REVIEW 4 major objections 7 minor 8 references
Plug-in SPMLE estimates survive non-uniqueness and nonresponse
Reviewed by Pith at T0; open to challenge. T0 means a machine referee read the full paper against a public rubric. the ladder, T0–T4 →
T0 review · glm-5.2
2026-07-09 08:13 UTC pith:QUMU4JST
load-bearing objection The stress-test concern about Theorem 2's proof is real but may be fixable; the paper's core ideas and examples are valuable. the 4 major comments →
Empirical Bayes Estimation of the Mean of a Function of the Latent Variable with Applications to the Treatment of Nonresponse
The pith
A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.
Core claim
The key finding is that the non-uniqueness of the SPMLE as an estimator of the mixing distribution G does not propagate to identifiable functionals. Any two SPMLEs produce identical fitted densities at the observed sample points, so any functional that depends on G only through these density values is well-defined regardless of which SPMLE is chosen. Under pointwise consistency of the fitted density (Assumption 1(iii)), the plug-in functional estimator is consistent. This holds in censored and truncated sampling regimes, including missing-not-at-random scenarios, where G itself cannot be recovered.
What carries the argument
The SPMLE (semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator) of the mixing distribution G; Lemma 1 establishing that all SPMLEs agree on the observed density at sample points; Assumption 1 linking identifiable functionals to continuous functions of the observed density at finitely many points; Theorem 2 proving consistency of the plug-in estimator; a modified EM algorithm with a linear constraint on the functional value for computing partially-identified confidence intervals via profile likelihood and Wilks' theorem.
Load-bearing premise
The main consistency theorem requires that the SPMLE of the observed density converges pointwise at any finite set of support points. This is a form of pointwise consistency for the fitted density. The paper provides conditions for total variation consistency (which implies pointwise consistency) under sub-geometric tail conditions, but if those conditions fail for a particular model, the main theorem does not apply.
What would settle it
A concrete scenario where the SPMLE of the observed density fails to converge pointwise at finitely many support points, or where an identifiable functional cannot be approximated by continuous functions of the density at finitely many points. The paper itself provides Example 4, where in a triangular array with a uniform mixing distribution on (0, m) with m growing faster than n², the SPMLE does not converge in total variation, showing the conditions are not vacuous.
If this is right
- Survey estimators for population proportions can remain valid under missing-not-at-random nonresponse, provided the target quantity is identifiable from the observed-data density, without requiring consistent estimation of the full mixing distribution.
- Partially identified parameters can be bounded using profile likelihood intervals derived from the SPMLE, offering honest uncertainty quantification when point identification fails.
- The modified EM algorithm with linear constraints on the functional value provides a practical computational tool for survey agencies dealing with substantial nonresponse.
- The framework extends to truncated data (where non-responding units are entirely unobserved) by reformulating the kernel and adjusting the EM algorithm accordingly, as demonstrated in the consumer-complaints application.
Editorial analysis
A structured set of objections, weighed in public.
Referee Report
Summary. The paper studies estimation of linear functionals of the mixing distribution in a nonparametric empirical Bayes (NPEB) framework, focusing on settings where the mixing distribution is only partially identifiable, as arises with nonresponse (censoring, truncation, or MNAR). The central proposal is to estimate the functional by applying it to the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator (SPMLE) of the mixing distribution, even when the SPMLE is not unique. The paper establishes that the SPMLE is well-defined as an estimator of the observed density (Lemma 1, Lemma 2), provides total-variation consistency results (Theorem 1), and characterizes which functionals can be consistently estimated via Assumption 1 and Theorem 2. A modified EM algorithm for partially identified models with confidence intervals is proposed, and the methods are illustrated through simulations and a real-data application to consumer complaints.
Significance. The paper addresses a practically important problem—estimation under nonresponse and selection bias—within a well-established NPEB framework. The identity in Lemma 1 (uniqueness of the SPMLE density at observed points) and its extension to truncated settings (Lemma 2) are clean and useful results. The proposed modified EM algorithm with profile-likelihood-based confidence intervals for partially identified parameters is a concrete, implementable contribution. The real-data example (Example 11) demonstrates the practical relevance. The framework for handling partially identifiable models via SPMLE functionals is a natural and valuable contribution to the empirical Bayes literature.
major comments (4)
- Theorem 2, proof (Section 4.4): The proof contains a gap in the approximation argument. The chain of reasoning requires controlling |h(f_{Ĝ_n}) - h_m(f_{Ĝ_n})|, i.e., the approximation error of h_m for h evaluated at the SPMLE density f_{Ĝ_n}, not just at the true density f_G. Assumption 1(ii) guarantees h_m(f_G(Y_{1:m})) → h(f_G(Y)) at the true density only. Writing the triangle inequality: |h(f_{Ĝ_n}) - h(f_G)| ≤ |h(f_{Ĝ_n}) - h_m(f_{Ĝ_n})| + |h_m(f_{Ĝ_n}) - h_m(f_G)| + |h_m(f_G) - h(f_G)|. The second term is controlled by Assumption 1(iii) and continuity of h_m; the third by Assumption 1(ii). The first term is uncontrolled. For example, in the Poisson model (Example 6) with η(λ)=λ, h(f)=Σ j·f(j) and h_m truncates at m, so |h(f_{Ĝ_n}) - h_m(f_{Ĝ_n})| = Σ_{j>m} j·f_{Ĝ_n}(j), which requires tail control of f_{Ĝ_n}. Assumption 1(iii) provides only pointwise convergence at fixed points, no
- Theorem 2, proof (Section 4.4): Additionally, the proof as written states 'by Assumption 1(iii) h(f_{Ĝ_n}(Y_{1:m})) converges in probability to h(f_{Ĝ_n}(Y_{1:m}))' which appears to be a typo—it should read convergence to h(f_G(Y_{1:m})). More substantively, the proof invokes h (not h_m) at f_{Ĝ_n}(Y_{1:m}), but Assumption 1(iii) is stated for the vector of densities, and the continuity of h_m (not h) is assumed in 1(ii). The proof should be rewritten to explicitly use the triangle inequality with h_m, address the first term above (e.g., by adding a uniform tail condition on f_{Ĝ_n}, or by requiring that h_m approximates h uniformly over a neighborhood of f_G that contains f_{Ĝ_n} with probability tending to 1), and clarify the roles of h and h_m.
- Theorem 1, proof (Section 4.3): The proof sketch is dense and several steps need clarification. Specifically, the bound 'f̃_n/f_G = O_p(√(f_G/n)) on its support' is used without explicit justification, and the transition from the likelihood inequality (6) to the final TV bound involves multiple intermediate inequalities (e.g., the Taylor expansion step with α*) that are stated but not fully derived. Given that Theorem 1 underpins the applicability of Theorem 2 (via Assumption 1(iii)), a more detailed derivation or reference to a complete proof would strengthen the paper. The connection between the sub-geometric tail condition (5) and the rates ν(ε)=O(|log ε|), ξ(ε)=O(ε) should also be made more explicit.
- Assumption 1(iii) (Section 4.4): The assumption requires pointwise convergence of f_{Ĝ_n}(y_j) → f_G(y_j) for any sequence of SPMLEs. While Theorem 1 provides total variation consistency under certain conditions (implying pointwise convergence), Example 4 demonstrates that the SPMLE can fail to converge in total variation in triangular arrays or even converge weakly to the wrong distribution. The paper should clarify the precise conditions under which Assumption 1(iii) holds—particularly whether the conditions of Theorem 1 are intended to be sufficient, and how the negative examples in Example 4 relate to the applicability of Theorem 2.
minor comments (7)
- Section 4.4, Theorem 2 proof: The sentence 'by Assumption 1(iii) h(f_{Ĝ_n}(Y_{1:m})) converges in probability to h(f_{Ĝ_n}(Y_{1:m}))' is circular as written and likely a typo.
- Algorithm 1 (Section 4.5): The algorithm description is somewhat terse. The update rule g(θ_m) = M_m/(n + γη(θ_m)) should be derived or referenced more carefully, and the role of the γ adaptation loop could be explained more clearly.
- Example 11 (Section 4.5): The claim that 76% of potential companies have 'de facto no complaints' is based on the Good-Toulmin formula. It would help to state the assumptions behind this estimate more explicitly.
- References: The reference 'Ritov and Greenshtein (2022)' is cited in Section 4.1 but appears to correspond to 'Greenshtein and Ritov (2022)' in the reference list. Consistency in citation should be checked throughout.
- Section 4.3, Theorem 1: The notation L_n is described as 'some slowly growing to infinite sequence' but the specific choice or constraints on L_n are not discussed. Clarifying what 'slowly growing' means in this context would help.
- Table 1 (Section 4.5): The column 'Mean CI width' could be labeled more precisely to indicate whether it refers to the MLE-based CI or the naive interval.
- Section 2.2: The identity η_{Ĝ} = (1/n)Σ E_{Ĝ}(η(θ_j)|Y_j) is attributed to Greenshtein and Ritov (2022). It would be useful to briefly indicate the scope of this identity (e.g., for any SPMLE, under what conditions on η).
Simulated Author's Rebuttal
We thank the referee for a careful and constructive report. The referee correctly identifies a genuine gap in the proof of Theorem 2 (the uncontrolled first term in the triangle inequality), as well as issues of proof clarity in Theorem 1 and the relationship between Assumption 1(iii) and the negative examples in Example 4. We address each point below.
read point-by-point responses
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Referee: Theorem 2 proof gap: |h(f_{Ĝ_n}) - h_m(f_{Ĝ_n})| is uncontrolled. Assumption 1(ii) guarantees approximation only at the true density f_G, not at the SPMLE density f_{Ĝ_n}.
Authors: The referee is correct that there is a gap in the proof of Theorem 2 as written. The triangle inequality decomposition makes the issue precise: the first term |h(f_{Ĝ_n}) - h_m(f_{Ĝ_n})| is indeed not controlled by Assumption 1 as currently stated. Assumption 1(ii) provides approximation of h by h_m only at the true density f_G, and Assumption 1(iii) provides pointwise convergence of f_{Ĝ_n} to f_G at finitely many points. Neither directly controls the approximation error of h_m for h when both are evaluated at f_{Ĝ_n}. revision: yes
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Referee: Theorem 2 proof: typo (convergence to h(f_{Ĝ_n}) should read h(f_G)), and proof should use triangle inequality with h_m, address the first term, and clarify roles of h and h_m.
Authors: The referee is correct on both counts. The statement 'h(f_{Ĝ_n}(Y_{1:m})) converges in probability to h(f_{Ĝ_n}(Y_{1:m}))' is indeed a typo; it should read convergence to h(f_G(Y_{1:m})). More substantively, the proof as written does not properly distinguish between h and h_m and does not invoke the triangle inequality with the intermediate approximation h_m. We will rewrite the proof to explicitly use the triangle inequality with h_m and to address the first term. To close the gap, we will strengthen Assumption 1 by requiring that h_m approximates h uniformly over a neighborhood of f_G that contains f_{Ĝ_n} with probability tending to 1. Specifically, we will add the condition that for any ε > 0, there exists m and δ > 0 such that sup_{g: ||g - f_G||_{TV} < δ} |h(g) - h_m(g)| < ε with probability tending to 1. This is satisfied in our examples: in the Poisson case (Example 6), the tail of f_{Ĝ_n} is controlled by Theorem 1's TV consistency combined with the sub-geometric tail condition (5), which ensures that the tail mass of f_{Ĝ_n} beyond m is small uniformly. We will verify this for Examples 5-9 and state the strengthened assumption clearly. revision: yes
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Referee: Theorem 1 proof: the bound f̃_n/f_G = O_p(√(f_G/n)) is used without justification; Taylor expansion step with α* not fully derived; connection between sub-geometric tail condition (5) and rates ν(ε)=O(|log ε|), ξ(ε)=O(ε) should be made explicit.
Authors: We agree that the proof sketch of Theorem 1 is dense and that several intermediate steps need expansion. The bound f̃_n/f_G = O_p(√(f_G/n)) on its support follows from standard empirical process arguments for multinomial proportions: for cells with f_G(y_j) ≥ L_n/n, the empirical frequency f̃_n(y_j) satisfies a CLT-type bound f̃_n(y_j) = f_G(y_j) + O_p(√(f_G(y_j)/n)), which gives the stated ratio. We will add this justification explicitly. The Taylor expansion step with α* is a second-order expansion of log(1 + x) around x = (f_{Ĝ_n} - f̃_n)/f̃_n, where α* ∈ [0,1] is the intermediate value from the mean-value theorem applied to the function log(1+·). We will spell out this derivation. Regarding the connection between condition (5) and the rates: condition (5) states that inf_m f_G(y_m) · Σ_{j≥m} f_G(y_j) > 0, which means the tail mass Σ_{j≥m} f_G(y_j) decays at most as fast as 1/f_G(y_m). For sub-geometric tails (e.g., Poisson with bounded second moment), f_G(y_m) decays roughly as e^{-c m log m}, so the number of cells with f_G ≥ ε is O(|log ε|) (giving ν(ε) = O(|log ε|)), and the tail mass below ε is O(ε) (giving ξ(ε) = O(ε)). We will make this connection explicit in the revised manuscript. revision: yes
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Referee: Assumption 1(iii): clarify conditions under which it holds, whether Theorem 1 conditions are intended to be sufficient, and how the negative examples in Example 4 relate to the applicability of Theorem 2.
Authors: We agree that the relationship between Assumption 1(iii), Theorem 1, and Example 4 needs clarification. The conditions of Theorem 1 (specifically, the sub-geometric tail condition (5)) are intended to be sufficient for Assumption 1(iii): TV consistency implies pointwise convergence of densities at any fixed set of points, which is what Assumption 1(iii) requires. The negative examples in Example 4 are precisely cases where the conditions of Theorem 1 fail. In the first Example 4 scenario (uniform mixing on (0, m_n) with m_n > n^2), the tail condition (5) fails because the support grows with n in a triangular array, and the SPMLE does not converge in TV. In the second scenario (star-shaped density), the SPMLE converges to the wrong distribution, again because the conditions of Theorem 1 are violated. These examples serve to delineate the boundary of applicability: Theorem 2 applies when Theorem 1's conditions hold (ensuring Assumption 1(iii)), and Example 4 illustrates what goes wrong when they do not. We will add a remark after Assumption 1 making this relationship explicit: Assumption 1(iii) is verified by the conditions of Theorem 1, and the examples in Example 4 show that these conditions cannot simply be dropped. revision: yes
Circularity Check
No significant circularity; one minor self-citation for a non-load-bearing identity
full rationale
The paper's central claim (Theorem 2: consistency of the functional estimator under partial identifiability) is derived from Assumption 1 and Lemma 1, both of which are established within the paper itself. Lemma 1 (uniqueness of f_Ĝn at observed points) is proved directly via the concavity argument of the log-likelihood. Theorem 1 (TV consistency) is proved from scratch using empirical process bounds. Theorem 2's proof chain—Assumption 1(iii) gives pointwise convergence of f_Ĝn, combined with continuity of h_m and Assumption 1(ii) for approximation—does not reduce to a fitted input or a self-cited result by construction. The one self-citation is to Greenshtein and Ritov (2022) for the identity η_Ĝ = (1/n)Σ E_Ĝ(η(θ_j)|Y_j), which is a self-consistency equation derived from the likelihood derivative (re-derived in Section 4.1) and is not the load-bearing step for the consistency claim. The skeptic's concern about a proof gap (Assumption 1(ii) holding at f_G but needed at f_Ĝn) is a correctness/completeness issue, not circularity—the proof does not assume its conclusion. No prediction is equivalent to its input by construction, no parameter is fitted and then renamed as a prediction, and no uniqueness theorem is imported from self-citation to force the conclusion. The derivation is substantially self-contained against external benchmarks (simulations in Example 10, real data in Example 11). Score 2 reflects the minor self-citation that is not load-bearing for the central theorem.
Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger
free parameters (2)
- Grid size for EM algorithm =
100x100 or 500x500
- Truncation parameter kappa =
varies by example
axioms (4)
- domain assumption Assumption 1(i): There is a function h such that for all G, the functional of G equals h applied to the observed density f_G.
- domain assumption Assumption 1(ii): There are continuous functions h_m such that h_m(f_G(Y_1:m)) converges to h(f_G(Y)).
- domain assumption Assumption 1(iii): For any sequence of SPMLEs, the estimated density at any finite set of points converges in probability to the true density at those points.
- domain assumption Conditional independence of response and outcome given latent parameters.
read the original abstract
We consider the estimation of linear functionals of the mixing distribution in a nonparametric empirical Bayes framework. Our main interest is in situations in which the mixing distribution is only partially identifiable, as may arise in complex sampling situations with nonresponse. We argue that estimating the functional by applying it to the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the mixing distribution is an efficient tool, even when the maximum likelihood estimator is not unique.
Figures
Reference graph
Works this paper leans on
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[1]
In Lemma 1, Section 4.1, and Lemma 2, Section 4.2, we show that the SPMLE of the mixing distribution, even if it is not unique as an esti- mator of the distribution, is well-defined as an estimator of the observed distribution
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[2]
In Section 4.3, we also discuss its convergence rate in total variation
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[3]
Assumption 1 and Theorem 2, Section 4.4, characterize the functionals that can be estimated as a limit of the observed density at a finite number of points
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[4]
We, thus, argue that even when the SPMLE is not unique, and the mix- ing distribution is unidentifiable, the functionals of the SPMLE are good estimators for identifiable functionals
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[5]
We suggest CIs that include the unidenti- fiable range
In Section 4.5, we discuss the partially identified situation and the use of the SPMLE in such situations. We suggest CIs that include the unidenti- fiable range
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[6]
We exemplify the concepts discussed in this paper in different sampling examples. See Sections 3 and 4.4. A simulation study is given in Section 4.5, Example 10, and real data is analyzed in Example 11. 3 Examples. The next example was considered in Greenshtein and Itskov (2014). SPMLE with nonresponse6 Example 2.Consider a survey in which each sampled it...
work page 2014
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[7]
What are inf{η ˆG : ˆGis SPMLE}and sup{η ˆG : ˆGis SPMLE}?
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[8]
Identification of Dynamic Panel Logit Models with Fixed Effects
What are the minimal and maximal values ofη G that the data cannot reject? SPMLE with nonresponse16 By Lemma 1, given a single realization of the SPMLE, all other SPMLEs are defined by the linear constraints and, thus, the first question can be answered using standard linear programming: Find min G ± Z η(θ)dG(θ) s.t. Z f(y i |θ)dG(θ) =f ˆG(yi), i= 1, . . ...
work page internal anchor Pith review Pith/arXiv arXiv 2011
discussion (0)
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