hep-ph 2011-07 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

Adding the first XENON100 data to a global cMSSM fit excludes the Focus Point region at high confidence, even after marginalizing over astrophysical and hadronic uncertainties.
DAMA and CoGeNT without astrophysical uncertainties
hep-ph 2011-07 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

Mapping CoGeNT's modulation onto DAMA with no astrophysical inputs shows that equal-coupling elastic dark matter of 5-14 GeV is strongly disfavoured as the common source of both signals.
A new halo-independent approach to dark matter direct detection analysis
hep-ph 2014-03 conditional novelty 4.0 of 10

A monotone step-function fit to the dark matter velocity integral lets direct detection data constrain particle properties without assuming a halo shape.

How the literature uses it

31 arXiv papers cite this in 62 sentences

Each citing sentence is taken from the citing paper's LaTeX source and typed by Pith's classifier. A label appears at probability 0.8 or more (0.95 for support), a contest at 0.7 or more; the quoted words are the citing authors'. How each label was checked · JSON

Papers citing it · 36 sentences without a confident label

Builds on it 2 papers

The main results can be found in [ref] , however here we update the inference by including CDMS-Si data.

Bayesian analysis of multiple direct detection experiments · Updated status of dark matter theoretical parameter inference · 0.99
Before heading towards the main intent of the paper, however, we wish to extend the Bayesian analysis pursued in [ref] to the most recent experimental results and to distinct particle physics interactions.

Chasing a consistent picture for dark matter direct searches · Introduction · 1.00

Uses its method or tool 4 papers

We use Bayesian statistics to infer the $99_S%$ credible interval for the exclusion limits and both the 90% and 99% credible regions for DAMA from the posterior probability density function, as detailed in [ref] where it was demonstrated that the procedure is robust against the choice of prior and matches well a profile likelihood analysis.

Not so Coy Dark Matter explains DAMA (and the Galactic Center excess) · Direct detection · 0.96
We discuss here the prior choice for the parameters following [ref] , where the details can be found.

Bayesian analysis of multiple direct detection experiments · Discussion on prior pdfs · 0.80
We employ the same procedure as in [ref] to include experimental systematics in the likelihood and to encompass astrophysical uncertainties using a motivated DM density profile with the related velocity distribution.

Chasing a consistent picture for dark matter direct searches · Introduction · 0.96

Uses its data or values 1 paper

We strictly apply the XENON100 and CDMSSi constraints derived in [ref] to the SI scattering cross sections and only show points that are not excluded by any of the two experiments.

Dark Matter and Dark Forces from a supersymmetric hidden sector · Limits from dark matter · 0.82

Compares with it 1 paper

This approach is similar to the one proposed in [ref] for the qualitative analysis of individual direct detection experiments, but should be contrasted with the quantitative global analyses in [ref] that make use of more restricted parameterizations of the halo.

Quantifying (dis)agreement between direct detection experiments in a halo-independent way · Introduction · 0.97

Cites it as support 2 papers

Other DM density profiles give similar results on the {$m_DM,σ_n^SI$}-plane, namely the exact shape of the DM halo density profile, at least within the class of spherically symmetric, smooth profiles, does not yet play a role in direct DM searches, as shown in [ref] .

Chasing a consistent picture for dark matter direct searches · Astrophysical uncertainties · 1.00
We neglect the uncertainty in $L_eff (E)$, which however is only important for very light WIMP mass, $m_χ< 10$ GeV, as argued recently in Ref. [ref] .

Global fits of the cMSSM including the first LHC and XENON100 data · Implementation of XENON100 data · 0.99

Cites it as background 11 papers

There have been several studies mostly based on rotation curves and on local surface density measurements which tried to bracket the astrophysical uncertainties ( Refs. [ref] ), and where essentially point (i) was brought to the fore.

Making sense of the local Galactic escape speed estimates in direct dark matter searches · Introduction · 0.94
In the literature there have been extensive discussions about the impact of uncertainties related to WIMP phase space on direct detection [ref] and indirect detection for more specific scenarios [ref] .

Impact of Dark Matter Velocity Distributions on Capture Rates in the Sun · Introduction · 0.95
For details we refer to [ref] .

Chasing a consistent picture for dark matter direct searches · Astrophysical uncertainties · 0.82

What it cites · 3 sentences without a confident label

Uses data or values from 3 papers

Between 2006 and 2007, the Xenon10 collaboration found 13 events for an expected background of 7 events in an exposure of 316.4 kg-days in the $2.0 →75.0$ keVnr window [ref] .

First Results from the XENON10 Dark Matter Experiment at the Gran Sasso National Laboratory · Xenon · 0.99
The likelihood follows a Gaussian distribution, [equation] where $s_i$ and $s̅^obs _i$ are the theoretical and the mean observed modulation respectively in the $i$th energy bin, $σ_i$ is the associated uncertainty in the observed signal, and we use in this analysis the 36-bin data from figure 9 of [ref] .

First results from DAMA/LIBRA and the combined results with DAMA/NaI · DAMA · 1.00
Marginalising over the total background $B$ (but not the spectral shape) in the manner of equations ([ref]) and ([ref]), we find in the small $σ_B/B̅$ limit an effective likelihood [equation] We include in the analysis also null results from three previous searches with the CDMS germanium detector, with exposures of 34 kg-days [ref] , 19.4 kg-days [ref] , and 397.8 kg-days [ref] , bringing the total exposure to 1063.2 kg-days.

A Search for WIMPs with the First Five-Tower Data from CDMS · CDMSGe · 0.97

Cites as background 4 papers

For spin-independent scattering, CDMS [ref] , Xenon100 [ref] , Xenon10 [ref] , Edelweiss [ref] , the CRESST run on Tungsten [ref] , and Zeplin-III [ref] have all set relevant bounds.

Results from the First Science Run of the ZEPLIN-III Dark Matter Search Experiment · Introduction · 0.80
For spin-independent scattering, CDMS [ref] , Xenon100 [ref] , Xenon10 [ref] , Edelweiss [ref] , the CRESST run on Tungsten [ref] , and Zeplin-III [ref] have all set relevant bounds.

Commissioning Run of the CRESST-II Dark Matter Search · Introduction · 0.80
For spin-independent scattering, CDMS [ref] , Xenon100 [ref] , Xenon10 [ref] , Edelweiss [ref] , the CRESST run on Tungsten [ref] , and Zeplin-III [ref] have all set relevant bounds.

First Results from the XENON10 Dark Matter Experiment at the Gran Sasso National Laboratory · Introduction · 0.80

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