On the practicality of quantum sieving algorithms for the shortest vector problem
Pith reviewed 2026-05-23 18:32 UTC · model grok-4.3
The pith
Even under optimistic assumptions, quantum sieving for the shortest vector problem in dimension 400 requires about 10^13 physical qubits and 10^31 years.
A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.
Core claim
Under very optimistic assumptions including circuit-level noise of 10^{-5}, 100 ns code cycles, 1 μs reaction time, state-of-the-art arithmetic circuits and quantum error-correction protocols, the best sieving algorithms still require approximately 10^{13} physical qubits and 10^{31} years to solve SVP on a lattice of dimension 400. A 6-GHz-clock-rate single-core classical computer would take roughly the same amount of time. The authors conclude there is currently little to no quantum speedup in the dimensions of cryptographic interest.
What carries the argument
Resource estimation model for quantum sieving that includes fixed-point quantum arithmetic, non-asymptotic Grover search, QRAM costs, and quantum error correction.
Load-bearing premise
The assumed performance of quantum error correction, arithmetic circuits, QRAM, and non-asymptotic Grover search costs under the given noise and timing parameters holds at the scales required.
What would settle it
An experiment or simulation showing that the total runtime or qubit overhead for quantum sieving on dimension 100 or similar scales much better than the extrapolated model, or hardware achieving the noise rate with fewer qubits.
Figures
read the original abstract
One of the main candidates of post-quantum cryptography is lattice-based cryptography. Its cryptographic security against quantum attackers is based on the worst-case hardness of lattice problems like the shortest vector problem (SVP), which asks to find the shortest non-zero vector in an integer lattice. Asymptotic quantum speedups for solving SVP are known and rely on Grover's search. However, to assess the security of lattice-based cryptography against these Grover-like quantum speedups, it is necessary to carry out a precise resource estimation beyond asymptotic scalings. In this work, we perform a careful analysis on the resources required to implement several sieving algorithms aided by Grover's search for dimensions of cryptographic interests. For such, we take into account fixed-point quantum arithmetic operations, non-asymptotic Grover's search, the cost of using quantum random access memory (QRAM), different physical architectures, and quantum error correction. We find that even under very optimistic assumptions like circuit-level noise of $10^{-5}$, code cycles of 100 ns, reaction time of 1 $\mu$s, and using state-of-the-art arithmetic circuits and quantum error-correction protocols, the best sieving algorithms require $\approx 10^{13}$ physical qubits and $\approx 10^{31}$ years to solve SVP on a lattice of dimension 400, which is roughly the dimension for minimally secure post-quantum cryptographic standards currently being proposed by NIST. We estimate that a 6-GHz-clock-rate single-core classical computer would take roughly the same amount of time to solve the same problem. We conclude that there is currently little to no quantum speedup in the dimensions of cryptographic interest and the possibility of realising a considerable quantum speedup using quantum sieving algorithms would require significant breakthroughs in theoretical protocols and hardware development.
Editorial analysis
A structured set of objections, weighed in public.
Referee Report
Summary. The paper conducts a detailed resource estimation for quantum sieving algorithms (aided by Grover search) applied to the shortest vector problem (SVP) in dimensions of cryptographic interest (~400). It incorporates models for fixed-point arithmetic, non-asymptotic Grover costs, QRAM overhead, physical architectures, and quantum error correction under optimistic parameters (10^{-5} circuit noise, 100 ns code cycles, 1 μs reaction time). The central conclusion is that the best variants still require ~10^{13} physical qubits and ~10^{31} years, comparable to a 6 GHz classical single-core machine, implying negligible quantum speedup at these scales.
Significance. If the estimates hold, the work supplies concrete, dimension-specific evidence that current quantum sieving approaches do not undermine lattice-based post-quantum cryptography at NIST-relevant dimensions. Explicit documentation of all modeling choices for arithmetic circuits, Grover search, QRAM, and QEC performance constitutes a strength, enabling future sensitivity analyses. The comparison to classical runtime further grounds the practicality assessment.
major comments (2)
- [§4] §4 (resource estimation for sieving), the non-asymptotic Grover iteration count: the overhead for amplitude amplification to reach the target success probability is stated but the propagation of this factor through the total physical-qubit and wall-clock-time budgets (Tables 5–7) should be shown explicitly, as it directly scales the headline 10^{31}-year figure.
- [§3.2 and §5] §3.2 (QRAM model) and §5 (QEC overhead): the assumed O(log N) depth per access and the surface-code patch size under 10^{-5} noise are load-bearing for the 10^{13}-qubit count; a sensitivity table varying the QRAM depth assumption by ±50% would strengthen the claim that hardware breakthroughs are required.
minor comments (3)
- [Figure 2] Figure 2 caption: the legend for the different sieving variants is too small for readability; enlarge or move to a table.
- [§2 and §4] Notation: the symbol T for both classical and quantum wall-clock time is overloaded; introduce subscripts (T_class, T_quant) in §2 and §4.
- [References] Reference list: the 2023–2024 QEC papers on reaction-time assumptions are cited but the exact parameter values taken from each should be tabulated for traceability.
Simulated Author's Rebuttal
We thank the referee for their thorough review and constructive feedback on our resource estimation for quantum sieving algorithms. The suggestions for greater explicitness in our calculations will improve the manuscript's clarity without altering its central conclusions. We address each major comment below.
read point-by-point responses
-
Referee: [§4] §4 (resource estimation for sieving), the non-asymptotic Grover iteration count: the overhead for amplitude amplification to reach the target success probability is stated but the propagation of this factor through the total physical-qubit and wall-clock-time budgets (Tables 5–7) should be shown explicitly, as it directly scales the headline 10^{31}-year figure.
Authors: We agree that explicit propagation of the amplitude amplification overhead would enhance transparency. This factor is already included in the headline estimates and all intermediate calculations, but we will revise Tables 5–7 (and associated text in §4) to include a dedicated column or footnote tracing its contribution to physical qubit counts and wall-clock time. This change will be made in the next version. revision: yes
-
Referee: [§3.2 and §5] §3.2 (QRAM model) and §5 (QEC overhead): the assumed O(log N) depth per access and the surface-code patch size under 10^{-5} noise are load-bearing for the 10^{13}-qubit count; a sensitivity table varying the QRAM depth assumption by ±50% would strengthen the claim that hardware breakthroughs are required.
Authors: The O(log N) QRAM depth and surface-code parameters are indeed central assumptions, chosen as optimistic baselines consistent with the literature. We will add a sensitivity table (new Table in §3.2 or §5) showing the effect of varying QRAM depth by ±50% on total resources. This will demonstrate that the prohibitive scaling persists across the range, reinforcing the need for hardware and theoretical advances. The table will be included in the revision. revision: yes
Circularity Check
No significant circularity in resource estimation derivations
full rationale
The paper performs resource estimation for quantum sieving algorithms using explicitly stated external models for fixed-point arithmetic, non-asymptotic Grover search, QRAM overhead, and QEC performance under given noise and timing parameters. No load-bearing step reduces a claimed runtime or qubit count to a fitted parameter or self-citation defined by the same analysis; all quantitative results are built from documented assumptions and standard circuit costs independent of the target SVP dimension conclusions. The central claim of negligible quantum advantage at cryptographic dimensions therefore remains self-contained against external benchmarks.
Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger
free parameters (3)
- circuit-level noise =
10^{-5}
- code cycle time =
100 ns
- reaction time =
1 μs
axioms (2)
- domain assumption Fixed-point quantum arithmetic, non-asymptotic Grover search, and QRAM cost models are accurate at the scales considered
- domain assumption State-of-the-art error-correction protocols achieve the stated performance under the given noise
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