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Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

As of 8 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 44 of 44 outbound references and 9 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2508.03474.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2508.03474 v1

Coverage vector

measured 44 of 44 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:45.228969Z

measured 53 of 53 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00

measured 9 of 9 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-01T00:26:30.922720Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-05-15T07:39:50.274829Z

Reference resolution

44 of 44 outbound references displayed

  • verified exact4
  • verified fuzzy33
  • unresolved7
  • parse uncertain0
  • malformed identifier0
  • metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation 0cc2d445-219c-43b6-aa6a-46039e648499 · outbound

This paper cites https://huggingface.co/Linq-AI-Research/Linq-Embed-Mistral.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets https://huggingface.co/Linq-AI-Research/Linq-Embed-Mistral

Reference 1

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:53.596650Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:40.195729Z digest=sha256:67566bb0c0a8edde94e81842ef50af5bf878b8e5c52ab5394e3158f6523994ed

Observation fa1461a8-7d39-4caf-8294-e9ce5143a3c6 · outbound

This paper cites https://huggingface.co/spaces/mteb/leaderboard.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets https://huggingface.co/spaces/mteb/leaderboard

Reference 2

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:53.455132Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:40.298901Z digest=sha256:c6de4b32d527fc7c57bc5a49a495a828e444f4551fc59e5f2b7524b41e568a49

Observation 5c65fa80-892a-414d-8c6a-a64db4ce0ef2 · outbound

This paper cites URL: https://www.alchemy.com/chain-connect/endpoints/public-node-polygon-pos.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets URL: https://www.alchemy.com/chain-connect/endpoints/public-node-polygon-pos

Reference 3

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:53.290076Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:40.402389Z digest=sha256:8d230405f1a7591ea1aa069afdc3d48aada9539a766dadb74f00ac75957adfe4

Observation 6fd343a2-41a2-4069-8983-c247f42f6b4d · outbound

This paper cites https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B, 2025.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B, 2025

Reference 4

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:53.151156Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:40.550378Z digest=sha256:34b4f0fa5d5e7d9b01a9e36395e22c881da87497de6f78f97c66319700f63bd4

Observation 9a30185d-2073-46fb-b7e3-10b00763cfe4 · outbound

This paper cites Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners , volume 30.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners , volume 30

Reference 5

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verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:52.984479Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:40.663529Z digest=sha256:69c9ed15b05cb100e193782189bbbe969c329b338a760b43e0c3b8005333904e

Observation 17fd9416-7dd8-4593-9dea-8d9910a71d87 · outbound

This paper cites Flash boys 2.0: Frontrunning in decentralized exchanges, miner extractable value, and consensus instability.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Flash boys 2.0: Frontrunning in decentralized exchanges, miner extractable value, and consensus instability

Reference 6

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:52.803476Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:40.803740Z digest=sha256:c89ba25c5a89597dc2cb697f261fac6c05dc7b767732102a5f3fdc3e177f4a47

Observation 19df4469-b78f-4ec4-af14-b02d6b78151c · outbound

This paper cites SoK: Attacks on DAOs.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets SoK: Attacks on DAOs

Reference 7

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no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:40.913021Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:40.913021Z digest=sha256:fc5fd50fe0e307448fa81954a8c9a80192b2710309c6b542e0a512a0e920d96b

Observation 556e5470-28e5-4e16-b245-a38b87d7a17c · outbound

This paper cites Rolling in the shadows: Analyzing the extraction of mev across layer-2 rollups.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Rolling in the shadows: Analyzing the extraction of mev across layer-2 rollups

Reference 8

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:52.602280Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:41.049904Z digest=sha256:e16cb342c74056d312db9b8cf3fa1ef7167ff55329509409171c5d0dba961ac3

Observation 6d272e08-14c6-4fa9-a8df-43d76a3bc12f · outbound

This paper cites Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets

Reference 9

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Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:41.151686Z digest=sha256:c951124d56a528b42e9ad2922d6ada1c5b2030e4766e55f119afb5de3146a389

Observation 65bb0b62-9588-4be7-89a6-3bbaaabff36f · outbound

This paper cites Ai in the gray: Exploring moderation policies in dialogic large language models vs.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Ai in the gray: Exploring moderation policies in dialogic large language models vs

Reference 10

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no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:41.222129Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:41.222129Z digest=sha256:bbfab39944abe60b3e850e7212b717f8ff54ebe9d5bc5f6d058f3e25e6e3fb5a

Observation 63d09b3f-8cd2-4e01-af13-8d85ecf4a811 · outbound

This paper cites Conditional Tokens Documentation.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Conditional Tokens Documentation

Reference 11

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:51.936526Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:41.357558Z digest=sha256:5f0eb032896dfbc9afa061dff473fde09ccc31e6a8e55b57ba1aaa462f2c098e

Observation c3fd8469-5f94-4856-a86d-458ce448e524 · outbound

This paper cites DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning

Reference 12

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no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:41.459515Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:41.459515Z digest=sha256:78b8d83750189eab323a06866b4daab483823e4dbbb883188b4b249021829fba

Observation c42ea593-3dd1-46af-b255-55e61830b785 · outbound

This paper cites The policy analysis market (and futuremap) archive, 2003.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets The policy analysis market (and futuremap) archive, 2003

Reference 13

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:51.743959Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:41.563431Z digest=sha256:a70a689b5fae0538c4200da7c36512567e31b6da14cb94c5737416089ecd5b2d

Observation 0a5ec754-725f-4f82-aacb-6ae5bd879fff · outbound

This paper cites Ethereum's proposer-builder separation: Promises and realities.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Ethereum's proposer-builder separation: Promises and realities

Reference 14

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:51.406576Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:41.684742Z digest=sha256:ed53ee71cf7fe8071522e754c922fc8af0d82d0e6651f6c01be2daba1ad401ba

Observation 12d79ba5-d67a-49fc-81c5-804cbdda9fa6 · outbound

This paper cites Non-atomic arbitrage in decentralized finance.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Non-atomic arbitrage in decentralized finance

Reference 15

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:51.270910Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:41.833462Z digest=sha256:47b26a62883585347c466ee6bbb09a3804d2391af4da0bca5e4bbb1807cb92b0

Observation 8552cbaa-3ced-4aa0-868d-bef8f1a0bc60 · outbound

This paper cites Longllmlingua: Accelerating and enhancing llms in long context scenarios via prompt compression.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Longllmlingua: Accelerating and enhancing llms in long context scenarios via prompt compression

Reference 16

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:51.113939Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:41.939137Z digest=sha256:fb8bc59b1791e9c328d97a07dc58abdc0e312be76f1ecdb3d572f73defdf82e5

Observation b1f8aa59-636b-4ba2-b620-8f2068650fb7 · outbound

This paper cites Matic network: Scalable and instant blockchain transactions, 2019.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Matic network: Scalable and instant blockchain transactions, 2019

Reference 17

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:51.024955Z

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No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:42.043883Z digest=sha256:770da625bb5f31518ede2ba202940d4358cdeea94b81094b6c4ae1e5a1d5aae4

Observation bdfeb420-9850-486b-85f9-2856966438ab · outbound

This paper cites Are Longer Prompts Always Better? Prompt Selection in Large Language Models for Recommendation Systems.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Are Longer Prompts Always Better? Prompt Selection in Large Language Models for Recommendation Systems

Reference 18

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no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:42.136860Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:42.136860Z digest=sha256:e7f0f1664568a21bb75caead2153b53f33459417d660f89cf3293248af4874f9

Observation 2e7c6d2c-0417-448f-b604-72cf9e5f9773 · outbound

This paper cites Automated market making and arbitrage profits in the presence of fees.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Automated market making and arbitrage profits in the presence of fees

Reference 19

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:50.929507Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:42.246141Z digest=sha256:5abafc1896fdfd4aded89b849519a808848f605dcc8f5d04171804890ff20050

Observation 97b87939-2a6e-43b5-96d1-87ad4cb74f73 · outbound

This paper cites Who Wins Ethereum Block Building Auctions and Why?.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Who Wins Ethereum Block Building Auctions and Why?

Reference 20

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no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:42.383323Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:42.383323Z digest=sha256:6489f0b217a1b21a77737e15f07e08cf9376bc2d629cfd54a3df5941f5a86ef8

Observation 4e76d044-20ae-4843-8999-add4df4571fb · outbound

This paper cites Cross-Chain Arbitrage: The Next Frontier of MEV in Decentralized Finance.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Cross-Chain Arbitrage: The Next Frontier of MEV in Decentralized Finance

Reference 21

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local_arxiv, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:46.640721Z

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No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:42.498692Z digest=sha256:bd8ac3af1ab2090df04288669c4057d38b8146184cdc52a162f232bdb48c7718

Observation bc93ddc7-4c41-41ba-bcb5-f04b3688e326 · outbound

This paper cites Fide world blitz chess champion 2024.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Fide world blitz chess champion 2024

Reference 22

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:50.795036Z

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No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:42.599146Z digest=sha256:a68e26c9cf3a088667cb624c1141faeb23154f0e1786ab7005c77e1fe16294df

Observation 215cce6a-13ac-4994-be21-9cf1dc13f459 · outbound

This paper cites Presidential election winner– 2024 market.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Presidential election winner– 2024 market

Reference 23

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:50.468215Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:42.736516Z digest=sha256:35473991312c6b2f6c0d9e0fefd18dc3dd1fc95358af68e13657018d9d435f4b

Observation 9a1936fa-e938-4ee6-9293-6f76e0019f57 · outbound

This paper cites py-clob-client: Python client for polymarket clob.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets py-clob-client: Python client for polymarket clob

Reference 24

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:50.248467Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:42.817907Z digest=sha256:c2b8542a562461958af0e1b8a0ca87880e4c1a1b138298c8af368c8a6ccb5cec

Observation 2a824cda-5db4-4d8b-a3ed-4ee5c8116c22 · outbound

This paper cites Tweet on market dynamics and liquidity.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Tweet on market dynamics and liquidity

Reference 25

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:46.338057Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:42.970413Z digest=sha256:11c0a2cda79e3192b3ab75dff0ad7fb3e4155644786a6e496e1122add805b481

Observation 5fba2fd0-ca6d-436d-a9d9-a7a5f47241b0 · outbound

This paper cites Tweet on unusual trading activity.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Tweet on unusual trading activity

Reference 26

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:46.048948Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:43.122140Z digest=sha256:39a7a9fa4654869d7d3a2d1c155259bec7e1c07520ec8fd2ae1c30e14ab1a660

Observation b4fc3f25-1c56-4eaf-85df-d0b44d6330fb · outbound

This paper cites Polymarket: A decentralized information markets platform.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Polymarket: A decentralized information markets platform

Reference 27

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:50.046266Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:43.254678Z digest=sha256:25c5c5e9a4c88f3ed997e83dcc1d3a1656c2c51670933450b54e902e46311eeb

Observation 2d5d53fd-d471-43c7-87e5-f5e0d5459334 · outbound

This paper cites Clob introduction.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Clob introduction

Reference 28

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:49.828786Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:43.392107Z digest=sha256:9ef90086f6b6482d66fc86640a5f40300364829eddcaaad75e837d166c6f86ed

Observation dccf0c61-e906-4f83-b09e-68e882f58e1f · outbound

This paper cites How are markets created?, 2025.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets How are markets created?, 2025

Reference 29

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:49.586944Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:43.540047Z digest=sha256:1b5865aa3804397f4dc95902325327187f9520b4e296e592d4ad5472ded5be86

Observation eeed4c4e-0164-491b-ab3e-2bc06f67c303 · outbound

This paper cites Uma voter analysis in polymarket disputes.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Uma voter analysis in polymarket disputes

Reference 30

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:49.352075Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:43.636231Z digest=sha256:5e6be81fcd9c61e5d4de1bead0a975675a996222d4c69c801f2a68e3812f3735

Observation 78fb6a3c-2481-40a1-8e03-57c12a08e009 · outbound

This paper cites Quantifying blockchain extractable value: How dark is the forest? In 2022 IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy (SP) , pages 198--214.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Quantifying blockchain extractable value: How dark is the forest? In 2022 IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy (SP) , pages 198--214

Reference 31

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:49.174912Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:43.727505Z digest=sha256:f68aa9a2aae522c8d6452327156ad3a2b9c315ecb75094dcf5e2a992e06afa15

Observation 27c22da8-ac5a-4de5-8c14-a1659e9ec7fb · outbound

This paper cites Expert political judgment: How good is it? how can we know?-new edition.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Expert political judgment: How good is it? how can we know?-new edition

Reference 32

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:48.987869Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:43.840505Z digest=sha256:386188671faf4faf25ef3efd4f736ed60c3ad960932e06b159bbd9c96a3d8a25

Observation b01953fb-67dd-4fe8-9812-2044617b3e44 · outbound

This paper cites Uma dvm oracle whitepaper.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Uma dvm oracle whitepaper

Reference 33

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:48.761597Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:43.942724Z digest=sha256:021e110d030f8e079de25525ca93d9fe4bdb34b531ee9ec1127f940829bac5bc

Observation 22f8affd-db23-4640-9f42-a698cb5de350 · outbound

This paper cites Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models

Reference 34

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unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:44.046983Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:44.046983Z digest=sha256:9a8d46210c1a0241bb75a88323a8a1737841865822af40be0965d04459d9f3e8

Observation bbe080bc-4884-41b3-8d2c-c464c627f7df · outbound

This paper cites Chi, Quoc V.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Chi, Quoc V

Reference 35

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:48.510370Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:44.143005Z digest=sha256:7743155b7e6e72b5a093c3097b2712199a8040d5fca5e98becc9070e354ff44e

Observation f556d293-2e0b-4b63-8948-05219ce89e96 · outbound

This paper cites A flash (bot) in the pan: measuring maximal extractable value in private pools.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets A flash (bot) in the pan: measuring maximal extractable value in private pools

Reference 36

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:48.281923Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:44.242317Z digest=sha256:a26084cb1839c6f1056af36f16fd43fe253fc0fa100065e3ff17511d5c7c27af

Observation 2394bd8e-ca2d-4fb0-8fcc-8efb45c6188c · outbound

This paper cites Accessing polymarket data in python, August 2024.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Accessing polymarket data in python, August 2024

Reference 37

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:48.082897Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:44.345436Z digest=sha256:97d3a263bbf7886594827ee31cf4534a9b4971fc7b3dd828ac65570974c1b668

Observation 03618b1c-b26f-4706-ba5f-ab5ffd62391a · outbound

This paper cites Prediction markets.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Prediction markets

Reference 38

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:47.863574Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:44.425842Z digest=sha256:dd98086403bd5c1b7e2c4f2751ca56d2a4b8bc23a62b1b268b54701641dcb10c

Observation 256dbef8-f99f-42a8-be70-12ea107c98ea · outbound

This paper cites Mohammad Islam.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Mohammad Islam

Reference 39

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:47.682622Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:44.569350Z digest=sha256:784b18c5d73398fab42f50b355ecb4991ba5b36652dba7670150f95ae3ded10f

Observation 31ea4ba8-b239-40a3-a0d0-2139cad57791 · outbound

This paper cites Sok: Mev countermeasures.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Sok: Mev countermeasures

Reference 40

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raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:47.443749Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:44.674004Z digest=sha256:43523e185c3831bf92f5b9a9d2898b86657b2e9cda93eb3664b7b215335f8d49

Observation dd43aa17-003f-4848-8dbe-3de4bb1c5dfc · outbound

This paper cites Griffiths, Yuan Cao, and Karthik Narasimhan.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Griffiths, Yuan Cao, and Karthik Narasimhan

Reference 41

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:47.254615Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:44.804217Z digest=sha256:da8539cc615624830eb4f51375dff3750db656572da3fd8e36c0609ba3b36fbf

Observation 2ee17e71-8d43-4c1d-841e-153e006cdc8a · outbound

This paper cites No fish is too big for flash boys! frontrunning on dag-based blockchains.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets No fish is too big for flash boys! frontrunning on dag-based blockchains

Reference 42

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verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:46.997411Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:44.966981Z digest=sha256:03e0c10ebfc77e6ba07b6a450f08207fcb2bf5ae5c57cdff098f5150ffc21a8c

Observation ee753d7c-1dfa-496a-b11f-f16a19205a8e · outbound

This paper cites Apt-pipe: A prompt-tuning tool for social data annotation using chatgpt.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Apt-pipe: A prompt-tuning tool for social data annotation using chatgpt

Reference 43

Resolution
unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:45.076796Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:45.076796Z digest=sha256:e05ecf8f9c1230445c113f09e63e0309cc2d7bdd38d98f0058eb01a30d8d86fc

Observation 89a703cf-dd18-447f-bbc9-6dbf5ffdbe0e · outbound

This paper cites Cross-Partisan Interactions on Twitter.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Cross-Partisan Interactions on Twitter

Reference 44

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verified exact
local_arxiv, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:45.481652Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-08-06T04:27:45.228969Z digest=sha256:c4efe0f5c83cbeab15ea74792c7f61e8d5a9a0294ec41f8583ae079f73d2bd8c

Pith citing papers

Observation 6fa50d64-e66c-49d4-9be3-60da7d8e1839 · inbound

Unlocking the Forecasting Economy: A Suite of Datasets for the Full Lifecycle of Prediction Market: [Experiments \& Analysis] cites this paper.

Unlocking the Forecasting Economy: A Suite of Datasets for the Full Lifecycle of Prediction Market: [Experiments \& Analysis] Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 12

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verified exact
arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T13:36:03.469924Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=pdf_text observed=2026-05-10T01:28:36.715565Z digest=sha256:63ff0fe075ad70ab5cb130b1fcd2f59e76345350edad873c7a678592e0bc3571

Observation 250fb0ad-5a3e-4b1b-8fa3-20e3340c3faa · inbound

ForesightFlow: An Information Leakage Score Framework for Prediction Markets cites this paper.

ForesightFlow: An Information Leakage Score Framework for Prediction Markets Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 22

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verified exact
arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T16:41:12.115956Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-05-09T15:26:50.934591Z digest=sha256:d3d5f388cf5fafc81c458d4cfc98d96a5276f33917cba0f79c2add5270b0aa53

Observation a8f1deab-869f-420d-a4fb-2e62b0893069 · inbound

ForesightFlow: An Information Leakage Score Framework for Prediction Markets cites this paper.

ForesightFlow: An Information Leakage Score Framework for Prediction Markets Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 22

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verified exact
arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-15T06:25:07.579256Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-05-15T06:23:56.341159Z digest=sha256:d99567f9f70dd5a3ff0950aaed1925679f6ea49defefdf7e3778da3ecf7ad8fa

Observation b7c36c67-a602-4653-96c0-73d0419c8556 · inbound

Arbitrage Analysis in Polymarket NBA Markets cites this paper.

Arbitrage Analysis in Polymarket NBA Markets Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 1

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arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T14:16:05.519562Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-05-09T23:05:17.718945Z digest=sha256:8a8778db9cb8d1d983c833ea4f28df80fe85ec13a5385f9f52d0455f42dcfece

Observation 3a113f6f-c4bb-4eb0-b2de-b6b43b50b502 · inbound

Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases cites this paper.

Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 22

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arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T23:06:20.927671Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-05-08T01:36:21.298231Z digest=sha256:9cc337db88beab6034a6186b7a1eed40a2cb91f69715a7bb5adab70e0f1acd83

Observation c619c525-ab9d-49d9-ac72-ebac697b9a29 · inbound

Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases cites this paper.

Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 22

Resolution
verified exact
arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-15T07:39:50.277576Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-05-15T07:37:51.083744Z digest=sha256:3b1499d533f56143e39b04fcb77d983e7307112b8bb953f85c34c0e926fbca6b

Observation 4a5fc5f7-5471-494e-9f40-0d68180c7cb1 · inbound

Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill: Two Methodological Lenses on Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets cites this paper.

Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill: Two Methodological Lenses on Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 22

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arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T23:11:14.007999Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-05-08T01:29:53.626981Z digest=sha256:a8a2c3ad25097b232631647dccd1a6fee0e5fd6c75dedfcf139e98642379af45

Observation a893f106-1cee-451e-9746-ddae287b0d0b · inbound

Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill: Two Methodological Lenses on Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets cites this paper.

Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill: Two Methodological Lenses on Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 22

Resolution
verified exact
arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-15T07:35:14.518524Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-08T06:32:00.761636+00:00.

source=arxiv_source observed=2026-05-15T07:33:24.015939Z digest=sha256:eb0af0c33314b77773cf8659a9dd855dc7826b25fd05d81f50db8a0f1d8d6a7d

Observation 075dd913-a13a-4df6-84aa-fe176ff9c5cb · inbound

OpenMarket: A Synchronized Polymarket-Binance Dataset for High-Frequency Prediction-Market Research cites this paper.

OpenMarket: A Synchronized Polymarket-Binance Dataset for High-Frequency Prediction-Market Research Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 23

Resolution
unresolved
no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T00:26:30.922720Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

source=pdf_text observed=2026-08-01T00:26:30.922720Z digest=sha256:9fedbb19d1f5234eaee295b7c1b01374cbdfc6a73203a0e7c3b020eeb52fc683