Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.
Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.073693Z
Paper Citation Record · LEDGER
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs
As of 18 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 29 of 29 outbound references and 1 inbound Pith citation observation for arXiv:2504.13644.
A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.
Coverage vector
One-hop event checks from named stored sources.
Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00
Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.
Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-05-11T01:02:34.197356Z
A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.
Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-05-11T04:50:56.949503Z
Reference resolution
29 of 29 outbound references displayed
- verified exact0
- verified fuzzy3
- unresolved26
- parse uncertain0
- malformed identifier0
- metadata mismatch0
External citation measurements
No source-named external measurement is stored.
Outbound references
Observation 5062c667-55f6-40cb-8ba7-86416b53cec2 · outbound
This paper cites Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4
Reference 5
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.543743Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 4e2f1f94-1500-4edc-b344-bb6cea16bc87 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work
Reference 6
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.506059Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation a52003bb-b3f9-4209-8e70-fdd7986a0d36 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work
Reference 8
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.487560Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation a01e0a7d-034a-4436-bddf-11ff62d92dd5 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work
Reference 9
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.345850Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation ca919468-6059-4793-bef8-c60796fd0687 · outbound
This paper cites A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models
Reference 10
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.648262Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 27ce2e2d-2ffa-493e-8e87-423a98958895 · outbound
This paper cites Decomposing Uncertainty for Large Language Models through Input Clarification Ensembling.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Decomposing Uncertainty for Large Language Models through Input Clarification Ensembling
Reference 12
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.732075Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 04f2e6de-5bb6-4b27-b72c-a36c739d502e · outbound
This paper cites Mixtral of Experts.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Mixtral of Experts
Reference 13
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.790151Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 7e3b1b49-de61-496a-b851-588398049b96 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work
Reference 16
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.054197Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation d2fbaf20-ec65-4cb3-b12b-59153d23f2eb · outbound
This paper cites Holistic Evaluation of Language Models.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Holistic Evaluation of Language Models
Reference 17
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.813142Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation cd334a9c-1989-4a4b-9513-3f46bf0781bf · outbound
This paper cites Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models
Reference 18
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.819127Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation f2a20326-1365-43a0-8a85-8879b4eaa991 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work
Reference 19
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.965032Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation 2268e5dd-2a12-4401-b25c-d1425b8b31e9 · outbound
This paper cites Gemma: Open Models Based on Gemini Research and Technology.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Gemma: Open Models Based on Gemini Research and Technology
Reference 20
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.888675Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation ce7d35d3-53c7-477b-adcf-9fb91902cf8d · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work
Reference 21
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.933914Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation 3c460b8c-1dce-4ff5-8974-cf5b70ecc531 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work
Reference 22
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.858034Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation 508108da-abaf-42d4-8b0c-78b701a86402 · outbound
This paper cites Gemma 2: Improving Open Language Models at a Practical Size.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Gemma 2: Improving Open Language Models at a Practical Size
Reference 23
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.959342Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation bb1c8036-e2fb-453e-9dea-a2e4e2b5f1d0 · outbound
This paper cites Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback
Reference 24
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.966348Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 57228b10-1a5a-4a1d-85b4-f86fc178ad6a · outbound
This paper cites RCAgent: Cloud Root Cause Analysis by Autonomous Agents with Tool-Augmented Large Language Models.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs RCAgent: Cloud Root Cause Analysis by Autonomous Agents with Tool-Augmented Large Language Models
Reference 25
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.029453Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 07be7ce0-5285-4046-bb36-5fe4fd54c65a · outbound
This paper cites H.; Le, Q.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs H.; Le, Q
Reference 26
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.765557Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation 0858f640-b8a1-4e3c-b54c-ea9d5b74e13a · outbound
This paper cites From Word Models to World Models: Translating from Natural Language to the Probabilistic Language of Thought.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs From Word Models to World Models: Translating from Natural Language to the Probabilistic Language of Thought
Reference 27
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.058738Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation a85c5512-df0b-416d-9aac-05ef408e1983 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work
Reference 28
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.661009Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation 1df2a430-eee6-49ec-84c8-a291eef0ad00 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work
Reference 29
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:25.551943Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation 5f48780c-46ac-4308-ad7b-909d7e9e8387 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work
Reference 1963
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.072108Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation f445760d-b599-4f5e-b675-d01699ab994a · outbound
This paper cites M., and Ross, T.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs M., and Ross, T
Reference 2011
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.622642Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation 6872e8a1-64df-45c8-a834-033abd199d3c · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work
Reference 2019
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.712017Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation 3828af90-7bf0-44d9-a63e-e4d61dab168a · outbound
This paper cites Language Models are Few-Shot Learners.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Language Models are Few-Shot Learners
Reference 2020
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.489106Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation dc1a0515-fffa-4360-ac6e-f355e4c6208a · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work
Reference 2021
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.224611Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation fbae0db2-82cb-4e30-bc01-55bcf896b4dc · outbound
This paper cites S.; Reid, M.; Matsuo, Y .; and Iwa- sawa, Y.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs S.; Reid, M.; Matsuo, Y .; and Iwa- sawa, Y
Reference 2022
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.138547Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation 0e5854d4-55ed-4c32-9884-bf33ab309903 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs Unresolved cited work
Reference 2023
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:26.640798Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.
Observation 09d7a398-6b19-4dfa-ba7f-9db9d4db069b · outbound
This paper cites The Llama 3 Herd of Models.
Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs The Llama 3 Herd of Models
Reference 2024
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-16T12:08:24.632308Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Pith citing papers
Observation f0fe3703-21de-4509-a7f8-d11925275a4d · inbound
Can LLMs Take Retrieved Information with a Grain of Salt? cites this paper.
Can LLMs Take Retrieved Information with a Grain of Salt? Exploring the Potential for Large Language Models to Demonstrate Rational Probabilistic Beliefs
Reference 5
- Resolution
- verified exact
- arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T04:50:56.955018Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.