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When will we observe binary black holes precessing?

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arxiv 1908.00555 v2 pith:AF3DC3PK submitted 2019-08-01 gr-qc

classification gr-qc
keywords precessionastrophysicalbinarydetectionsdistributionmeasurementsobservesignal
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal
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abstract

After eleven gravitational-wave detections from compact-binary mergers, we are yet to observe the striking general-relativistic phenomenon of orbital precession. Measurements of precession would provide valuable insights into the distribution of black-hole spins, and therefore into astrophysical binary formation mechanisms. Using our recent two-harmonic approximation of precessing-binary signals~\cite{Fairhurst:2019_2harm}, we introduce the ``precession signal-to-noise ratio'', $\rho_p$. We demonstrate that this can be used to clearly identify whether precession was measured in an observation (by comparison with both current detections and simulated signals), and can immediately quantify the measurability of precession in a given signal, which currently requires computationally expensive parameter-estimation studies. $\rho_p$ has numerous potential applications to signal searches, source-property measurements, and population studies. We give one example: assuming one possible astrophysical spin distribution, we predict that precession has a one in $\sim 25$ chance of being observed in any detection.

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Cited by 2 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. Detecting regular precession using a new gravitational waveform model directly parameterized by both precession amplitude and frequency

    gr-qc 2025-09 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    A new toy inspiral waveform parameterized directly by precession amplitude and frequency predicts that precession is most detectable at 'plus nulls' and in a majority of isotropic maximal-spin black-hole binaries out ...

  2. The first decade of gravitational-wave measurements of black hole spins

    gr-qc 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 1.0 of 10

    A review summarizing formation-channel predictions, waveform effects, and population-level constraints on stellar-mass black hole spins from the first decade of gravitational-wave observations.

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