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arxiv: 2606.06234 · v1 · pith:76ZFVXRDnew · submitted 2026-06-04 · 🌌 astro-ph.SR · astro-ph.EP· astro-ph.IM

gr8stars II : judgement day for spectroscopic parameter model systematics

Alix Violet Freckelton , Annelies Mortier , Megan Bedell , Michael Cretignier , Jared R. Kolecki , Andreas J. Korn , S\'ergio G. Sousa , Maria Tsantaki
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John M. Brewer Lars A. Buchhave Guy R. Davies J. I. Gonz\'alez Hern\'andez Sam Morrell Martin B. Nielsen Vera Maria Passegger Andreas Quirrenbach Arpita Roy Nuno C. Santos A. Su\'arez Mascare\~no Christopher Allan Watson Lily L. Zhao
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Pith reviewed 2026-06-27 23:29 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.SR astro-ph.EPastro-ph.IM
keywords stellar parametersspectroscopic methodsexoplanet propertiesFGK dwarfsisochrone fittingsystematicsSOPHIE spectra
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The pith

Scatter across five spectroscopic methods on 585 FGK stars induces at most 3% fractional uncertainty in exoplanet radii and 5% in masses.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper applies five different spectroscopic pipelines to the same high-quality spectra of 585 bright FGK dwarfs to measure effective temperature, surface gravity, and metallicity. It then feeds each set of results into isochrone fitting to obtain stellar masses, radii, and ages, and compares the resulting radii against independent values from spectral energy distribution fitting. The observed method-to-method scatter is propagated forward to show the impact on derived exoplanet parameters. A sympathetic reader would care because the exercise quantifies a previously under-reported noise floor that affects many exoplanet studies. The work concludes that the induced errors on planetary radius and mass remain smaller than values commonly quoted in the literature.

Core claim

Five spectroscopic methods yield typical scatters of 76 K in effective temperature, 0.14 dex in surface gravity, and 0.07 dex in metallicity; when propagated through isochrone fitting, these produce fractional uncertainties of ≲3% in planetary radius and ≲5% in planetary mass, with a lower limit of ≈4% on planetary equilibrium temperature uncertainty.

What carries the argument

The scatter among five spectroscopic parameter sets, propagated through isochrone-derived stellar masses and radii to exoplanet properties and compared against SED radii.

If this is right

  • Planetary radius uncertainties arising from spectroscopic method choice stay at or below 3 percent.
  • Planetary mass uncertainties arising from spectroscopic method choice stay at or below 5 percent.
  • Planetary equilibrium temperature carries a minimum fractional uncertainty of approximately 4 percent from this source alone.
  • These limits lie below the uncertainties typically reported for exoplanet parameters in the literature.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Other error sources such as orbital fitting or photometric calibration may now dominate the error budget in many exoplanet radius and mass determinations.
  • A combined analysis that averages or selects among multiple spectroscopic methods could reduce the effective scatter below the single-method values reported here.
  • The 4 percent floor on equilibrium temperature uncertainty would propagate directly into retrievals of planetary atmospheric properties and into assessments of potential habitability.

Load-bearing premise

The radii obtained by SED fitting in the companion paper form an independent benchmark free of shared systematics with the spectroscopic and isochrone results.

What would settle it

A measurement showing that the SED radii and isochronal radii share common systematics larger than the reported method-to-method scatter would remove the basis for claiming the induced planetary uncertainties are truly below literature values.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.06234 by Alix Violet Freckelton, Andreas J. Korn, Andreas Quirrenbach, Annelies Mortier, Arpita Roy, A. Su\'arez Mascare\~no, Christopher Allan Watson, Guy R. Davies, Jared R. Kolecki, J. I. Gonz\'alez Hern\'andez, John M. Brewer, Lars A. Buchhave, Lily L. Zhao, Maria Tsantaki, Martin B. Nielsen, Megan Bedell, Michael Cretignier, Nuno C. Santos, Sam Morrell, S\'ergio G. Sousa, Vera Maria Passegger.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Histograms of the differences between results from each method and PASTEL for 𝑇eff, [Fe/H], and log 𝑔. The standard deviation (STD) and mean of these histograms is marked on each plot, with a grey dashed line representing 0 in each plot. Parameter RMSD Median Difference Median Uncertainty P A+M F Y MP P A+M F Y MP P A+M F Y MP Δ 𝑇eff (K) 94 94 90 89 101 -8 34 51 -14 -27 105 30 26 70 93 Δ [Fe/H] 0.08 0.10 0… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: The mean value from all spectral analysis codes in this work plotted against the PASTEL value for 𝑇eff (left), log 𝑔 (centre), and [Fe/H] (right). The pink line in all panels represents the one-to-one relationship. Lower panels show the residuals between the data sets. Y axes errors represent the standard deviation in the results from this work [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Differences in 𝑇eff from this work and those from PASTEL, coloured by the [Fe/H] from each method on the top row, and the PASTEL [Fe/H] on the second row. The top row additionally includes linear regression lines fitted to the data, as well as the Pearson Correlaton Coefficient (PCC) for the five sets of results. MNRAS 000, 1–19 (2025) [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Histograms of the whole-sample masses obtained using isochrones, with 𝑇eff and [Fe/H] from PAWS, ARES+MOOG, FASMA, YARARA, Metal Pipe, and the combined results. Grey dashed lines indicate the median of each distribution of results [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p009_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Distribution of stellar ages across the sample from this work. Stellar ages were determined using isochrones, with results from inputting spectroscopic 𝑇eff and [Fe/H] from PAWS, ARES+MOOG, FASMA, YARARA, Metal Pipe, and the combined results. Grey dashed lines display the median age from each distribution of results. MNRAS 000, 1–19 (2025) [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p009_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: The difference between spectroscopic and fundamental (interfero￾metric) 𝑇eff for each method applied in this work, for each of the 6 stars in common with Soubiran et al. (2024). sults here are therefore within the broad expectations of comparing spectroscopic to interferometric 𝑇eff. An additional observation from [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: First row : difference between the 𝑇eff derived by each method and the 𝑇eff from SED fitting, plotted against SED 𝑇eff. The Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) and regression lines are additionally included. Second row : Histograms of the differences between spectroscopic and SED 𝑇eff, with standard deviation (STD) and median values displayed [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Difference between the log 𝑔 derived by each spectroscopic method and that from webSME, plotted against the webSME log 𝑔. This covers the 30 stars with the most discrepant log 𝑔 from the different spectroscopic methods. isochrones, and hence log 𝑔, are significantly model dependent and may not agree with empirical measurements (e.g. Boyajian et al. 2015). We additionally investigate whether the use of the … view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Box-and-whisker plot of the log 𝑔 values determined by each code for the sample of 30 discrepant log 𝑔 targets, in addition to the log 𝑔 for these produced by only the equivalent widths section of PAWS. Open circles represent log 𝑔 values that extend beyond the minimum or maximum extremes of the data. 5.4 Microturbulent Velocity 𝑣mic An important consideration in our analysis is the influence of spectro￾sc… view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Reduced chisquared of each forward-modelled spectrum when compared to the observed one, using the results from each method. This covers all 30 discrepant log 𝑔 targets. From the NASA Exoplanet Archive (Christiansen et al. 2025), the median fractional uncertainty on exoplanetary radius in the literature is 7.36%, higher than uncertainty predicted to arise from scatter in stellar radius alone. It is importa… view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Histograms of the differences between the isochronal log 𝑔 for each method and the PASTEL log 𝑔, with standard deviation (STD) and median shown for each distribution [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_11.png] view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Left panel : Difference between the log 𝑔 from the full PAWS pipeline and from the combined isochronal posteriors, plotted against PAWS 𝑇eff. Right panel : Difference between the log 𝑔 from the EW section of PAWS and the combined isochronal posteriors, plotted against the PAWS 𝑇eff. Both panels additionally show the Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) of the data, in addition to the fitted linear regres… view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Histograms of the determined microturblent velocity (𝑣mic) from PAWS, FASMA, and ARES+MOOG. Each histogram also notes the standard deviation (STD) and median (Med.) values from each code [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p016_13.png] view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: The relationship between 𝑣mic and 𝑇eff for ARES+MOOG (left), PAWS (centre), and FASMA (right). The slope (m) and intercept (c) of the fitted linear regression lines are shown in the legend of each subplot. ity, we show that the precision errors often quoted for spectroscopic parameters are far outweighed by the scatter that comes from the use of different methods. Given that we consistently see disagreeme… view at source ↗
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: Differences in radii from each spectroscopic method + isochrones, and the radii from SED fitting, plotted against SED radius for each method. The lower right hand panel shows the results from combining all isochrones results. Four SED outliers have been removed from all of these plots. The Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) and linear regression lines fitted to the data are shown in each panel. look pa… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Many areas of astrophysics, including exoplanetary studies, rely on precise and accurate stellar parameters. This demands that uncertainties on these parameters truly reflect all biases and systematics. Within this second work of the \texttt{gr8stars} collaboration, we take a set of 585 bright FGK dwarfs with high resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio spectra from the SOPHIE spectrograph. We determine stellar effective temperature, surface gravity, and metallicity using five different spectroscopic methods for each star, with an additional method used for comparisons. We find a typical scatter of 76 K in \teff, 0.14 dex in \logg, and 0.07 dex in \feh. These deviations are significantly larger than the average precision error on these parameters. We furthermore use isochrone fitting to determine mass, radius, and age for all 585 stars, using input from all results. We use the radii determined by SED fitting in the first \texttt{gr8stars} paper as a comparison to our isochronal radii from this work, in addition to comparing the isochronal \logg to spectroscopic \logg. The scatter in mass and radius from the use of different spectroscopic methods is investigated and propagated to exoplanetary parameters. The induced fractional uncertainties in planetary radius ($\lesssim$ 3 \%) and mass ($\lesssim$ 5\%) are found to be below those typically found in the literature. We estimate a lower limit on planetary equilibrium temperature fractional uncertainty of $\approx$ 4\%, a noise floor that is currently not sufficiently represented in the literature.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

1 major / 2 minor

Summary. The paper analyzes spectroscopic parameters (Teff, log g, [Fe/H]) for 585 bright FGK dwarfs from SOPHIE spectra using five methods, reporting typical scatters of 76 K, 0.14 dex, and 0.07 dex. It performs isochrone fitting for masses, radii, and ages using these inputs, compares the resulting radii to SED-fitting radii from the companion gr8stars I paper (and isochronal vs. spectroscopic log g), and propagates the method-to-method scatter to estimate induced fractional uncertainties on exoplanet radius (≲3%), mass (≲5%), and a lower limit of ≈4% on equilibrium temperature.

Significance. If the benchmark comparison is independent, the work provides a concrete quantification of how spectroscopic method choice propagates to stellar and planetary parameters in a large, homogeneous sample. The finding that these systematics are smaller than typical literature values could help establish realistic uncertainty floors for exoplanet studies; the multi-method approach on 585 stars is a clear strength.

major comments (1)
  1. [the isochrone fitting and gr8stars I comparison section] The section describing the comparison of isochronal radii to SED-fitting radii from gr8stars I (and the propagation of scatters to planetary parameters): the central claim that the observed scatters (76 K, 0.14 dex, 0.07 dex) induce the quoted ≲3%/≲5%/≈4% fractional uncertainties on planetary radius/mass/Teq rests on treating the SED radii as an independent benchmark. The manuscript provides no quantitative test (e.g., overlap in photometry, model grids, or calibration steps) that the two pipelines are free of shared systematics; without this, the benchmark cannot independently confirm that the spectroscopic scatter is the dominant, well-quantified systematic.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] The abstract states that 'an additional method [is] used for comparisons' but does not identify the method or its role; this should be clarified in the methods section for reproducibility.
  2. [results on planetary uncertainties] The propagation to planetary parameters is described only at the level of the abstract; a dedicated subsection or table showing the exact error-propagation steps (including any assumptions on stellar mass/radius correlations) would improve clarity.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive comments and the opportunity to clarify aspects of our analysis. We address the major comment below.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [the isochrone fitting and gr8stars I comparison section] The section describing the comparison of isochronal radii to SED-fitting radii from gr8stars I (and the propagation of scatters to planetary parameters): the central claim that the observed scatters (76 K, 0.14 dex, 0.07 dex) induce the quoted ≲3%/≲5%/≈4% fractional uncertainties on planetary radius/mass/Teq rests on treating the SED radii as an independent benchmark. The manuscript provides no quantitative test (e.g., overlap in photometry, model grids, or calibration steps) that the two pipelines are free of shared systematics; without this, the benchmark cannot independently confirm that the spectroscopic scatter is the dominant, well-quantified systematic.

    Authors: The fractional uncertainties on planetary radius (≲3%), mass (≲5%), and equilibrium temperature (≈4%) are derived solely from the observed method-to-method scatter among the five spectroscopic pipelines applied to the SOPHIE spectra (76 K in Teff, 0.14 dex in log g, 0.07 dex in [Fe/H]). These scatters are measured internally to the spectroscopic analysis and propagated through isochrone fitting; the gr8stars I SED radii are used only as an external consistency check for the resulting isochrone radii and for comparing isochronal versus spectroscopic log g. They play no role in quantifying or propagating the scatters themselves. We will revise the manuscript to state this distinction explicitly and to add a short discussion of why the spectroscopic and SED approaches are expected to have limited shared systematics (distinct input data—high-resolution spectra versus broadband photometry—and different modeling frameworks). This addresses the concern without requiring new quantitative overlap tests. revision: partial

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; derivation from measured method scatter and propagation is self-contained.

full rationale

The paper measures inter-method scatter (76 K, 0.14 dex, 0.07 dex) across five spectroscopic pipelines on the same 585 spectra, performs isochrone fitting on those inputs, and directly propagates the resulting mass/radius scatter to planetary parameters to obtain the ≲3 % / ≲5 % / ≈4 % figures. The gr8stars I SED radii appear only as an external comparison benchmark (abstract: "We use the radii determined by SED fitting in the first gr8stars paper as a comparison to our isochronal radii from this work"), not as an input that defines or forces the reported scatters or propagated uncertainties. No equation reduces a claimed prediction to a fitted quantity by construction, and the central result does not rest on a self-citation chain. The derivation is therefore independent of the benchmark comparison.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The analysis rests on standard stellar-evolution models and the assumption that SED radii are independent of spectroscopic results; no new free parameters or entities are introduced.

axioms (2)
  • domain assumption Isochrone models provide reliable mass, radius, and age estimates when supplied with spectroscopic Teff, log g, and [Fe/H].
    Invoked when converting the five sets of spectroscopic parameters into isochronal masses, radii, and ages for all 585 stars.
  • domain assumption SED-fitting radii from the companion paper are independent of the spectroscopic methods tested here.
    Used as the external benchmark for isochronal radii and for the log g comparison.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5938 in / 1454 out tokens · 13694 ms · 2026-06-27T23:29:35.993530+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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Reference graph

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