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A "nu" look at gravitational waves: The black hole birth rate from neutrinos combined with the merger rate from LIGO
High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Submitted 17 Apr 2017
abstract compiled · 2026-09-23 · no language-model review
The authors' main claim By combining the black hole birth rate from the DSNB with projected measurements of the black hole merger rate from LIGO, we show that the fraction of black holes which lead to binary mergers observed today $\epsilon$ could be constrained to be within the range $2 \cdot 10^{-4} \leq \epsilon \leq 3 \cdot 10^{-2}$ at $3 \sigma$ confidence, after ten years of running an experiment like Hyper-Kamiokande.
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We make projections for measuring the black hole birth rate from the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB) by future neutrino experiments, and constrain the black hole merger fraction $\epsilon$, when combined with information on the black hole merger rate from gravitational wave experiments such as LIGO. The DSNB originates from neutrinos emitted by all the supernovae in the Universe, and is expected to be made up of two components: neutrinos from neutron-star-forming supernovae, and a sub-dominant component at higher energies from black-hole-forming "unnovae". We perform a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of simulated data of the DSNB in an experiment similar to Hyper-Kamiokande, focusing on this second component. Since all knowledge of the neutrino emission from unnovae comes from simulations of collapsing stars, we choose two sets of priors: one where the unnovae are well-understood and one where their neutrino emission is poorly known. By combining the black hole birth rate from the DSNB with projected measurements of the black hole merger rate from LIGO, we show that the fraction of black holes which lead to binary mergers observed today $\epsilon$ could be constrained to be within the range $2 \cdot 10^{-4} \leq \epsilon \leq 3 \cdot 10^{-2}$ at $3 \sigma$ confidence, after ten years of running an experiment like Hyper-Kamiokande.
background contribution method result interpretation main claim
| # | sentence | role | the authors' own work | states the main conclusion | strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| s0 | We make projections for measuring the black hole birth rate from the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB) by future neutrino experiments, and constrain the black hole merger fraction $\epsilon$, when combined with information on the black hole merger rate from gravitational wave experiments such as LIGO. | contribution 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.18 | asserted 0.68 |
| s1 | The DSNB originates from neutrinos emitted by all the supernovae in the Universe, and is expected to be made up of two components: neutrinos from neutron-star-forming supernovae, and a sub-dominant component at higher energies from black-hole-forming "unnovae". | background 1.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 | hedged possibility 0.61 |
| s2 | We perform a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of simulated data of the DSNB in an experiment similar to Hyper-Kamiokande, focusing on this second component. | method 0.96 | 0.94 | 0.03 | asserted 0.98 |
| s3 | Since all knowledge of the neutrino emission from unnovae comes from simulations of collapsing stars, we choose two sets of priors: one where the unnovae are well-understood and one where their neutrino emission is poorly known. | method 0.81 | 0.82 | 0.02 | asserted 0.89 |
| s4 | By combining the black hole birth rate from the DSNB with projected measurements of the black hole merger rate from LIGO, we show that the fraction of black holes which lead to binary mergers observed today $\epsilon$ could be constrained to be within the range $2 \cdot 10^{-4} \leq \epsilon \leq 3 \cdot 10^{-2}$ at $3 \sigma$ confidence, after ten years of running an experiment like Hyper-Kamiokande. | result 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.92 | hedged possibility 0.94 |
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Original abstract
We make projections for measuring the black hole birth rate from the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB) by future neutrino experiments, and constrain the black hole merger fraction $\epsilon$, when combined with information on the black hole merger rate from gravitational wave experiments such as LIGO. The DSNB originates from neutrinos emitted by all the supernovae in the Universe, and is expected to be made up of two components: neutrinos from neutron-star-forming supernovae, and a sub-dominant component at higher energies from black-hole-forming "unnovae". We perform a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of simulated data of the DSNB in an experiment similar to Hyper-Kamiokande, focusing on this second component. Since all knowledge of the neutrino emission from unnovae comes from simulations of collapsing stars, we choose two sets of priors: one where the unnovae are well-understood and one where their neutrino emission is poorly known. By combining the black hole birth rate from the DSNB with projected measurements of the black hole merger rate from LIGO, we show that the fraction of black holes which lead to binary mergers observed today $\epsilon$ could be constrained to be within the range $2 \cdot 10^{-4} \leq \epsilon \leq 3 \cdot 10^{-2}$ at $3 \sigma$ confidence, after ten years of running an experiment like Hyper-Kamiokande.
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What it cites · 93 sentences without a confident label
Uses the method or tool of 2 papers
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[ref] and parametrise the effect of flavour oscillations with the variable $p̅$, which can be anywhere between $0$ and $cos^2 θ_12 = 0.68$.
Diffuse neutrino flux from failed supernovae · Detecting the DSNB in a water Cherenkov experiment · 0.89
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[ref] in making the simplifying assumption that $P(t)= δ(t - τ)$ in equation ([ref]) leading to the simplified expression, [equation] where now $τ$ is the (unknown) merger time of the binary system.
Counting Black Holes: The Cosmic Stellar Remnant Population and Implications for LIGO · Combining posteriors from the MCMC with data from LIGO · 0.96
Uses data or values from 14 papers
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Here we use results from simulations [ref] to estimate this function, which has the merger time distributed between $4$ Gyr and $10$ Gyr with a maximum of the probability distribution at $6$ Gyr (where $z ≈0.6$).
BPASS predictions for Binary Black-Hole Mergers · Combining posteriors from the MCMC with data from LIGO · 0.96
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Here we use results from simulations [ref] to estimate this function, which has the merger time distributed between $4$ Gyr and $10$ Gyr with a maximum of the probability distribution at $6$ Gyr (where $z ≈0.6$).
Merging binary black holes formed through chemically homogeneous evolution in short-period stellar binaries · Combining posteriors from the MCMC with data from LIGO · 0.96
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Here we use results from simulations [ref] to estimate this function, which has the merger time distributed between $4$ Gyr and $10$ Gyr with a maximum of the probability distribution at $6$ Gyr (where $z ≈0.6$).
Counting Black Holes: The Cosmic Stellar Remnant Population and Implications for LIGO · Combining posteriors from the MCMC with data from LIGO · 0.96
Cites as background 4 papers
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Neutrinos from supernovae are detectable in two broad categories: through the direct observation of a neutrino burst, potentially correlated with an optical event, and through the (as yet undetected but expected) diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB) [ref] .
Diffuse supernova neutrinos at underground laboratories · Introduction · 0.99
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Neutrinos from supernovae are detectable in two broad categories: through the direct observation of a neutrino burst, potentially correlated with an optical event, and through the (as yet undetected but expected) diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB) [ref] .
The Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background · Introduction · 0.99
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For stars with masses $M$ above approximately $8 M_⊙$ the end of their fuel-burning phase results in a phenomenon known as core-collapse [ref] .
Theory of Core-Collapse Supernovae · Introduction · 0.99
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