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Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts

As of 10 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 99 of 99 outbound references and 3 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2507.19477.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2507.19477 v1

Coverage vector

measured 99 of 99 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.557739Z

measured 102 of 102 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00

measured 3 of 3 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-06T11:35:49.241078Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-07-03T09:07:47.491551Z

Reference resolution

99 of 99 outbound references displayed

  • verified exact7
  • verified fuzzy49
  • unresolved42
  • parse uncertain0
  • malformed identifier0
  • metadata mismatch1

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation fd6ab861-8289-4120-b432-2b5390dbb0a5 · outbound

This paper cites Forecastqa: A question answering challenge for event forecasting with temporal text data.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Forecastqa: A question answering challenge for event forecasting with temporal text data

Reference 1

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Observation d8a5b465-6315-4cff-b42e-64d1e1b664b3 · outbound

This paper cites Forecasting future world events with neural networks.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Forecasting future world events with neural networks

Reference 2

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Observation 4ccf18ec-c3f2-42c1-b6e4-c1b47e7e2426 · outbound

This paper cites Approaching human-level forecasting with language models.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Approaching human-level forecasting with language models

Reference 3

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Observation f0e5d344-0d3c-4ddc-8425-d42bd5cd76a8 · outbound

This paper cites u ttler, Mike Lewis, Wen-tau Yih, Tim Rockt \.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts u ttler, Mike Lewis, Wen-tau Yih, Tim Rockt \

Reference 4

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source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.268441Z digest=sha256:a698ffe69d9c59fbf30cb8a42debd1e07d0b5c12a8b387dd5616eb3bf77c94e7

Observation b3511db1-d7b4-42f1-837b-c4ac22e4e52b · outbound

This paper cites Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction

Reference 5

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source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.271787Z digest=sha256:22eda18c062db1bca62849c31dd4dfbe58805c2834816ad4afb5d94d641fda7f

Observation 883c4173-9d9f-4c9c-9e30-c83868dc4cff · outbound

This paper cites Forecastbench: A dynamic benchmark of AI forecasting capabilities.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Forecastbench: A dynamic benchmark of AI forecasting capabilities

Reference 6

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source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.275380Z digest=sha256:009caa3cad3627e13264f930371f08f32620accb60fdde36221c18fd536dfb84

Observation 333173b0-dc4a-42eb-a21b-958d9c8cc9d4 · outbound

This paper cites Q3 ai benchmarking: Did bots outperform human forecasters?, 2024 a.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Q3 ai benchmarking: Did bots outperform human forecasters?, 2024 a

Reference 7

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Observation 73e1f0d9-d769-482a-be2b-c7d4c5afd425 · outbound

This paper cites Introducing chatgpt, 2022.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Introducing chatgpt, 2022

Reference 8

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Observation 52b0923d-817e-4363-ab68-453d411bbb63 · outbound

This paper cites Wisdom of the silicon crowd: LLM ensemble prediction capabilities rival human crowd accuracy.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Wisdom of the silicon crowd: LLM ensemble prediction capabilities rival human crowd accuracy

Reference 9

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Observation 635b522f-b88d-42a6-b80c-a371b52b07f6 · outbound

This paper cites Reasoning and tools for forecasting.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Reasoning and tools for forecasting

Reference 10

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Observation d67b1d3a-9bb3-4709-85d0-2a1c8dbaf90f · outbound

This paper cites Superhuman automated forecasting, 2024.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Superhuman automated forecasting, 2024

Reference 11

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Observation 4071765e-91f5-48ed-a370-5dfc35c3bded · outbound

This paper cites The memorization problem: Can we trust llms' economic forecasts? arXiv [q-fin.GN], 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts The memorization problem: Can we trust llms' economic forecasts? arXiv [q-fin.GN], 2025

Reference 12

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Observation 2598dc91-870b-42b5-9b3e-351d85e836f9 · outbound

This paper cites Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting, 2024.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting, 2024

Reference 13

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Observation ea63d7ae-fdf2-44c3-a6f4-daf17c074fd1 · outbound

This paper cites Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters

Reference 14

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Observation 6e9eaa5b-03c2-4b7a-b49f-a7d49ac51393 · outbound

This paper cites Why humans are still much better than ai at forecasting the future, 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Why humans are still much better than ai at forecasting the future, 2025

Reference 15

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Observation 751caad5-9173-44a4-ad28-c2f7e58afd27 · outbound

This paper cites Introducing openai o1, 2024.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Introducing openai o1, 2024

Reference 16

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Observation 5796d82c-09c4-4312-aae6-351e062d350d · outbound

This paper cites Introducing openai o3 and o4-mini, 2025 a.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Introducing openai o3 and o4-mini, 2025 a

Reference 17

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Observation 76c51251-4580-46a7-a0d7-4f972dc42909 · outbound

This paper cites Q4 ai benchmarking: Bots are closing the gap, 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Q4 ai benchmarking: Bots are closing the gap, 2025

Reference 18

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Observation b890b0b9-bdee-45fe-8b8f-a21e56b3cacc · outbound

This paper cites LLMs Can Teach Themselves to Better Predict the Future.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts LLMs Can Teach Themselves to Better Predict the Future

Reference 19

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Observation da8d91ef-761b-4187-ad81-e56b80ba04c6 · outbound

This paper cites Outcome-based reinforcement learning to predict the future.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Outcome-based reinforcement learning to predict the future

Reference 20

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Observation 71ebae5d-43e0-4631-a0ca-7fb79b084ec2 · outbound

This paper cites Try deep research and our new experimental model in gemini, your ai assistant, 2024.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Try deep research and our new experimental model in gemini, your ai assistant, 2024

Reference 21

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Observation c1a9d2e3-4edf-4015-b419-17747194a516 · outbound

This paper cites Introducing deep research, 2025 b.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Introducing deep research, 2025 b

Reference 22

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Observation 4db80c65-3b01-4c6e-a111-8fb6adbeaf54 · outbound

This paper cites Introducing claude 4, 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Introducing claude 4, 2025

Reference 23

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Observation cfe82c01-c5fb-44b5-b758-d481eda0c5f2 · outbound

This paper cites Will spacex's 3rd starship go higher than its prior launch before april?, 2023.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Will spacex's 3rd starship go higher than its prior launch before april?, 2023

Reference 24

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Observation 6e0aa8ba-ad84-4c16-a7c3-3c2e3f3b5980 · outbound

This paper cites Can Language Models Use Forecasting Strategies?.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Can Language Models Use Forecasting Strategies?

Reference 25

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Observation c5fd6d77-d377-4482-a571-401d299d1dd1 · outbound

This paper cites https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/34747/the-state-of-metaculus/, 2025 a.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/34747/the-state-of-metaculus/, 2025 a

Reference 26

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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation 5da61db0-d79f-4a16-9840-0a8c5500d947 · outbound

This paper cites What can we learn from scoring different election forecasts?, 2022.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts What can we learn from scoring different election forecasts?, 2022

Reference 27

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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation 274b7f27-382e-4d53-8975-aa03fefb5de3 · outbound

This paper cites Online prediction betting markets look ahead after us presidential election triumph: `we're just getting started', 2024.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Online prediction betting markets look ahead after us presidential election triumph: `we're just getting started', 2024

Reference 28

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.992877Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation 1ed7356a-6a97-47ff-a7f0-3625d503f529 · outbound

This paper cites Autocast++: Enhancing world event prediction with zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Autocast++: Enhancing world event prediction with zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval

Reference 29

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.983236Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.344829Z digest=sha256:c0cb39e192fe898f6d55756da0db0486102066e8d2ad6d874bff8ffd109925fe

Observation f335528e-34cc-4be2-9618-15248c234e3d · outbound

This paper cites MIRAI: Evaluating LLM Agents for Event Forecasting.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts MIRAI: Evaluating LLM Agents for Event Forecasting

Reference 30

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source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.347548Z digest=sha256:4247cb15820d7998282c16f4b599a6e3da8aa08562027a8c02e79a9079bd25b3

Observation e5aa3ccb-9b43-4526-8497-f76c8d5bc9b2 · outbound

This paper cites Consistency checks for language model forecasters.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Consistency checks for language model forecasters

Reference 31

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.973602Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.350833Z digest=sha256:c3946ae96af09404f0689e1625f92105d23df75b14a16125c9be2bf877573854

Observation 66e4b0fa-b47f-43ef-bd65-40dacd25bf08 · outbound

This paper cites Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Reference 32

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source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.353683Z digest=sha256:ba25831e98f9726c463b64b0fdaff500cf69d8d316d2f8a0d14dbae8970ad454

Observation a7be4d39-beda-43fd-811e-3deddc64d4a5 · outbound

This paper cites Deep Research Bench: Evaluating AI Web Research Agents.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Deep Research Bench: Evaluating AI Web Research Agents

Reference 33

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source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.357022Z digest=sha256:d5b0936a8ac88bd7126c956e32714662a19385f877de4de8afbdd97f4bee7446

Observation 794e8e41-7ced-4c07-8fb8-8b64d439af83 · outbound

This paper cites Openforecast: A large-scale open-ended event forecasting dataset.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Openforecast: A large-scale open-ended event forecasting dataset

Reference 34

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.963859Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation fc690611-819c-4b07-b39b-d6a067caecdf · outbound

This paper cites scope sensitive.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts scope sensitive

Reference 35

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.954474Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.363561Z digest=sha256:e3973a3f8a1fa10193cb0fca6a03714a6c24f28a4995f83569ef8d4693217768

Observation 7d88b0f8-0d98-4161-80f5-6657eb6a0ac5 · outbound

This paper cites Calibrating large language models with sample consistency.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Calibrating large language models with sample consistency

Reference 36

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.944852Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.366573Z digest=sha256:f8df40f6256ef50f876bf2b09dce9866a6ea2e90e5256ffd9d61fca310f06429

Observation 061e5b8e-4e3b-4575-933c-90e548068af0 · outbound

This paper cites Ai forecasting bots incoming, 2024.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Ai forecasting bots incoming, 2024

Reference 37

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.935514Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.369678Z digest=sha256:67aa2d22f54e3ae6bb4d8a877659c7967820e4196962270f29f616c6d83873f7

Observation 30e7063c-c32a-44af-baf8-29cd122414c8 · outbound

This paper cites Comparing two forecasters in an ideal world, 2023 a.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Comparing two forecasters in an ideal world, 2023 a

Reference 38

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.914071Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.372970Z digest=sha256:0059e8823e632a28bd7695e1c1b32e27a71bd06bb8e0bc0ae282a0d3af022189

Observation 5b2ad8d4-b60b-460c-92be-40cf7df44d65 · outbound

This paper cites Chatbot arena: An open platform for evaluating llms by human preference.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Chatbot arena: An open platform for evaluating llms by human preference

Reference 39

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.893025Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.376532Z digest=sha256:f2cbbcbf25d9d9abfe2189c13a3e04ab624383f7d761f4ba9feb05d0d78e7642

Observation ee8fd224-5ca3-4331-893e-53e297fc5dcd · outbound

This paper cites Q1 ai benchmark results: Pro forecasters crush bots, 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Q1 ai benchmark results: Pro forecasters crush bots, 2025

Reference 40

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.867674Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.379668Z digest=sha256:eb55bf2fcc1906e1f9a61a8e3beedea1f2ee0971e508744b4776b7cd15d34850

Observation 08a4b393-fde9-4821-8cb2-b938c8c45a67 · outbound

This paper cites https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/36949/ai-forecasting-benchmark-q2-tournament-starts-april-21/, 2025 b.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/36949/ai-forecasting-benchmark-q2-tournament-starts-april-21/, 2025 b

Reference 41

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.851429Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.382583Z digest=sha256:42813844e6a030ee4769370ccdb2f394788dc89e049c913706f2b87f0ebf0b8b

Observation 725b42f4-bbe4-4be7-ac9e-ac55351838bc · outbound

This paper cites Tulu 3: Pushing Frontiers in Open Language Model Post-Training.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Tulu 3: Pushing Frontiers in Open Language Model Post-Training

Reference 42

Resolution
unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.386442Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.386442Z digest=sha256:8a3644bbaf5fa90d0aa6b7aaa8e79a0f38ae5a9cd3c20f9d28d9f3a97007e22b

Observation adf4edb5-5832-44b4-95c2-eb9ee1303529 · outbound

This paper cites DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning

Reference 43

Resolution
unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.389550Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.389550Z digest=sha256:40c3c048143509961a7c8b1aa97efabf1f347353151180e68a878a9d2151c00d

Observation c19e750d-a729-434d-ae81-e436a2a69ea6 · outbound

This paper cites Futuresearch github, 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Futuresearch github, 2025

Reference 44

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.833423Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.392588Z digest=sha256:42df06ca924d8d5272d88be1c7607f9556d260ddaf42c0afa9b6e702ee30b744

Observation e68d87c4-4e24-43ab-afc8-477b47b39e83 · outbound

This paper cites Evaluating LLM-Based Regression Test Generation.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Evaluating LLM-Based Regression Test Generation

Reference 45

Resolution
unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.395462Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.395462Z digest=sha256:5c6c1b8eb38f95f4a8ad01d7fd0be0c1c49ee001c7ddbeea3b72dd659c7400f6

Observation c69286e3-0199-4275-aa74-9bc2405ace54 · outbound

This paper cites What uncertainties do we need in bayesian deep learning for computer vision? NIPS, 2017.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts What uncertainties do we need in bayesian deep learning for computer vision? NIPS, 2017

Reference 46

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.809579Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.398483Z digest=sha256:bfe19761d2e1c3fbff8dcb56c174087fe3f1387b6546ea4d91a0a2608d96ca64

Observation cd97f78e-8254-466c-bff3-ca8455297bf9 · outbound

This paper cites More is probably more — forecasting accuracy and number of forecasters on metaculus, 2023 b.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts More is probably more — forecasting accuracy and number of forecasters on metaculus, 2023 b

Reference 47

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.789224Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.401323Z digest=sha256:08c56625b3798c6c80c6cfa63cefac19309dabdb60559cf6ea41e706e7180f55

Observation ad6885f1-249d-4223-b8d8-ee4b259d3fc8 · outbound

This paper cites Predicting Empirical AI Research Outcomes with Language Models.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Predicting Empirical AI Research Outcomes with Language Models

Reference 48

Resolution
unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.403988Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.403988Z digest=sha256:0f552d941d4a710e684336385bc7ba0c9de859777f20573eae72d362238b4266

Observation e48bbad2-bacf-4600-b414-a8fdddf48cf7 · outbound

This paper cites Retrieval-guided counterfactual generation for QA.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Retrieval-guided counterfactual generation for QA

Reference 49

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.746632Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.406960Z digest=sha256:d0152ce3d0964966255170605c3bfbc50b1934e7fa744a6539247928c0d16871

Observation 7abae2df-1602-4357-9f1d-2533298d7b1d · outbound

This paper cites Disentqa: Disentangling parametric and contextual knowledge with counterfactual question answering.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Disentqa: Disentangling parametric and contextual knowledge with counterfactual question answering

Reference 50

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.724452Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.409815Z digest=sha256:28be2a8e5b61745ab2de5f12090549d80a8b0f666c86254d53399dfa063988ee

Observation 6a2e9333-fda5-4900-b2bb-17e5d8ced852 · outbound

This paper cites Reinforcement learning with unsupervised auxiliary tasks.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Reinforcement learning with unsupervised auxiliary tasks

Reference 51

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.714762Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.412971Z digest=sha256:0aa7fca3d1db36977badca27a51f7d653b9f5696f4613366ccd0081ca9757c80

Observation 0321577d-34d7-44f6-9663-96579fe30bc0 · outbound

This paper cites The biggen bench: A principled benchmark for fine-grained evaluation of language models with language models.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts The biggen bench: A principled benchmark for fine-grained evaluation of language models with language models

Reference 52

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.705007Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.415866Z digest=sha256:9a784bae93c16690aec0d93cc441c4441bf501339a0529f4723a16d1959b0962

Observation 0d60f226-bfef-4990-a587-90e27ccb24e8 · outbound

This paper cites Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback

Reference 53

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.694978Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.418740Z digest=sha256:beeaf744b42e7662edcb2c0f4fd6bd93e2f010ec5382e8b84579d68ecc93629d

Observation e5a2b26e-c6c3-45c3-9668-d643a6787e6c · outbound

This paper cites Least-to-most prompting enables complex reasoning in large language models.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Least-to-most prompting enables complex reasoning in large language models

Reference 54

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.684911Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.421758Z digest=sha256:6507a653f176b7741ecb21c5aa67b9b79d93bc0febd7bfde510eaaf43eeadaa3

Observation 0f6f8c28-1ede-48b5-b228-846f2acf52f3 · outbound

This paper cites Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models

Reference 55

Resolution
unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.424522Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.424522Z digest=sha256:722087ad074bdec722229a06ee81f2857e9d97154f0ae113454864a0e128de16

Observation 2792696f-4c44-4219-92ad-97ce67eff388 · outbound

This paper cites Scaling-laws for large time-series models.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Scaling-laws for large time-series models

Reference 56

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.674181Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.427413Z digest=sha256:1aa86d44c342cbecf08e1b1dee74f6e1ac0d7ffa45e4bd5d6051c8f26cbb2b38

Observation 2d97bc87-0bb9-4a59-8dba-42c4713a9f58 · outbound

This paper cites Reinforcement Pre-Training.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Reinforcement Pre-Training

Reference 57

Resolution
unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.430188Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.430188Z digest=sha256:ec4dee40ee029f6de546514b68e63964603a7b20b667a52e9d12d6419dbcaf9c

Observation 60690f69-b2ab-4311-ac39-22b1a2001c2f · outbound

This paper cites Acled data portal, 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Acled data portal, 2025

Reference 58

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.663328Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.433608Z digest=sha256:40930e0b5a75815df395ad1dbd3680a1b9458d7c46d7a7217a655371f270ea9b

Observation 10a477e5-9c72-4bde-b7d3-eb65ad9a03b2 · outbound

This paper cites Dbnomics – the world's economic database, 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Dbnomics – the world's economic database, 2025

Reference 59

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.653498Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.436445Z digest=sha256:90db65da8d2d29e5a974c06f7bd1083401ee8e51a34895b1c4d22e94a93b69f1

Observation 1db370bd-f80a-4846-986a-65e02532a2af · outbound

This paper cites Fred (federal reserve economic data), 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Fred (federal reserve economic data), 2025

Reference 60

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.642787Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.439176Z digest=sha256:ff1ae8aed672c80bc39b2201eb8f21aa290e3dd516b062ed122c4665d28bfb5c

Observation c52cb964-fee0-4e14-9439-22f1436bd577 · outbound

This paper cites Global health observatory (gho) data repository, 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Global health observatory (gho) data repository, 2025

Reference 61

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.632648Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.442102Z digest=sha256:cf150deecea92045b86884e602dd54bea54ad39d5ea1d7a1cf00c00f706ca6f0

Observation 827dd5f1-46d3-4e57-876a-b95ed12dfb7b · outbound

This paper cites Cdc public health data portal, 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Cdc public health data portal, 2025

Reference 62

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.622470Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.444800Z digest=sha256:47fbad228d8842c78cbb7cc8f2957d8bb94a75ae1d9617b872764ccceb0795cb

Observation 829dc3c6-a0d6-451e-848c-fb5669d18d59 · outbound

This paper cites Nasa earthdata – earth science data systems, 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Nasa earthdata – earth science data systems, 2025

Reference 63

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.613014Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.447585Z digest=sha256:b46a48ee313fa002151adf61bc439caa8f6ab73f1f468a09adc930b0f6974500

Observation 2e0778b4-872a-44a2-84db-89a8c7f649a6 · outbound

This paper cites Noaa ncei climate data online, 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Noaa ncei climate data online, 2025

Reference 64

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.603227Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.450505Z digest=sha256:5b74c05e515c254fcba402823b84dd4e67248567dd6e2271a4bef00ca4f7c855

Observation 3f147e9c-bb01-481c-b145-e15056163970 · outbound

This paper cites OpenEP: Open-Ended Future Event Prediction.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts OpenEP: Open-Ended Future Event Prediction

Reference 65

Resolution
unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.453162Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.453162Z digest=sha256:0750c8477790ac25aedd5800358e525367af718fd3f0d6dd600296929589e7ba

Observation 7c18b7d2-3575-4d89-b3ba-425050a419d7 · outbound

This paper cites Paq: 65 million probably-asked questions and what you can do with them.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Paq: 65 million probably-asked questions and what you can do with them

Reference 66

Resolution
verified exact
doi, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.634740Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.456457Z digest=sha256:2296f7f7ba1ba3b1987d58fa156d529ce8fbf9e74d67f404af1638622d05d4ef

Observation c9e6984d-f61d-42da-8ac8-96982c455c7f · outbound

This paper cites Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners

Reference 67

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.592490Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.459534Z digest=sha256:9fe3b527ff25713153f77ceb0132ab5aaa9e524a19f4a015bcd1b0e29c57369b

Observation bef51a45-ec29-4249-a34b-5bf32efd9ef9 · outbound

This paper cites Special report: The simulations driving the world's response to covid-19.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Special report: The simulations driving the world's response to covid-19

Reference 68

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.582692Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.462572Z digest=sha256:2d5b08b148e9c566db2fd3c9a3c249c2827a2aaa131b70b612bb4414d7ffa097

Observation 2fe46854-75af-404c-a70d-46b437d55621 · outbound

This paper cites Shall we vote on values, but bet on beliefs? Journal of Political Philosophy, 21 0 (2), 2013.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Shall we vote on values, but bet on beliefs? Journal of Political Philosophy, 21 0 (2), 2013

Reference 69

Resolution
verified exact
doi, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.625180Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.465367Z digest=sha256:098777311d3763dc03d7e2828d49efcb7c794523fae617663762a1b870c41083

Observation 624901d6-2a1a-4ab6-b889-74091508cba1 · outbound

This paper cites Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a signature of enforcement bias in us cities.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a signature of enforcement bias in us cities

Reference 70

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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation 8ce64523-244e-4ac1-b56c-87aab8769bf2 · outbound

This paper cites Another record low biden approval rating in june?, 2024.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Another record low biden approval rating in june?, 2024

Reference 71

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verified fuzzy
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation a4700762-dd91-4da1-b006-046fe7909bd2 · outbound

This paper cites Exploring Large Language Models for Climate Forecasting.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Exploring Large Language Models for Climate Forecasting

Reference 72

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no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.474994Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

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Observation 30faa68b-5ecb-46d8-b7c8-09e1690f15d1 · outbound

This paper cites Ai 2027, 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Ai 2027, 2025

Reference 73

Resolution
verified fuzzy
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation 8c668925-5367-43cc-8f7e-c6d4958624d4 · outbound

This paper cites How accurate are the superforecasters?, 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts How accurate are the superforecasters?, 2025

Reference 74

Resolution
verified fuzzy
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.481569Z digest=sha256:ed147759f56f5e9e68bc9624f100337b7cc13a4fd0d6e54901a6fc9316d10d69

Observation 8d1746e8-8b7e-4108-9cfc-3e387cd2ffa1 · outbound

This paper cites Predictive performance on metaculus vs.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Predictive performance on metaculus vs

Reference 75

Resolution
verified fuzzy
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.484425Z digest=sha256:ba2b06770dc74cfaa4135a15ed0f0092f1d61b12c2e57ccf46aaeec4a9034eba

Observation 4584680f-1f2d-4355-b394-ed365f42d80e · outbound

This paper cites Very interesting failed attempt at manipulation on polymarket today, 2024.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Very interesting failed attempt at manipulation on polymarket today, 2024

Reference 76

Resolution
verified fuzzy
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation 4768c776-af4c-44f1-872b-8033f61f9671 · outbound

This paper cites 2024 electoral consequences, 2024.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts 2024 electoral consequences, 2024

Reference 77

Resolution
verified fuzzy
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation 92a92351-94ad-4b6d-a604-79af61e4997f · outbound

This paper cites Fostering effective hybrid human-llm reasoning and decision making.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Fostering effective hybrid human-llm reasoning and decision making

Reference 78

Resolution
metadata mismatch
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.081845Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation 9d442661-c673-4b20-938b-dc68baa0e7e6 · outbound

This paper cites Ai-augmented predictions: Llm assistants improve human forecasting accuracy.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Ai-augmented predictions: Llm assistants improve human forecasting accuracy

Reference 79

Resolution
verified exact
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation db960926-6f03-4333-b1f3-d1a30ca3e556 · outbound

This paper cites Time travel is cheating: Going live with deepfund for real-time fund investment benchmarking.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Time travel is cheating: Going live with deepfund for real-time fund investment benchmarking

Reference 80

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Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.499484Z digest=sha256:da6347c2413e088ba2cd4b5455d38eb1fa125a597c8e550a3e2dab67c849fb90

Observation d67a4d57-ae0c-4b8a-a1b0-3b0d80f35798 · outbound

This paper cites Bayesian causal discovery for policy decision making.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Bayesian causal discovery for policy decision making

Reference 81

Resolution
verified fuzzy
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation e820a459-70e4-408b-b55d-09167e82a560 · outbound

This paper cites From prediction to foresight: The role of ai in designing responsible futures.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts From prediction to foresight: The role of ai in designing responsible futures

Reference 82

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verified exact
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation c3204b67-067e-48ca-9e72-af99213ca4a9 · outbound

This paper cites Is it possible to predict the future? - the medical futurist, 2024.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Is it possible to predict the future? - the medical futurist, 2024

Reference 83

Resolution
verified fuzzy
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.508161Z digest=sha256:c163f50bc40d1163dd51adde31798b104d1d1cd66b4578437ac9d2447da9761a

Observation 05eb4c2b-bfc9-4496-9f27-0f7dee178236 · outbound

This paper cites Large language models surpass human experts in predicting neuroscience results.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Large language models surpass human experts in predicting neuroscience results

Reference 84

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verified fuzzy
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.511434Z digest=sha256:8ee4add1d1dc91b5d9929a07b9040318cdaff738de2b59e5aaa503baa54c2f44

Observation bfe85c47-e4bb-45cc-9a02-a2497a6c1a52 · outbound

This paper cites Towards an AI co-scientist.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Towards an AI co-scientist

Reference 85

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unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.515069Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.515069Z digest=sha256:2b30db27e14b7a1bf982453711ac723040f115ca4628648263df762f774f8cf2

Observation 8da8abb3-3263-4f20-995a-266e4a33f679 · outbound

This paper cites The AI Scientist-v2: Workshop-Level Automated Scientific Discovery via Agentic Tree Search.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts The AI Scientist-v2: Workshop-Level Automated Scientific Discovery via Agentic Tree Search

Reference 86

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unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.518151Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.518151Z digest=sha256:c0a397b84f3626ab93ee8c1c3b498e6439fc260304d726294a2fcdb7119b0581

Observation 49d2a624-c4fe-4a6f-9b92-e73c5df55f1a · outbound

This paper cites PaperBench: Evaluating AI's Ability to Replicate AI Research.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts PaperBench: Evaluating AI's Ability to Replicate AI Research

Reference 87

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unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.521193Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.521193Z digest=sha256:9a2d3154925e3cf9e095d3382c8060612eb133000e7de45f57a466e989f952d1

Observation d5ed0595-6e73-44b6-9b74-bf3ccd50b1db · outbound

This paper cites Announcing the agent2agent protocol (a2a), 2025.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Announcing the agent2agent protocol (a2a), 2025

Reference 88

Resolution
verified fuzzy
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation fc0791f7-6ea3-4a4d-b0f7-0fc25bf3fbd9 · outbound

This paper cites Language Models, Agent Models, and World Models: The LAW for Machine Reasoning and Planning.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Language Models, Agent Models, and World Models: The LAW for Machine Reasoning and Planning

Reference 89

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unresolved
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Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.527546Z digest=sha256:9991c00ebe86f1abfe31b082555036ac720f96a5e99aeffee020e88af09b7641

Observation d8f47523-7f0c-4911-9947-ccf21d75f645 · outbound

This paper cites Calibrating large language models using their generations only.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Calibrating large language models using their generations only

Reference 90

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verified fuzzy
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation dc533c0c-3663-4378-8e80-8849cb764c64 · outbound

This paper cites A normative model for bayesian combination of subjective probability estimates.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts A normative model for bayesian combination of subjective probability estimates

Reference 91

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verified exact
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation 8342aba4-a5eb-4f3f-a0f1-a70ff7af17ba · outbound

This paper cites Trust calibration for joint human/ai decision-making in dynamic and uncertain contexts.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Trust calibration for joint human/ai decision-making in dynamic and uncertain contexts

Reference 92

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verified exact
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation 80c6faff-6238-4223-b803-e66b84bbb31f · outbound

This paper cites When accurate prediction models yield harmful self-fulfilling prophecies.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts When accurate prediction models yield harmful self-fulfilling prophecies

Reference 93

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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.539472Z digest=sha256:ae4b1d33be26ac007560f997d510fb8a896e58f29b41fb581e1f01c6c57600ea

Observation c61eef86-4a5f-443b-9051-2d334b13fca4 · outbound

This paper cites Mirror, mirror on the wall: Algorithmic assessments, transparency, and self-fulfilling prophecies.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Mirror, mirror on the wall: Algorithmic assessments, transparency, and self-fulfilling prophecies

Reference 94

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verified exact
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.542424Z digest=sha256:ac6e206d8f44ec8b88f70436d7ab75b27f23ee9d1135ccf3fb399026cc6dc3f6

Observation 5c95435c-3104-4734-b917-fa8f0dae52ea · outbound

This paper cites Poisonbench: Assessing large language model vulnerability to data poisoning.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Poisonbench: Assessing large language model vulnerability to data poisoning

Reference 95

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verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.439890Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.545235Z digest=sha256:ced9ed17e80196dc52045af2387ef67eb2e611bcc6f19186aa73917a086b29dc

Observation cbbfbc1d-15b5-44f7-baab-c9fa57c62d61 · outbound

This paper cites Trust and reliance on ai—an experimental study on the extent and costs of overreliance on ai.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Trust and reliance on ai—an experimental study on the extent and costs of overreliance on ai

Reference 96

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.427772Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.548142Z digest=sha256:1feccba3a122fc25620ab6ff8bc26ef521fe5c64cf14185ac99227315f33514c

Observation bf4f4502-7e16-4097-8afe-de0a8d41824f · outbound

This paper cites Bias and fairness in large language models: A survey.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Bias and fairness in large language models: A survey

Reference 97

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verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.417046Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.551139Z digest=sha256:bd716fe2cc39bdc00a6ec7385444fb902d7d6bf88876d3725d375364db49c43d

Observation 381c4a66-9f39-4d07-afb6-cdaba520dc1d · outbound

This paper cites Fairness and bias in artificial intelligence: A brief survey of sources, impacts, and mitigation strategies.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Fairness and bias in artificial intelligence: A brief survey of sources, impacts, and mitigation strategies

Reference 98

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verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:32.405954Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.554498Z digest=sha256:e550a159802031087857c09d11f447cee1d562c2f8e61ac6df3c3b31edb2a795

Observation 6fa794cc-e69f-4dc2-af50-cc4db79e3e22 · outbound

This paper cites write newline.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts write newline

Reference 99

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unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.557739Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T14:22:31.557739Z digest=sha256:c352eadf809c08024c27ec4c856c3e67ff08940c77a5332a656cea0f661c05c2

Pith citing papers

Observation 6399cd49-f88a-438c-a443-87bcb414c821 · inbound

Scattered Hypothesis Generation for Open-Ended Event Forecasting cites this paper.

Scattered Hypothesis Generation for Open-Ended Event Forecasting Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts

Reference 2

Resolution
verified exact
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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

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Observation 1090a807-0430-4752-a534-1bb2ef951b05 · inbound

Building Social World Models with Large Language Models cites this paper.

Building Social World Models with Large Language Models Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts

Reference 123

Resolution
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arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-03T09:07:47.492879Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-06-27T10:34:22.071622Z digest=sha256:5014284d0e70d5964df6371443aaf501588a2f17be611e1ebe4106cfbcae6923

Observation 732b0bbb-361a-44a7-aadd-6515e52376e9 · inbound

Revealed Rationality: Label-Free Evaluation and Regularization from Representation Theorems cites this paper.

Revealed Rationality: Label-Free Evaluation and Regularization from Representation Theorems Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts

Reference 28

Resolution
unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T11:35:49.241078Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T11:35:49.241078Z digest=sha256:74dc03ec168ea6614f21e93add5185f4164c44b85b88d5206aa682b23ad772ea