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arxiv: 2606.10679 · v1 · pith:6HRVQFGWnew · submitted 2026-06-09 · 🌌 astro-ph.CO

Balancing bias, baryons, and scale cuts in LSST 3x2pt analysis

Ottavia Truttero , Maria Tsedrik , Joe Zuntz , Alkistis Pourtsidou , Nikolina \v{S}ar\v{c}evi\'c , Christos Georgiou , the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-27 12:20 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.CO
keywords LSST3x2ptgalaxy biasbaryonic feedbackneutrino massHEFTscale cutsBACCO emulator
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The pith

A minimal bias model with fixed higher-order terms remains unbiased for LambdaCDM parameters in LSST 3x2pt up to k_max=0.7 h/Mpc.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper tests how galaxy bias modeling and baryonic feedback affect cosmological constraints from LSST year-1 and year-10 3x2pt data. It compares a linear bias model, a full hybrid effective field theory approach, and a minimal bias variant with fixed higher-order terms, all implemented via the BACCO emulator that also incorporates baryonification. Linear bias stays unbiased only to k_max=0.1 h/Mpc, while the minimal variant works to much smaller scales without shifting Omega_m or sigma_8. Higher-order bias terms can imitate the effect of baryonic suppression on the power spectra, yet baryons alone cannot span the full range of bias behaviors. Neutrino mass detection appears feasible above k=0.3 h/Mpc, but the recovered M_nu value shifts when the minimal bias model is used instead of the full one.

Core claim

In a 3x2pt analysis for LSST using the BACCO emulator to model HEFT galaxy bias and baryonic feedback via baryonification, a minimal bias variant with fixed higher-order terms is unbiased in LambdaCDM even at k_max=0.7 h/Mpc. Higher-order bias can mimic baryonic suppression but baryons cannot reproduce the full range of higher-order bias behaviour. A detection of total neutrino mass M_nu is possible for both Y1 and Y10 for k>=0.3 h/Mpc at least when photo-z uncertainties and related nuisance parameters are precisely known, yet the inferred M_nu can be significantly biased by adopting the minimal bias model.

What carries the argument

Hybrid-effective field theory (HEFT) for nonlinear galaxy bias combined with the baryonification mechanism for feedback, both handled inside the BACCO emulator.

If this is right

  • Linear bias delivers percent-level unbiased constraints on Omega_m and sigma_8 only up to k_max=0.1 h/Mpc.
  • The minimal bias variant with fixed higher-order terms stays unbiased in LambdaCDM at k_max=0.7 h/Mpc.
  • Higher-order bias can mimic baryonic suppression on galaxy-matter and galaxy-galaxy power spectra, while baryons cannot span the full range of higher-order bias effects.
  • Total neutrino mass M_nu can be detected for Y1 and Y10 data when k>=0.3 h/Mpc under the assumption of known photo-z uncertainties.
  • The measured value of M_nu shifts substantially when the minimal bias model is adopted instead of the full HEFT model.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Analyses that fix higher-order bias terms may need extra validation against mocks that vary both bias and baryon parameters simultaneously.
  • The sensitivity of M_nu to bias model choice suggests that future surveys should test multiple bias expansions before claiming a neutrino mass measurement.
  • If photo-z nuisance parameters turn out to be less well constrained than assumed, the claimed detectability threshold at k=0.3 h/Mpc would move to larger scales.
  • The open-source MGL pipeline introduced here could be applied to other Stage-IV surveys to check whether the same scale-cut and bias-model balance holds.

Load-bearing premise

Photo-z uncertainties and related nuisance parameters are precisely known.

What would settle it

A real LSST data analysis that recovers a statistically different total neutrino mass M_nu when the minimal bias model is replaced by the full HEFT model would show the robustness claim does not hold.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.10679 by Alkistis Pourtsidou, Christos Georgiou, Joe Zuntz, Maria Tsedrik, Nikolina \v{S}ar\v{c}evi\'c, Ottavia Truttero, The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: — Redshift distributions of the tomographic bins for the lens (left) and source (right) samples as specified by the SRD for LSST Y1 (top) and Y10 (bottom). where, in our case, the two tracers will be galaxy clus￾tering (G) and shear (γ). Under the Limber approximation (Limber 1953; LoVerde & Afshordi 2008) and assuming a flat Universe cosmology, the 2D angular power spectra can be obtained as a projection … view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: — Figure of merit (top) and figure of bias (bottom) for Ωm and σ8 at different scale cuts. Left panel: without baryonic feedback; Right panel: baryonic feedback is explicitly included in shear and modelled as in Equation 8 in galaxy clustering, with the only free parameter being log10MC. All cases consider HEFT as fiducial model for the data, while we used the linear bias (pink line), minimal bias (green l… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: — Galaxy-galaxy auto-correlation angular power spectra showing how bias parameters mimic the effect of baryonic suppression. In pink we show the suppression factor S, in particular, the two lines and the shaded region in between correspond to the power spectra range with baryonic suppression with log10MC between 9 and 15. The gradient-colored lines include higher-order bias contributions, modelled with HEF… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: — Mean value and 1σ error of Ωm, σ8, log10MC and the first two bias parameters b1 and b2 for four different modelling assumptions: full HEFT bias with and without baryonic suppression included in GGL, and same two scenarios but using the minimal bias approach instead of full HEFT. All cases consider the same mock data with HEFT as bias model and with baryonic feedback. The grey vertical lines correspond to… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: — The 68% and 95% 2D confidence regions and poste￾riors for some of the parameters in the analysis at different scale cuts for LSST Y1. We assumed HEFT in the mock data and the minimal bias model in the analysis, both with baryonic feedback and massive neutrinos (free log10MC and Mν). The solid contours consider the fiducial values as in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p009_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: — The 68% and 95% 2D confidence regions and posteriors for Ωm, σ8 and Mν in the Y10 analysis at kmax = 0.7 h/Mpc for four different scenarios using full HEFT (pink and red) and minimal bias (blue and dark blue) in the modelling. The solid contours consider the fiducial values as in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: — Galaxy-galaxy auto-correlation angular power spectrum at z = 0 in bin 5 of Y10 showing how bias parameters mimic the effect of massive neutrinos. In pink we show the effect of the bias parameters with no massive neutrinos, where the values of bs 2 and b∇2 are double respect to the fiducial in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p011_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: — The absolute value of the difference between the Cℓ obtained with CCL and MGL weighted by the error σCℓ for the shear-shear (light blue), galaxy-galaxy (blue) and galaxy-shear (yellow) angular power power spectra. The dashed horizontal line shows the 10% of 1σ error, the target numerical accuracy from Chisari et al. (2019). The light grey shaded area corresponds to the galaxy-galaxy and galaxy-shear scal… view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: — The ratios between galaxy clustering Cℓ computed in the HEFT model with respect to the naive modelling via b 2 1PNLS with weak (blue), medium (green) and strong (pink) baryonic suppression. The light grey shaded area corresponds to the galaxy-galaxy scale cuts kmax = 0.7 h/Mpc, while the blue shaded area corresponds to 1% accuracy. APPENDIX Comparison with CCL We show here the comparison at the level of… view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: — The 68% and 95% 2D confidence regions and posteriors for all free parameters in the analysis at kmax = 0.7 h/Mpc. Both runs consider the same mock data set with Zennaro24 and HEFT bias model, but different analysis model: HEFT (blue) and minimal bias (green). higher-order galaxy bias parameters, which can mimic baryonic suppression with 1% accuracy. Extra figures and tables We collect here the full post… view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: — The 68% and 95% 2D confidence regions and posteriors for cosmological and IA parameters in the analysis at kmax = 0.1 h/Mpc (left) and kmax = 0.3 h/Mpc (right). All runs consider the same mock data set with HEFT bias model, which are then analysed with three different models: HEFT (blue), minimal bias model (green) and linear bias (pink and dashed red contours). For the case represented by the dashed re… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Stage IV surveys such as LSST will probe deeply into the nonlinear regime, where systematic effects from galaxy bias and baryonic feedback become dominant and poorly constrained nuisance parameters can lead to degeneracies. In this work we present a $3\times2$pt analysis for LSST Y1 and Y10 data using the BACCO emulator for modelling both the hybrid-effective field theory (HEFT) for nonlinear galaxy bias and the baryonic feedback using the baryonification mechanism. We aim to find a balance between model complexity and scale cuts, with particular attention to parameter degeneracies and baryonic feedback effects on the galaxy--matter and galaxy--galaxy power spectra. First, we find that a linear bias model delivers percent-level, unbiased constraints on $\Omega_{\rm m}$ and $\sigma_8$ only up to $k_{\rm max}=0.1\,h/$Mpc, but pushing to smaller scales requires a perturbative approach. Second, we compare HEFT with a minimal bias variant with fixed higher-order terms, and find that the latter is unbiased in $\Lambda$CDM even at $k_{\rm max}=0.7\,h/$Mpc. We show that higher-order bias can mimic baryonic suppression, but baryons cannot reproduce the full range of higher-order bias behaviour. Third, we find that a detection of the total neutrino mass $M_\nu$ is possible for both Y1 and Y10 for $k\geq0.3\,h/$Mpc, at least when photo-$z$ uncertainties and related nuisance parameters are precisely known. However, the specific measured value is not robust across equally plausible mock scenarios: the inferred $M_\nu$ can be significantly biased by adopting the minimal bias model. The entire analysis is conducted with a new independent, open source pipeline (MGL) that we present for the first time in this work.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript presents a 3×2pt analysis for LSST Y1 and Y10 using the BACCO emulator to jointly model HEFT nonlinear galaxy bias and baryonic feedback via baryonification. It compares a linear bias model (unbiased only to k_max=0.1 h/Mpc), full HEFT, and a minimal-bias variant with fixed higher-order terms (claimed unbiased on Ω_m and σ_8 in ΛCDM to k_max=0.7 h/Mpc). It reports that higher-order bias can mimic baryonic suppression but not vice versa, and that M_ν detection is possible for k≥0.3 h/Mpc provided photo-z uncertainties are precisely known, although the inferred M_ν value is not robust and can be biased by the minimal-bias choice. The work introduces a new open-source pipeline (MGL).

Significance. If the central results hold, the paper offers concrete guidance on scale cuts and model complexity for Stage-IV 3×2pt analyses, particularly the interplay between bias, baryons, and neutrinos. The release of the independent MGL pipeline is a clear strength for reproducibility and community use.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract (third result paragraph): The claim that a detection of M_ν is possible for both Y1 and Y10 at k≥0.3 h/Mpc is conditioned on photo-z uncertainties and related nuisance parameters being precisely known. This assumption is load-bearing; realistic marginalization over photo-z shifts (which enter the lensing and clustering kernels) can reintroduce degeneracies with M_ν, bias, and baryonic suppression. The minimal-bias model already produces significant M_ν biases across mocks, so the detection significance is not demonstrated to be robust once photo-z parameters are varied with LSST-like priors.
  2. [Abstract] Abstract (second result paragraph): The statement that the minimal-bias variant with fixed higher-order terms is unbiased in ΛCDM even at k_max=0.7 h/Mpc requires explicit quantification of any residual parameter biases (e.g., in a table of posterior means and shifts relative to the input cosmology). If the fixed higher-order coefficients are taken directly from the mock generation, the unbiased result may hold only by construction rather than as a general property of the model.
minor comments (1)
  1. The manuscript should include a dedicated section or appendix describing the MGL pipeline architecture, validation tests against existing codes, and public repository link to strengthen the reproducibility claim.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their thorough review and constructive comments on our manuscript. We address each major comment below with point-by-point responses. Where appropriate, we will revise the manuscript to incorporate clarifications and additional quantification while preserving the integrity of the presented results.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract (third result paragraph): The claim that a detection of M_ν is possible for both Y1 and Y10 at k≥0.3 h/Mpc is conditioned on photo-z uncertainties and related nuisance parameters being precisely known. This assumption is load-bearing; realistic marginalization over photo-z shifts (which enter the lensing and clustering kernels) can reintroduce degeneracies with M_ν, bias, and baryonic suppression. The minimal-bias model already produces significant M_ν biases across mocks, so the detection significance is not demonstrated to be robust once photo-z parameters are varied with LSST-like priors.

    Authors: We agree that the M_ν detection result is explicitly conditioned on photo-z uncertainties being precisely known, as already stated in the abstract. Our analysis isolates the impact of bias modeling and scale cuts under this controlled assumption to provide guidance on model complexity. We acknowledge that realistic marginalization over photo-z shifts with LSST-like priors could reintroduce degeneracies, and the paper already notes that the inferred M_ν value is not robust across bias model choices. We will revise the abstract and discussion to further emphasize this limitation and the sensitivity to nuisance parameter assumptions. revision: partial

  2. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract (second result paragraph): The statement that the minimal-bias variant with fixed higher-order terms is unbiased in ΛCDM even at k_max=0.7 h/Mpc requires explicit quantification of any residual parameter biases (e.g., in a table of posterior means and shifts relative to the input cosmology). If the fixed higher-order coefficients are taken directly from the mock generation, the unbiased result may hold only by construction rather than as a general property of the model.

    Authors: We will add a new table in the results section that reports the posterior means, 68% uncertainties, and shifts (in units of the posterior standard deviation) for Ω_m, σ_8, and other ΛCDM parameters under the minimal-bias model at k_max=0.7 h/Mpc, relative to the input mock cosmology. This will provide the explicit quantification requested. On the concern of construction: the higher-order coefficients are fixed to fiducial values from the BACCO emulator calibration, not tuned to the specific mocks used in this analysis. We will add clarifying text in the methods section to make this distinction explicit and demonstrate that the result is not by construction. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity detected

full rationale

The paper's central claims rest on numerical results from the external BACCO emulator applied to mock catalogs and the new MGL pipeline; no derivation step reduces by construction to a fitted parameter renamed as a prediction, a self-defined quantity, or a load-bearing self-citation chain. The M_nu detection statement is explicitly conditioned on an external assumption (precise photo-z knowledge) rather than derived from quantities internal to the paper's equations. The analysis therefore remains self-contained against external benchmarks and receives the default non-circularity finding.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claims rest on the accuracy of the emulator and assumptions about nuisance parameters being known; no new entities are introduced.

free parameters (1)
  • higher-order bias parameters
    Fixed in the minimal bias variant, but their choice affects the robustness of M_nu measurements as shown in the comparisons.
axioms (2)
  • domain assumption The BACCO emulator provides accurate modeling of HEFT galaxy bias and baryonification effects across the relevant scales.
    Central to all modeling of power spectra in the analysis.
  • domain assumption Photo-z uncertainties and related nuisance parameters can be precisely known or controlled.
    Required for the claim that M_nu detection is possible.

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discussion (0)

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Reference graph

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