Direct detection of the cosmic expansion: the redshift drift and the flux drift
Pith reviewed 2026-05-24 23:52 UTC · model grok-4.3
The pith
Redshift drift and flux drift can directly detect cosmic expansion and acceleration with SKA1-mid by the mid-2030s if flux stability reaches 10^{-6}.
A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.
Core claim
The redshift drift is a direct consequence of the expansion of the Universe. The redshift drift directly impacts the change of flux, so measurements of the flux drift provide an additional tool for detecting the expansion of the universe, including its acceleration. With flux stability at the level of ΔF/F ∼ 10^{-6}, the SKA1-mid Array should be able to detect these effects before the ELT and the full SKA, providing by mid-2030s a direct evidence of the expansion of the universe including its accelerating phase.
What carries the argument
The redshift drift (change in cosmological redshift with time) together with the linked flux drift, which together encode the time evolution of the scale factor.
If this is right
- Direct measurement of expansion becomes possible without distance-ladder calibrations.
- The accelerating phase can be confirmed by the sign of the measured drift.
- SKA1-mid can reach the required sensitivity earlier than the ELT or full SKA.
- Adding the flux-drift channel increases the overall detection significance.
- Kinematic contamination can be mitigated by multi-epoch and multi-object strategies.
Where Pith is reading between the lines
- The same stability requirement would also allow cross-checks against independent expansion-rate probes such as baryon acoustic oscillations.
- Extending the time baseline beyond a decade would tighten constraints on the deceleration parameter.
- Other radio arrays reaching comparable flux stability could provide an independent confirmation route.
Load-bearing premise
Kinematic contamination from galaxy motions can be separated from the cosmological redshift and flux drift signals using the outlined strategies, and the required flux stability of 10^{-6} is achievable with SKA1-mid instrumentation.
What would settle it
A decade-long monitoring campaign with SKA1-mid that finds no net redshift or flux change at the level predicted by standard expanding models, after subtracting galaxy peculiar velocities, would falsify the claim.
read the original abstract
The redshift drift, the change of cosmological redshift with time, is a direct consequence of the expansion of the Universe. Thus the measurement of the cosmological redshift drift will offer a direct test of our models of cosmology. The magnitude of the effect is very small, i.e. the spectral shift is of order of $10^{-10} - 10^{-9}$ over the period of a decade, but the next generation facilities such as ELT and SKA will be able to directly detect the expansion of our Universe by the year 2040. In this paper we focus on detectebility of this effect, including strategies of overcoming the kinematic contamination of the cosmological signal. We also show that the redshift drift directly impacts the change of flux. Thus apart from the redshift drift, measurements of the flux drift will provide an additional tool of detecting the expansion of the universe, including its acceleration. We discuss the strategies of detecting the flux drift and show that by including the flux drift signal to the redshift drift signal we boost the chances of a direct detection of the expansion of the Universe. We show that if only the stability of flux is at the level of $\Delta F/F \sim 10^{-6}$ then the SKA1-mid Array should be able to detect these effects, before the ETL and the full SKA. Thus, by including the flux drift into the SKA1-mid Array's analysis pipeline, we could be able to provide by mid-2030s a direct evidence of the expansion of the universe including its accelerating phase.
Editorial analysis
A structured set of objections, weighed in public.
Referee Report
Summary. The paper claims that the cosmological redshift drift (spectral shift ~10^{-9} over a decade) and the associated flux drift provide a direct probe of cosmic expansion, including acceleration. It outlines strategies to mitigate kinematic contamination from galaxy motions and argues that flux stability of ΔF/F ∼ 10^{-6} would allow the SKA1-mid Array to detect these signals by the mid-2030s—earlier than the ELT or full SKA—by adding flux-drift measurements to the analysis pipeline.
Significance. If the stated instrumental stability and kinematic-separation performance can be demonstrated, the work would offer a novel radio-based route to direct detection of expansion that complements optical redshift-drift efforts. The suggestion to combine redshift and flux drifts is a potentially useful strengthening of the signal. The manuscript supplies only order-of-magnitude estimates and high-level strategies, however, so its immediate scientific impact is limited until quantitative support is added.
major comments (2)
- [Abstract] Abstract: the central claim that SKA1-mid can detect the redshift and flux drifts with ΔF/F ∼ 10^{-6} before ELT/full SKA rests on an unverified threshold. No section, equation, or table supplies the required error budget, integration-time calculation, or Monte-Carlo simulation that propagates instrumental, calibration, and source-variability contributions to show that 10^{-6} stability is sufficient to reach the cosmological signal amplitude.
- [Abstract] Abstract and discussion of kinematic strategies: the assertion that galaxy-motion contamination can be separated from the cosmological flux-drift signal (itself ~10^{-9} in relative terms) is presented without a quantitative residual-noise estimate. No calculation demonstrates that the outlined separation reduces the kinematic term below the target cosmological amplitude after realistic velocity dispersions and survey selection.
minor comments (2)
- [Abstract] Abstract contains the typo 'detectebility' (should be 'detectability') and 'ETL' (should be 'ELT').
- The manuscript would benefit from explicit references to prior redshift-drift literature and from a clear definition of the flux-drift quantity (e.g., whether it is derived directly from the redshift-drift formula or treated as an independent observable).
Simulated Author's Rebuttal
We thank the referee for the constructive comments. The points raised correctly identify areas where the manuscript would benefit from additional quantitative analysis. We will revise the paper accordingly to include the requested error budgets and calculations.
read point-by-point responses
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Referee: [Abstract] Abstract: the central claim that SKA1-mid can detect the redshift and flux drifts with ΔF/F ∼ 10^{-6} before ELT/full SKA rests on an unverified threshold. No section, equation, or table supplies the required error budget, integration-time calculation, or Monte-Carlo simulation that propagates instrumental, calibration, and source-variability contributions to show that 10^{-6} stability is sufficient to reach the cosmological signal amplitude.
Authors: We agree that a more detailed error budget is necessary to substantiate the central claim. In the revised manuscript, we will add integration-time calculations and Monte-Carlo simulations that incorporate instrumental noise, calibration uncertainties, and source variability. These additions will show that the 10^{-6} flux stability is sufficient for detection, supporting the statements in the abstract. We will also ensure the abstract accurately reflects the new quantitative results. revision: yes
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Referee: [Abstract] Abstract and discussion of kinematic strategies: the assertion that galaxy-motion contamination can be separated from the cosmological flux-drift signal (itself ~10^{-9} in relative terms) is presented without a quantitative residual-noise estimate. No calculation demonstrates that the outlined separation reduces the kinematic term below the target cosmological amplitude after realistic velocity dispersions and survey selection.
Authors: The referee is correct that the kinematic separation is discussed at a high level without quantitative residual estimates. We will include in the revision explicit calculations of the residual noise after applying the separation strategies, using realistic velocity dispersions and survey selections. This will demonstrate that the kinematic contamination can be reduced below the cosmological signal level of ~10^{-9}. revision: yes
Circularity Check
No significant circularity; claims are conditional proposals, not self-referential derivations.
full rationale
The paper's core content is a forward-looking proposal for observational detection of redshift and flux drift with instruments such as SKA1-mid, conditional on stated instrumental stability (ΔF/F ∼ 10^{-6}) and kinematic separation strategies. These are presented as external requirements rather than quantities derived from or fitted to the paper's own equations. No load-bearing step reduces by construction to a self-definition, a fitted input renamed as prediction, or a self-citation chain; the relation between redshift drift and flux drift follows from standard cosmological kinematics without circular closure. The detectability timeline claims rest on unverified technical premises but do not exhibit the enumerated circularity patterns.
Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger
axioms (3)
- domain assumption The universe expands according to the standard FLRW model, producing redshift drift of order 10^{-10} to 10^{-9} per decade
- domain assumption Kinematic contamination from peculiar velocities can be overcome with the proposed strategies
- domain assumption SKA1-mid can achieve flux stability of 10^{-6}
Lean theorems connected to this paper
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IndisputableMonolith/Cost/FunctionalEquation.leanwashburn_uniqueness_aczel unclear?
unclearRelation between the paper passage and the cited Recognition theorem.
The redshift drift for FLRW models is given by ż = H0(1+z)−H(z) (eq. 2.1) … ΔFν/Fν = −α Δz/(1+z) (eq. 4.5)
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IndisputableMonolith/Foundation/RealityFromDistinction.leanreality_from_one_distinction unclear?
unclearRelation between the paper passage and the cited Recognition theorem.
Kinematic contamination … flux stability ΔF/F ∼ 10^{-6}
What do these tags mean?
- matches
- The paper's claim is directly supported by a theorem in the formal canon.
- supports
- The theorem supports part of the paper's argument, but the paper may add assumptions or extra steps.
- extends
- The paper goes beyond the formal theorem; the theorem is a base layer rather than the whole result.
- uses
- The paper appears to rely on the theorem as machinery.
- contradicts
- The paper's claim conflicts with a theorem or certificate in the canon.
- unclear
- Pith found a possible connection, but the passage is too broad, indirect, or ambiguous to say the theorem truly supports the claim.
Reference graph
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discussion (0)
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