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Characterization of seven transiting systems including four warm Jupiters from SOPHIE and TESS

T0 review · 3 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-11 · deepseek-v4-flash

Pith's one-line read Three new transiting warm Jupiters are characterized, two with massive outer companions, and one TESS candidate is shown to be an eclipsing binary.

desk verdict Solid warm Jupiter discovery paper undermined slightly by an abstract that overstates TOI-2295b's radius precision; otherwise a competent, honest characterization. read the letter →

arxiv 2412.08527 v1 pith:PY4RPCIR submitted 2024-12-11 astro-ph.EP

classification astro-ph.EP
keywords warmJupiterstransitingexoplanetsradialvelocityfollow-upTESStransittimingvariationseccentricplanetsfalsepositiveidentification
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

This paper reports the discovery and characterization of three new transiting warm Jupiters—TOI-2295b, TOI-2537b, and TOI-5110b—with orbital periods between 30 and 94 days, masses between 0.9 and 2.9 Jupiter masses, and radii near 1.0 to 1.5 Jupiter radii. It also refines the parameters of two known warm Jupiters, TOI-1836b and TOI-5076b, and shows that the TESS candidate TOI-4168.01 is not a planet but an eclipsing binary whose signal appears anti-phased with the transit ephemeris. The systems matter because long-period warm Jupiters are rare and their properties, including eccentricity and temperature, carry information about how giant planets form and migrate.

What carries the argument

The analysis runs on combined TESS photometry and SOPHIE radial velocities, with HARPS and FEROS data for TOI-2537, fitted jointly by the EXOFASTv2 package, a joint photometry-and-radial-velocity modeling tool that solves stellar, Keplerian, and transit parameters together. Two pieces of machinery do the heavy lifting for the headline results: a Gaussian prior on the planet-to-star radius ratio for TOI-2295b, which converts the grazing transit's weakly constrained stellar-like radius into a planetary radius capped at 3 Jupiter radii, and a transit-timing fit within the same joint model that absorbs the roughly 12-minute transit timing variations seen in TOI-2537b. Companion mass limits come from Gaia astrometry through the GaiaPMEX tool, and the false-positive checks use bisector spans, multiple spectral masks, and the TRICERATOPS statistical validation package.

What would settle it

Measure a future TOI-2295b transit with a space telescope at higher signal-to-noise than TESS and fit the transit depth without the SPOC-informed radius prior; if the depth implies a radius far outside the 1.0-1.5 Jupiter-radius range, the prior-driven radius claim is refuted.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The paper's central claim is that three previously unconfirmed TESS signals are real transiting giant planets: TOI-2295b (period 30.033302 days, mass 0.875 Jupiter masses, grazing impact parameter 1.056), TOI-2537b (period 94.1022 days, mass 1.307 Jupiter masses, radius 1.004 Jupiter radii, equilibrium temperature 307 K), and TOI-5110b (period 30.158577 days, mass 2.90 Jupiter masses, radius 1.069 Jupiter radii, eccentricity 0.745). In two of the systems the radial velocities reveal additional outer giant companions, TOI-2295c and TOI-2537c, with minimum masses of 5.61 and 7.23 Jupiter masses and periods of 966.5 and about 1920 days. The paper further identifies significant transit timing variations for TOI-2537b, consistent with perturbation by its outer companion, and classifies TOI-4168.01 as a firm false positive caused by a stellar secondary eclipse. For TOI-4081.01 the radial-velocity signal is detected but a blended eclipsing binary cannot be excluded, so its planetary nature is left open.

Load-bearing premise

The weakest load-bearing assumption is that TOI-2295b's radius is capped by a prior at about three Jupiter radii; the grazing transit alone would allow a stellar-like radius, so the quoted radius rests on that prior even though the planet's existence and mass are secure.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • TOI-2537b is a temperate Jupiter at 307 ± 15 K and can serve as a low-irradiation control for models of hot Jupiter radius inflation.
  • TOI-5110b's eccentricity of 0.745, with a final circular-orbit semi-major axis of about 0.096 AU, makes it a candidate proto-hot Jupiter if high-eccentricity migration is operating.
  • TOI-1836b has a transmission spectroscopy metric of 103.5, above the recommended threshold, and falls in the sub-Saturn valley, making it a strong atmospheric-characterization target.
  • The grazing transit of TOI-2295b makes its light-curve shape highly sensitive to inclination changes, providing a probe of dynamical interactions with the outer planet TOI-2295c.
  • The detected transit timing variations in TOI-2537b are consistent with gravitational perturbation by TOI-2537c, and additional transits should refine the system's dynamical model.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • A future high-cadence space observation of a TOI-2295b transit that resolves the grazing ingress and egress would directly test the prior-dependent radius claim.
  • With additional TESS or CHEOPS transits over the next few years, the roughly 12-minute transit timing variations of TOI-2537b could yield a dynamical measurement of TOI-2537c's true mass, going beyond the radial-velocity minimum mass.
  • If TOI-5110b is confirmed as a proto-hot Jupiter, a targeted search for a hidden companion with radial-velocity precision below 10 m/s could distinguish high-eccentricity migration from in-situ eccentricity excitation.
  • The clear anti-phased radial-velocity signature of TOI-4168.01 suggests that other single-transit TESS candidates with large radial-velocity amplitudes should be checked for eclipsing-binary phase alignment before being confirmed as planets.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

3 major / 5 minor

Summary. This manuscript reports the characterization of seven transiting systems observed with TESS photometry, SOPHIE radial velocities, and high-spatial-resolution imaging. Three systems (TOI-2295, TOI-2537, TOI-5110) are presented as newly discovered warm Jupiters; TOI-2295 and TOI-2537 each host an additional outer giant companion. The paper also reports independent SOPHIE RV detections of the previously known planets TOI-1836b and TOI-5076b, re-examines the candidate TOI-4081.01 with caution, and identifies TOI-4168.01 as a false positive caused by an eclipsing binary. The analysis includes Bayesian model comparisons, EXOFASTv2 joint fits, bisector and mask tests, speckle imaging, TTV modeling for TOI-2537b, and dynamical stability checks.

Significance. If the main results hold, the paper adds three long-period transiting warm Jupiters and two outer giant companions to a relatively sparse population, including TOI-5110b, one of the most eccentric transiting planets known, and TOI-2537b, a temperate Jupiter useful as a low-irradiation control for radius-inflation models. The paper is thorough in its false-positive vetting, includes multi-instrument RV data, reports a significant TTV detection for TOI-2537b with a plausible dynamical explanation, and provides a clean identification of a false positive in TOI-4168.01. The central RV detections for the newly discovered planets are statistically strong, and the imaging and bisector analyses support their planetary nature.

major comments (3)
  1. [Abstract, Sect. 4.2.1.2, Tables 7 and D.2] The abstract's statement that TOI-2295b, TOI-2537b, and TOI-5110b have radii ranging from 1.0 to 1.5 RJ is not uniformly supported by the data. For TOI-2295b, the quoted radius of 1.47+0.85-0.53 RJ (Table 7) is obtained by imposing a Gaussian prior on RP/R* (Table D.2: N[0.03, 0.21]) that effectively caps the radius near 3 RJ; the unconstrained EXOFASTv2 fit returns a stellar-like radius of 7.6+6.2-4.5 RJ (Sect. 4.2.1.2). The 68% interval of the constrained radius extends to 2.32 RJ, outside the abstract's 1.0-1.5 RJ range. The planet's existence and mass are robust, but the abstract overstates the precision of the radius determination and should be revised to present the radius as poorly constrained or prior-limited.
  2. [Sect. 4.2.4.1, Table 6] The claim that TOI-5076b is independently detected in SOPHIE RVs is overstated. The unconstrained one-Keplerian model did not converge, and the informed model with Gaussian priors centered on the QLP ephemeris gives only Delta ln Z = 3.4 over the no-planet model (Table 6), with K = 8.2 +/- 2.6 m/s, a ~3 sigma detection. This is acknowledged in the text as below the commonly accepted detection threshold, and the CCF shows a broad secondary component (Fig. 10). The abstract should either weaken the 'independently detected' phrasing for TOI-5076b or explicitly quantify the modest significance of the SOPHIE-only detection.
  3. [Sect. 4.2.5.1] For TOI-1836b, the bisector dispersion of 22 m/s is larger than the RV residual dispersion (12.3 m/s) and is comparable to the RV semi-amplitude K = 8 +/- 2 m/s. Although the lack of bisector-RV correlation and the TRICERATOPS validation mitigate the concern, the paper should explicitly address whether the 4-sigma RV detection could be affected by a varying CCF or an unresolved blended component, especially given the nearby star reported by Chontos et al. (2024) and the fact that the candidate radius lies at the 8 R_Earth validation boundary.
minor comments (5)
  1. [Appendix E, Table E.1] The header of Table E.1 contains 'TOI-2237' for what should be TOI-2537, and 'FEEROS' appears to be a typo for FEROS.
  2. [Table 2] The observing log lists 'Janurary 2021' for HARPS; the spelling should be corrected.
  3. [Sect. 2.2] The sentence describing the average exposure times and S/N would benefit from a consistent statement of whether the quoted S/N is per pixel or per resolution element, as the definitions differ for FEROS.
  4. [Table 5] The stellar parameters for TOI-4168 are incomplete in the main table (e.g., logg and mass are missing without a reference to Table 9); adding a footnote pointing to Sect. 4.4.2 and Table 9 would improve readability.
  5. [Abstract and Sect. 1] The abstract describes TOI-5110b's eccentricity as 0.75 +/- 0.03, while Table 7 gives 0.745+0.030-0.027; these are consistent, but the abstract could cite the precise value to avoid apparent round-off discrepancies.

Circularity Check

1 steps flagged · score 4.0 of 10

TOI-2295b's quoted radius is partly self-definitional: a 3-RJ prior derived from the same TESS depth replaces an unconstrained 7.6-RJ solution; masses and periods remain independently constrained.

  1. self definitional [Sect. 4.2.1.2; Table D.2; Table 7; Abstract]
    "Our study encounters that scenario, with an unconstrained radius range of 7.6+6.2−4.5 RJ centered on values that would be stellar rather than planetary. If this were a valid result, we would expect to observe a distinct secondary eclipse, which is not seen. To address this issue, we introduced a Gaussian prior on the ratio of planetary radius to the stellar radius (RP/R⋆, see Table D.2), informed by the square of the transit depth value supplied by SPOC. ... The final results interpret TOI-2295b as a warm giant planet with a radius of 1.47+0.85−0.53 RJ"

    By construction, the SPOC 'transit depth' is δ=(R_P/R*)^2, so the Gaussian prior on R_P/R* is informed by the same TESS photometric signal that EXOFASTv2 is fitting. The unconstrained posterior (7.6 RJ) shows that the light curve alone does not determine the radius; the quoted 1.47 RJ value is the result of the imposed prior/cap (maximum 3 RJ), not of an independent measurement. Presenting TOI-2295b inside the abstract's 'radii ranging from 1.0 to 1.5 RJ' range therefore reports a prior-bounded estimate as if it were a measured radius. The paper's own caveat ('radius uncertain') limits but does not erase this partial circularity.

full rationale

The paper's central claims—the masses, periods, and eccentricities of TOI-2295b/c, TOI-2537b/c, and TOI-5110b, and the binary false-positive classification of TOI-4168—are supported by independent SOPHIE/HARPS/FEROS radial velocities and by TESS transit timing/ephemerides, not by the same posteriors being rediscovered. The one place where the derivation becomes self-feeding is TOI-2295b's radius: the unconstrained light-curve fit gives a stellar-like radius, a Gaussian prior on R_P/R* is then imposed with its justification drawn from the same TESS transit depth (δ=(R_P/R*)^2) plus a 3-RJ cap, and the resulting 1.47 RJ value is presented in the abstract's '1.0 to 1.5 RJ' range. This makes that particular radius claim partly prior-defined rather than data-defined. The manuscript does candidly say the radius is uncertain, so this is a partial, parameter-level circularity, not a collapse of the paper's central discoveries. Where external comparisons exist (Montalto et al. 2024; Chontos et al. 2024), the derived parameters agree, showing the central results are not artifacts of the model. The paper's self-citations (Jackson et al. 2021, Gupta et al. 2023, Frommer et al. in prep) are used as applied methods on real data and are not uniqueness theorems or answers smuggled in by citation; they do not raise the score. The TOI-1836/TOI-5076 detections use TESS-informed priors on period and mid-transit time, which is standard practice for RV confirmation and not circular. Overall score 4.

Assumptions & free parameters 8 free parameters · 6 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The central detection and masses rest on standard Keplerian fitting; no invented physical entities are introduced. The main non-standard input is the RP/R* prior for TOI-2295b, plus standard nuisance parameters such as jitter, offsets, and baselines. Stellar parameters enter as priors from SED analysis, which is standard but assumed accurate. The TTV and eccentricity interpretations depend on dynamical assumptions that the paper labels preliminary.

free parameters (8)
  • Per-instrument RV zero-points (gamma_rel) = Table E.1: -50381.5 +/- 1.4 to 70291.5 +/- 1.9 m/s
    Each instrument gets a fitted velocity offset in the joint model; these offsets do not affect the planetary signals.
  • Per-instrument RV jitter (sigma_J) = Table E.1: e.g., TOI-2537 FEROS 64+14-11, SOPHIE 14.2+4.1-3.8, HARPS 12.2+4.9-4.5 m/s
    Fitted to absorb stellar activity and unmodeled noise; for TOI-2537 the FEROS jitter is about four times the formal RV error.
  • Photometric baseline flux and added variance per light curve = Table E.1 values per TESS sector and CHEOPS visit
    Each light curve is fit with baseline and variance terms to handle systematics.
  • TOI-4081 TESS dilution factor = 0.0660 +/- 0.0020
    Corrects for the Gaia DR3 neighbor at 2.17 arcsec, which SPOC did not account for in the TESS aperture.
  • TTV mid-transit offsets for TOI-2537b = Table I.1: -9.38 +/- 2.16, +18.56 +/- 2.35, -7.69 +/- 2.76 minutes
    Three transit times are fit independently to detect deviations from the linear ephemeris.
  • TOI-2295b radius through RP/R* prior = 1.47+0.85-0.53 RJ
    The radius is not independently measured; an unconstrained fit gives stellar-like values, and the quoted result follows from a Gaussian prior centered on the SPOC transit depth with a cap at 3 RJ.
  • SED extinction A_V = Not tabulated; capped by Schlegel et al. line-of-sight limits
    Stellar SED fits treat extinction as free, which can affect stellar radius and therefore planetary radius.
  • Limb-darkening coefficients u1 and u2 per band = Table E.1 values
    EXOFASTv2 interpolates limb darkening from Claret and Bloemen (2011), and the table lists the sampled values as nuisance parameters.
assumptions (6)
  • domain assumption TESS PDC-SAP light curves and SOPHIE DRS RVs are correctly calibrated after the stated corrections and exclusions.
    All results depend on pipeline products; the exclusion of 5.5% of RVs using four pre-defined criteria is assumed unbiased.
  • standard math Keplerian RV and transit models implemented in juliet, radvel, and EXOFASTv2 adequately describe the signals.
    Sections 4.1 and 4.2 use these models; mutual planet-planet interactions are neglected except for TOI-2537 TTVs.
  • domain assumption PHOENIX SED models, Gaia parallaxes, and Torres et al. empirical mass relations give accurate stellar parameters.
    Sect. 3 derives stellar priors that enter the joint fits and propagate to planetary radii and masses.
  • ad hoc to paper The Gaussian prior on RP/R* for TOI-2295b, informed by SPOC transit depth and capped at 3 RJ, is a valid physical constraint.
    Sect. 4.2.1.2 and Table D.2; without this prior the radius posterior is unphysically stellar-like.
  • domain assumption The empirical activity-jitter relation of Hojjatpanah et al. (2020) adequately estimates TOI-2537 stellar jitter, so no Gaussian process is needed.
    Sect. 4.2.2.1; underestimated activity could bias the RV semi-amplitudes.
  • domain assumption For TOI-5110, the 1.084 arcsec companion is too faint (Delta m = 6.2) to mimic the transit, and any bound companion does not significantly affect the RVs.
    Sect. 4.2.3.1; the paper flags residual uncertainty if the companion CCFs are fully aligned with the primary.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of Characterization of seven transiting systems including four warm Jupiters from SOPHIE and TESS." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/PY4RPCIR

@misc{pith2026241208527,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: Characterization of seven transiting systems including four warm Jupiters from SOPHIE and TESS},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/PY4RPCIR}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2412.08527}
}
abstract

We present the study of seven systems, three of which TOI-2295, TOI-2537, and TOI-5110 are newly discovered planetary systems. Through the analysis of TESS photometry, SOPHIE radial velocities, and high-spatial resolution imaging, we found that TOI-2295b, TOI-2537b, and TOI-5110b are transiting warm Jupiters with orbital periods ranging from 30 to 94 d, masses between 0.9 and 2.9 MJ, and radii ranging from 1.0 to 1.5 RJ. Both TOI-2295 and TOI-2537 each harbor at least one additional, outer planet. Their outer planets TOI-2295c and TOI-2537c are characterized by orbital periods of 966.5 +/- 4.3 and 1920^{+230}_{-140} d, respectively, and minimum masses of 5.61^{+0.23}_{-0.24} and 7.2 +/- 0.5 MJ, respectively. We also investigated and characterized the two recently reported warm Jupiters TOI-1836b and TOI-5076b, which we independently detected in SOPHIE RVs. Additionally, we study the planetary candidates TOI-4081.01 and TOI-4168.01. For TOI-4081.01, despite our detection in radial velocities, we cannot rule out perturbation by a blended eclipsing binary and thus exercise caution regarding its planetary nature. On the other hand, we identify TOI-4168.01 as a firm false positive. Finally, we highlight interesting characteristics of these new planetary systems. The transits of TOI-2295b are highly grazing, with an impact parameter of 1.056$^{+0.063}_{-0.043}$. TOI-2537b, in turn, is a temperate Jupiter with an effective temperature of 307+/-15 K and can serve as a valuable low-irradiation control for models of hot Jupiter inflation anomalies. We also detected significant transit timing variations (TTVs) for TOI-2537b, which are likely caused by gravitational interactions with the outer planet TOI-2537c. Finally, TOI-5110b stands out due to its orbital eccentricity of 0.75+/- 0.03, one of the highest planetary eccentricities discovered thus far.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2412.08527 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. TESS PDC-SAP light curves for the seven stars analyzed in this paper. Dashed red vertical lines denote the start of individual [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p004_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Target Pixel Files (TPFs) images from the first observed TESS sector for the seven targets in our analysis, created by [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Contrast curves for the speckle interferometry observations of TOI-1836, TOI-2295, TOI-2537, TOI-4081, TOI-4168, TOI [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_3.png] view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (18 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: : Spectral Energy Distributions (SED) for TOI-1836, TOI-2295, TOI-2537, TOI-4081, TOI-4168, TOI-5076 and TOI-5110. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_4.png]
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: : RVs-bisectors diagram of the 7 stars presented in this study. The [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_5.png]
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: SOPHIE RV measurements of TOI-2295 (top panel), phase-folded RV measurements for TOI-2295c (second panel) and TOI-2295b (third panel), along with the phase-folded TESS light curve for TOI-2295b (bottom panel). The red lines repre￾sent the median of median models using …
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: RV measurements of TOI-2537 (top), phase-folded RVs for TOI-2537c (second panel), phase-folded RVs (third panel) and light curves for TOI-2537b (bottom). The red lines repre￾sent the median models, accounting for TTVs as determined by EXOFASTv2. Residuals are displayed…
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: The difference between the predicted and observed mid￾transit times for TOI-2537b. riod of 94.1022±0.0011 d, with an eccentricity of 0.364±0.039. Additionally, the outer companion exhibits a period of 1920+230 −140 d, a minimum mass of 7.23+0.52 −0.45 MJ , with a eccen…
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: : SOPHIE RV measurements for TOI-5110, overplotted [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_9.png]
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: : TOI-5076’s CCFs and its residual [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p016_10.png]
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: . In both plots, a distinct potential broad secondary CCF [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p017_10.png]
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: : SOPHIE and HARPS-N RV measurements for TOI [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p017_11.png]
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: The SOPHIE RV time series (top), phase-folded RV measurements (middle), and light curves (bottom) of TOI￾1836b. The red lines depict the median models obtained using EXOFASTv2. Residuals of the data are presented at the bottom panels of their respective panels. indica…
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: : RVs for TOI-4081, overplotted by the median Kepler [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p021_13.png]
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: : SOPHIE RVs for TOI-4168AB, overplotted by the me [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p022_14.png]
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: (top panel) presents the mass–period diagram of tran￾siting exoplanets with known mass and radius from the NASA Exoplanet Data Archive8 as of February 26, 2024. Notably, the newly characterized planets in this study are located in the re￾gion of the diagram correspond…
Figure 16
Figure 16. Figure 16: : Detectability of the simulated population of compan [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p025_16.png]
Figure 17
Figure 17. Figure 17: : Stability analysis of the TOI-2537 planetary system. For [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p026_17.png]
Figure 19
Figure 19. Figure 19: : The radius-equilibrium temperature of known giant (R [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p026_19.png]
Figure 20
Figure 20. Figure 20: : The configuration of the TOI-2537b within the habit [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p027_20.png]
Figure 21
Figure 21. Figure 21: : TSM- equilibrium temperature diagram for the popu [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p028_21.png]

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