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Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics in a Machine Learning Earth System Model

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arxiv 2406.08632 v1 pith:EW2ZFLCR submitted 2024-06-12 physics.ao-ph cs.LG

Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics in a Machine Learning Earth System Model

classification physics.ao-ph cs.LG
keywords coupleddynamicsmodeloceanocean-atmosphereseasonalatmosphereclimate
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
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Seasonal climate forecasts are socioeconomically important for managing the impacts of extreme weather events and for planning in sectors like agriculture and energy. Climate predictability on seasonal timescales is tied to boundary effects of the ocean on the atmosphere and coupled interactions in the ocean-atmosphere system. We present the Ocean-linked-atmosphere (Ola) model, a high-resolution (0.25{\deg}) Artificial Intelligence/ Machine Learning (AI/ML) coupled earth-system model which separately models the ocean and atmosphere dynamics using an autoregressive Spherical Fourier Neural Operator architecture, with a view towards enabling fast, accurate, large ensemble forecasts on the seasonal timescale. We find that Ola exhibits learned characteristics of ocean-atmosphere coupled dynamics including tropical oceanic waves with appropriate phase speeds, and an internally generated El Ni\~no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) having realistic amplitude, geographic structure, and vertical structure within the ocean mixed layer. We present initial evidence of skill in forecasting the ENSO which compares favorably to the SPEAR model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

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Cited by 5 Pith papers

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  2. Njord: A Probabilistic Graph Neural Network for Ensemble Ocean Forecasting

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  3. PnP-Corrector: A Universal Correction Framework for Coupled Spatiotemporal Forecasting

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    PnP-Corrector decouples physics simulation from error correction to counter reciprocal error amplification in coupled spatiotemporal forecasting, cutting error by 29% in a 300-day ocean-atmosphere test.

  4. PnP-Corrector: A Universal Correction Framework for Coupled Spatiotemporal Forecasting

    cs.AI 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    PnP-Corrector decouples physics simulation from error correction via a plug-and-play agent, cutting error by 29% in 300-day global ocean-atmosphere forecasts.

  5. PnP-Corrector: A Universal Correction Framework for Coupled Spatiotemporal Forecasting

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