REVIEW 3 major objections 5 minor 1 cited by
Characterization of seven transiting systems including four warm Jupiters from SOPHIE and TESS
T0 review · 3 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-11 · deepseek-v4-flash
Pith's one-line read Three new transiting warm Jupiters are characterized, two with massive outer companions, and one TESS candidate is shown to be an eclipsing binary.
desk verdict Solid warm Jupiter discovery paper undermined slightly by an abstract that overstates TOI-2295b's radius precision; otherwise a competent, honest characterization. read the letter →
The pith
A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.
The reading
What carries the argument
The analysis runs on combined TESS photometry and SOPHIE radial velocities, with HARPS and FEROS data for TOI-2537, fitted jointly by the EXOFASTv2 package, a joint photometry-and-radial-velocity modeling tool that solves stellar, Keplerian, and transit parameters together. Two pieces of machinery do the heavy lifting for the headline results: a Gaussian prior on the planet-to-star radius ratio for TOI-2295b, which converts the grazing transit's weakly constrained stellar-like radius into a planetary radius capped at 3 Jupiter radii, and a transit-timing fit within the same joint model that absorbs the roughly 12-minute transit timing variations seen in TOI-2537b. Companion mass limits come from Gaia astrometry through the GaiaPMEX tool, and the false-positive checks use bisector spans, multiple spectral masks, and the TRICERATOPS statistical validation package.
What would settle it
Measure a future TOI-2295b transit with a space telescope at higher signal-to-noise than TESS and fit the transit depth without the SPOC-informed radius prior; if the depth implies a radius far outside the 1.0-1.5 Jupiter-radius range, the prior-driven radius claim is refuted.
Extended reading notes
Core claim
The paper's central claim is that three previously unconfirmed TESS signals are real transiting giant planets: TOI-2295b (period 30.033302 days, mass 0.875 Jupiter masses, grazing impact parameter 1.056), TOI-2537b (period 94.1022 days, mass 1.307 Jupiter masses, radius 1.004 Jupiter radii, equilibrium temperature 307 K), and TOI-5110b (period 30.158577 days, mass 2.90 Jupiter masses, radius 1.069 Jupiter radii, eccentricity 0.745). In two of the systems the radial velocities reveal additional outer giant companions, TOI-2295c and TOI-2537c, with minimum masses of 5.61 and 7.23 Jupiter masses and periods of 966.5 and about 1920 days. The paper further identifies significant transit timing variations for TOI-2537b, consistent with perturbation by its outer companion, and classifies TOI-4168.01 as a firm false positive caused by a stellar secondary eclipse. For TOI-4081.01 the radial-velocity signal is detected but a blended eclipsing binary cannot be excluded, so its planetary nature is left open.
Load-bearing premise
The weakest load-bearing assumption is that TOI-2295b's radius is capped by a prior at about three Jupiter radii; the grazing transit alone would allow a stellar-like radius, so the quoted radius rests on that prior even though the planet's existence and mass are secure.
Editorial extensions
If this is right
- TOI-2537b is a temperate Jupiter at 307 ± 15 K and can serve as a low-irradiation control for models of hot Jupiter radius inflation.
- TOI-5110b's eccentricity of 0.745, with a final circular-orbit semi-major axis of about 0.096 AU, makes it a candidate proto-hot Jupiter if high-eccentricity migration is operating.
- TOI-1836b has a transmission spectroscopy metric of 103.5, above the recommended threshold, and falls in the sub-Saturn valley, making it a strong atmospheric-characterization target.
- The grazing transit of TOI-2295b makes its light-curve shape highly sensitive to inclination changes, providing a probe of dynamical interactions with the outer planet TOI-2295c.
- The detected transit timing variations in TOI-2537b are consistent with gravitational perturbation by TOI-2537c, and additional transits should refine the system's dynamical model.
Reading between the lines
- A future high-cadence space observation of a TOI-2295b transit that resolves the grazing ingress and egress would directly test the prior-dependent radius claim.
- With additional TESS or CHEOPS transits over the next few years, the roughly 12-minute transit timing variations of TOI-2537b could yield a dynamical measurement of TOI-2537c's true mass, going beyond the radial-velocity minimum mass.
- If TOI-5110b is confirmed as a proto-hot Jupiter, a targeted search for a hidden companion with radial-velocity precision below 10 m/s could distinguish high-eccentricity migration from in-situ eccentricity excitation.
- The clear anti-phased radial-velocity signature of TOI-4168.01 suggests that other single-transit TESS candidates with large radial-velocity amplitudes should be checked for eclipsing-binary phase alignment before being confirmed as planets.
Editorial analysis
A structured set of objections, weighed in public.
Referee Report
Summary. This manuscript reports the characterization of seven transiting systems observed with TESS photometry, SOPHIE radial velocities, and high-spatial-resolution imaging. Three systems (TOI-2295, TOI-2537, TOI-5110) are presented as newly discovered warm Jupiters; TOI-2295 and TOI-2537 each host an additional outer giant companion. The paper also reports independent SOPHIE RV detections of the previously known planets TOI-1836b and TOI-5076b, re-examines the candidate TOI-4081.01 with caution, and identifies TOI-4168.01 as a false positive caused by an eclipsing binary. The analysis includes Bayesian model comparisons, EXOFASTv2 joint fits, bisector and mask tests, speckle imaging, TTV modeling for TOI-2537b, and dynamical stability checks.
Significance. If the main results hold, the paper adds three long-period transiting warm Jupiters and two outer giant companions to a relatively sparse population, including TOI-5110b, one of the most eccentric transiting planets known, and TOI-2537b, a temperate Jupiter useful as a low-irradiation control for radius-inflation models. The paper is thorough in its false-positive vetting, includes multi-instrument RV data, reports a significant TTV detection for TOI-2537b with a plausible dynamical explanation, and provides a clean identification of a false positive in TOI-4168.01. The central RV detections for the newly discovered planets are statistically strong, and the imaging and bisector analyses support their planetary nature.
major comments (3)
- [Abstract, Sect. 4.2.1.2, Tables 7 and D.2] The abstract's statement that TOI-2295b, TOI-2537b, and TOI-5110b have radii ranging from 1.0 to 1.5 RJ is not uniformly supported by the data. For TOI-2295b, the quoted radius of 1.47+0.85-0.53 RJ (Table 7) is obtained by imposing a Gaussian prior on RP/R* (Table D.2: N[0.03, 0.21]) that effectively caps the radius near 3 RJ; the unconstrained EXOFASTv2 fit returns a stellar-like radius of 7.6+6.2-4.5 RJ (Sect. 4.2.1.2). The 68% interval of the constrained radius extends to 2.32 RJ, outside the abstract's 1.0-1.5 RJ range. The planet's existence and mass are robust, but the abstract overstates the precision of the radius determination and should be revised to present the radius as poorly constrained or prior-limited.
- [Sect. 4.2.4.1, Table 6] The claim that TOI-5076b is independently detected in SOPHIE RVs is overstated. The unconstrained one-Keplerian model did not converge, and the informed model with Gaussian priors centered on the QLP ephemeris gives only Delta ln Z = 3.4 over the no-planet model (Table 6), with K = 8.2 +/- 2.6 m/s, a ~3 sigma detection. This is acknowledged in the text as below the commonly accepted detection threshold, and the CCF shows a broad secondary component (Fig. 10). The abstract should either weaken the 'independently detected' phrasing for TOI-5076b or explicitly quantify the modest significance of the SOPHIE-only detection.
- [Sect. 4.2.5.1] For TOI-1836b, the bisector dispersion of 22 m/s is larger than the RV residual dispersion (12.3 m/s) and is comparable to the RV semi-amplitude K = 8 +/- 2 m/s. Although the lack of bisector-RV correlation and the TRICERATOPS validation mitigate the concern, the paper should explicitly address whether the 4-sigma RV detection could be affected by a varying CCF or an unresolved blended component, especially given the nearby star reported by Chontos et al. (2024) and the fact that the candidate radius lies at the 8 R_Earth validation boundary.
minor comments (5)
- [Appendix E, Table E.1] The header of Table E.1 contains 'TOI-2237' for what should be TOI-2537, and 'FEEROS' appears to be a typo for FEROS.
- [Table 2] The observing log lists 'Janurary 2021' for HARPS; the spelling should be corrected.
- [Sect. 2.2] The sentence describing the average exposure times and S/N would benefit from a consistent statement of whether the quoted S/N is per pixel or per resolution element, as the definitions differ for FEROS.
- [Table 5] The stellar parameters for TOI-4168 are incomplete in the main table (e.g., logg and mass are missing without a reference to Table 9); adding a footnote pointing to Sect. 4.4.2 and Table 9 would improve readability.
- [Abstract and Sect. 1] The abstract describes TOI-5110b's eccentricity as 0.75 +/- 0.03, while Table 7 gives 0.745+0.030-0.027; these are consistent, but the abstract could cite the precise value to avoid apparent round-off discrepancies.
Circularity Check
TOI-2295b's quoted radius is partly self-definitional: a 3-RJ prior derived from the same TESS depth replaces an unconstrained 7.6-RJ solution; masses and periods remain independently constrained.
-
self definitional
[Sect. 4.2.1.2; Table D.2; Table 7; Abstract]
"Our study encounters that scenario, with an unconstrained radius range of 7.6+6.2−4.5 RJ centered on values that would be stellar rather than planetary. If this were a valid result, we would expect to observe a distinct secondary eclipse, which is not seen. To address this issue, we introduced a Gaussian prior on the ratio of planetary radius to the stellar radius (RP/R⋆, see Table D.2), informed by the square of the transit depth value supplied by SPOC. ... The final results interpret TOI-2295b as a warm giant planet with a radius of 1.47+0.85−0.53 RJ"
By construction, the SPOC 'transit depth' is δ=(R_P/R*)^2, so the Gaussian prior on R_P/R* is informed by the same TESS photometric signal that EXOFASTv2 is fitting. The unconstrained posterior (7.6 RJ) shows that the light curve alone does not determine the radius; the quoted 1.47 RJ value is the result of the imposed prior/cap (maximum 3 RJ), not of an independent measurement. Presenting TOI-2295b inside the abstract's 'radii ranging from 1.0 to 1.5 RJ' range therefore reports a prior-bounded estimate as if it were a measured radius. The paper's own caveat ('radius uncertain') limits but does not erase this partial circularity.
full rationale
The paper's central claims—the masses, periods, and eccentricities of TOI-2295b/c, TOI-2537b/c, and TOI-5110b, and the binary false-positive classification of TOI-4168—are supported by independent SOPHIE/HARPS/FEROS radial velocities and by TESS transit timing/ephemerides, not by the same posteriors being rediscovered. The one place where the derivation becomes self-feeding is TOI-2295b's radius: the unconstrained light-curve fit gives a stellar-like radius, a Gaussian prior on R_P/R* is then imposed with its justification drawn from the same TESS transit depth (δ=(R_P/R*)^2) plus a 3-RJ cap, and the resulting 1.47 RJ value is presented in the abstract's '1.0 to 1.5 RJ' range. This makes that particular radius claim partly prior-defined rather than data-defined. The manuscript does candidly say the radius is uncertain, so this is a partial, parameter-level circularity, not a collapse of the paper's central discoveries. Where external comparisons exist (Montalto et al. 2024; Chontos et al. 2024), the derived parameters agree, showing the central results are not artifacts of the model. The paper's self-citations (Jackson et al. 2021, Gupta et al. 2023, Frommer et al. in prep) are used as applied methods on real data and are not uniqueness theorems or answers smuggled in by citation; they do not raise the score. The TOI-1836/TOI-5076 detections use TESS-informed priors on period and mid-transit time, which is standard practice for RV confirmation and not circular. Overall score 4.
Assumptions & free parameters
free parameters (8)
- Per-instrument RV zero-points (gamma_rel) =
Table E.1: -50381.5 +/- 1.4 to 70291.5 +/- 1.9 m/s
- Per-instrument RV jitter (sigma_J) =
Table E.1: e.g., TOI-2537 FEROS 64+14-11, SOPHIE 14.2+4.1-3.8, HARPS 12.2+4.9-4.5 m/s
- Photometric baseline flux and added variance per light curve =
Table E.1 values per TESS sector and CHEOPS visit
- TOI-4081 TESS dilution factor =
0.0660 +/- 0.0020
- TTV mid-transit offsets for TOI-2537b =
Table I.1: -9.38 +/- 2.16, +18.56 +/- 2.35, -7.69 +/- 2.76 minutes
- TOI-2295b radius through RP/R* prior =
1.47+0.85-0.53 RJ
- SED extinction A_V =
Not tabulated; capped by Schlegel et al. line-of-sight limits
- Limb-darkening coefficients u1 and u2 per band =
Table E.1 values
assumptions (6)
- domain assumption TESS PDC-SAP light curves and SOPHIE DRS RVs are correctly calibrated after the stated corrections and exclusions.
- standard math Keplerian RV and transit models implemented in juliet, radvel, and EXOFASTv2 adequately describe the signals.
- domain assumption PHOENIX SED models, Gaia parallaxes, and Torres et al. empirical mass relations give accurate stellar parameters.
- ad hoc to paper The Gaussian prior on RP/R* for TOI-2295b, informed by SPOC transit depth and capped at 3 RJ, is a valid physical constraint.
- domain assumption The empirical activity-jitter relation of Hojjatpanah et al. (2020) adequately estimates TOI-2537 stellar jitter, so no Gaussian process is needed.
- domain assumption For TOI-5110, the 1.084 arcsec companion is too faint (Delta m = 6.2) to mimic the transit, and any bound companion does not significantly affect the RVs.
Cite this review
Pith. "Pith review of Characterization of seven transiting systems including four warm Jupiters from SOPHIE and TESS." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/PY4RPCIR
@misc{pith2026241208527,
author = {Pith},
title = {Pith review of: Characterization of seven transiting systems including four warm Jupiters from SOPHIE and TESS},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/PY4RPCIR}},
note = {Machine review of arXiv:2412.08527}
}
abstract
We present the study of seven systems, three of which TOI-2295, TOI-2537, and TOI-5110 are newly discovered planetary systems. Through the analysis of TESS photometry, SOPHIE radial velocities, and high-spatial resolution imaging, we found that TOI-2295b, TOI-2537b, and TOI-5110b are transiting warm Jupiters with orbital periods ranging from 30 to 94 d, masses between 0.9 and 2.9 MJ, and radii ranging from 1.0 to 1.5 RJ. Both TOI-2295 and TOI-2537 each harbor at least one additional, outer planet. Their outer planets TOI-2295c and TOI-2537c are characterized by orbital periods of 966.5 +/- 4.3 and 1920^{+230}_{-140} d, respectively, and minimum masses of 5.61^{+0.23}_{-0.24} and 7.2 +/- 0.5 MJ, respectively. We also investigated and characterized the two recently reported warm Jupiters TOI-1836b and TOI-5076b, which we independently detected in SOPHIE RVs. Additionally, we study the planetary candidates TOI-4081.01 and TOI-4168.01. For TOI-4081.01, despite our detection in radial velocities, we cannot rule out perturbation by a blended eclipsing binary and thus exercise caution regarding its planetary nature. On the other hand, we identify TOI-4168.01 as a firm false positive. Finally, we highlight interesting characteristics of these new planetary systems. The transits of TOI-2295b are highly grazing, with an impact parameter of 1.056$^{+0.063}_{-0.043}$. TOI-2537b, in turn, is a temperate Jupiter with an effective temperature of 307+/-15 K and can serve as a valuable low-irradiation control for models of hot Jupiter inflation anomalies. We also detected significant transit timing variations (TTVs) for TOI-2537b, which are likely caused by gravitational interactions with the outer planet TOI-2537c. Finally, TOI-5110b stands out due to its orbital eccentricity of 0.75+/- 0.03, one of the highest planetary eccentricities discovered thus far.
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Reference graph
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