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Old Data, New Forensics: The First Second of SN 1987A Neutrino Emission
High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Submitted 13 Jun 2023
abstract compiled · 2026-09-23 · no language-model review
The authors' main claim However, even considering the low neutrino counts, the models generally disagree with data. What can cause this?
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The paper's own sentences, arranged. Each label is drawn from a closed vocabulary; the number beside it is the probability the classifier gave that label. Numbers in the tables are the authors', checked by code. No sentence in this record was written by a model.
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The abstract, sentence by sentence
The next Milky Way supernova will be an epochal event in multi-messenger astronomy, critical to tests of supernovae, neutrinos, and new physics. Realizing this potential depends on having realistic simulations of core collapse. We investigate the neutrino predictions of nearly all modern models (1-, 2-, and 3-d) over the first $\simeq$1 s, making the first detailed comparisons of these models to each other and to the SN 1987A neutrino data. Even with different methods and inputs, the models generally agree with each other. However, even considering the low neutrino counts, the models generally disagree with data. What can cause this? We show that neither neutrino oscillations nor different progenitor masses appear to be a sufficient solution. We outline urgently needed work.
background contribution method result interpretation main claim
| # | sentence | role | the authors' own work | states the main conclusion | strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| s0 | The next Milky Way supernova will be an epochal event in multi-messenger astronomy, critical to tests of supernovae, neutrinos, and new physics. | background 1.00 | 0.05 | 0.03 | asserted 0.99 |
| s1 | Realizing this potential depends on having realistic simulations of core collapse. | background 0.84 | 0.05 | 0.02 | asserted 0.99 |
| s2 | We investigate the neutrino predictions of nearly all modern models (1-, 2-, and 3-d) over the first $\simeq$1 s, making the first detailed comparisons of these models to each other and to the SN 1987A neutrino data. | contribution 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.07 | asserted 0.98 |
| s3 | Even with different methods and inputs, the models generally agree with each other. | result 1.00 | 0.74 | 0.10 | asserted 0.97 |
| s4 | However, even considering the low neutrino counts, the models generally disagree with data. What can cause this? | result 0.92 | 0.70 | 0.34 | asserted 0.98 |
| s5 | We show that neither neutrino oscillations nor different progenitor masses appear to be a sufficient solution. | result 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.38 | asserted 0.90 |
| s6 | We outline urgently needed work. | future work 1.00 | 0.62 | 0.10 | unclear 0.55 |
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The paper
Original abstract
The next Milky Way supernova will be an epochal event in multi-messenger astronomy, critical to tests of supernovae, neutrinos, and new physics. Realizing this potential depends on having realistic simulations of core collapse. We investigate the neutrino predictions of nearly all modern models (1-, 2-, and 3-d) over the first $\simeq$1 s, making the first detailed comparisons of these models to each other and to the SN 1987A neutrino data. Even with different methods and inputs, the models generally agree with each other. However, even considering the low neutrino counts, the models generally disagree with data. What can cause this? We show that neither neutrino oscillations nor different progenitor masses appear to be a sufficient solution. We outline urgently needed work.
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References
How the literature uses it
14 arXiv papers cite this in 34 sentences
Papers citing it · 28 sentences without a confident label
Contests it 1 paper
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Instead, in Ref. [ref] the number of events and their energies were separately tested, which means, among other issues, that the event energies of a SN model for the first 1.5 s were compared with data within an 0.5 s period.
Supernova Simulations Confront SN 1987A Neutrinos · First second of emission · contest 0.86
Uses its method or tool 1 paper
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We illustrate this point by following the approach of Ref. [ref] for the event spectrum, although with some differences in detail.
Supernova Simulations Confront SN 1987A Neutrinos · First second of emission · 0.96
Compares with it 1 paper
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We thank the authors of Ref. [ref] for comments that have led to a detailed comparison in our Appendix D.
Supernova Simulations Confront SN 1987A Neutrinos · Acknowledgments · 0.93
Cites it as background 2 papers
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SN 1987A has been one of the prime focuses of the SN community since its explosion (for 2023 papers see, e.g., [ref] ).
Supernovae in 2023 (review): possible breakthroughs by late observations · The breakthrough: evidence for exploding jets · 0.98
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Another study [ref] focused on the first $∼0.5$–1.5 s of neutrino emission and examined a number of 1D, 2D, and 3D simulations.
Neutrinos and nucleosynthesis of elements · Presupernova and supernova neutrino detection · 0.89
What it cites · 102 sentences without a confident label
Contests 5 papers
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We exclude four models from our statistical tests: the 1-d Fornax models from Ref. [ref] that have a known bug [ref] , a 3-d simulation paper [ref] that reports neutrino luminosities but not average energies, and the Prometheus-Vertex 2-d [ref] and 3-d [ref] simulations, which only run to 0.38 s.
The Progenitor Dependence of Three-Dimensional Core-Collapse Supernovae · Supernova simulations · contest 0.74
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We exclude four models from our statistical tests: the 1-d Fornax models from Ref. [ref] that have a known bug [ref] , a 3-d simulation paper [ref] that reports neutrino luminosities but not average energies, and the Prometheus-Vertex 2-d [ref] and 3-d [ref] simulations, which only run to 0.38 s.
Progenitor-dependent Explosion Dynamics in Self-consistent, Axisymmetric Simulations of Neutrino-driven Core-collapse Supernovae · Supernova simulations · contest 0.74
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We exclude four models from our statistical tests: the 1-d Fornax models from Ref. [ref] that have a known bug [ref] , a 3-d simulation paper [ref] that reports neutrino luminosities but not average energies, and the Prometheus-Vertex 2-d [ref] and 3-d [ref] simulations, which only run to 0.38 s.
Global Comparison of Core-Collapse Supernova Simulations in Spherical Symmetry · Supernova simulations · contest 0.74
Uses the method or tool of 9 papers
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Fortunately, in Ref. [ref] , a good analytical approximation for $f(E_ν)$ has been found (we include the $E_ν^2$ factor in the phase-space integral, not the distribution function):
Monte Carlo Study of Supernova Neutrino Spectra Formation · Neutrino energy spectra and luminosities · 0.98
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To model the detected spectra, we follow standard calculations (e.g., Refs. [ref] ) and give details in S.M.
Comparative analysis of SN1987A antineutrino fluence · Comparing models · 0.97
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To model the detected spectra, we follow standard calculations (e.g., Refs. [ref] ) and give details in S.M.
Improved analysis of SN1987A antineutrino events · Comparing models · 0.97
Uses data or values from 10 papers
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For all modern 1-, 2-, and 3-d models with 20$M_⊙$ progenitors [ref] , we collect information on their neutrino fluxes and spectra.
Global Comparison of Core-Collapse Supernova Simulations in Spherical Symmetry · Comparing models · 0.87
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For all modern 1-, 2-, and 3-d models with 20$M_⊙$ progenitors [ref] , we collect information on their neutrino fluxes and spectra.
The Development of Explosions in Axisymmetric Ab Initio Core-Collapse Supernova Simulations of 12-25 $M_\odot$ Stars · Comparing models · 0.87
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For all modern 1-, 2-, and 3-d models with 20$M_⊙$ progenitors [ref] , we collect information on their neutrino fluxes and spectra.
Two Dimensional Core-Collapse Supernova Explosions Aided by General Relativity with Multidimensional Neutrino Transport · Comparing models · 0.87
Compares with 1 paper
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For the five luminosity profiles from Ref. [ref] , as shown in Fig. [ref], two are significantly lower than ours at all times, making them closer to the Kam-II data.
Supernova Simulations Confront SN 1987A Neutrinos · Model selection compared to Fiorillo et al. (2023) · 0.95
Cites as support 3 papers
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The poor agreement may indicate that neutrino oscillations need to be implemented in supernova simulations [ref] .
Fast Neutrino Flavor Conversion in Core-Collapse Supernovae: A Parametric Study in 1D Models · Possible Solutions: Neutrino Oscillations · 0.98
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The poor agreement may indicate that neutrino oscillations need to be implemented in supernova simulations [ref] .
Fast Neutrino Flavor Conversions can Help and Hinder Neutrino-Driven Explosions · Possible Solutions: Neutrino Oscillations · 0.98
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The poor agreement may indicate that neutrino oscillations need to be implemented in supernova simulations [ref] .
Roles of fast neutrino-flavor conversion on the neutrino-heating mechanism of core-collapse supernova · Possible Solutions: Neutrino Oscillations · 0.98
Cites as background 4 papers
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In core-collapse supernovae [ref] , the white-dwarf-like iron core of a massive star collapses to form a proto-neutron star (PNS), releasing nearly all of the gravitational binding energy difference, $E_tot ≃(3/5) G M_PNS^2/R_PNS ≃3 ×10^53 erg$, in neutrinos of all flavors with comparable fluences.
Explosion Mechanisms of Core-Collapse Supernovae · Review of Supernova Models · 1.00
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In core-collapse supernovae [ref] , the white-dwarf-like iron core of a massive star collapses to form a proto-neutron star (PNS), releasing nearly all of the gravitational binding energy difference, $E_tot ≃(3/5) G M_PNS^2/R_PNS ≃3 ×10^53 erg$, in neutrinos of all flavors with comparable fluences.
Progenitors of core-collapse supernovae · Review of Supernova Models · 1.00
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In core-collapse supernovae [ref] , the white-dwarf-like iron core of a massive star collapses to form a proto-neutron star (PNS), releasing nearly all of the gravitational binding energy difference, $E_tot ≃(3/5) G M_PNS^2/R_PNS ≃3 ×10^53 erg$, in neutrinos of all flavors with comparable fluences.
Core-Collapse Supernova Explosion Theory · Review of Supernova Models · 1.00
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