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Two low-density sub-Jovian planets around HD 148797 show that compact multi-planet systems are the norm in the Neptunian savanna, pointing to disk-driven rather than disruptive migration.

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2026-07-13 01:24 UTC pith:PLBFEZKG

load-bearing objection Solid new twin-planet system with photodynamical masses; the savanna multi-architecture claim is useful but explicitly detection-limited, not occurrence-corrected. the 2 major comments →

arxiv 2607.09656 v1 pith:PLBFEZKG submitted 2026-07-10 astro-ph.EP

HD 148797: A bright F-type star with two moderate-period low-density sub-Jovian planets. Compact multi-planet architectures are common in the Neptunian savanna

J.M. Almenara , A. Castro-Gonz\'alez , R. Mardling , T. Guillot , X. Bonfils , L. Thomas , L. Gauvrit , L. Abe
show 21 more authors
A. Agabi J. Aubert F. Bouchy C. Cadieux A. Deline R.F. D\'iaz D. Ehrenreich T. Forveille A. Heitzmann P. Hirling R.M. Hoogenboom A. Leleu M. Lendl D. M\'ekarnia S. Pelletier A. Psaridi E. Rea X. Song O. Su\'arez A.H.M.J. Triaud S. Udry
This is my paper
classification astro-ph.EP
keywords exoplanetstransit photometrytransit-timing variationsNeptunian savannasub-Jovian planetsplanetary migrationphotodynamical modellingHD 148797
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

This paper confirms two moderate-period sub-Jovian planets around the bright F-type star HD 148797 and uses their anti-correlated transit-timing variations to measure masses of about 39 Earth masses each. Both planets have low bulk densities near 0.4 g cm^{-3} and sit in the sparsely populated Neptunian savanna at periods of 42 and 68 days. The system itself is compact, with a period ratio near 1.62 and low mutual inclination. Looking at the wider archive sample of similar-radius planets, the authors find that multi-planet detections remain common (roughly 70-90 percent) across the savanna and that most of those systems contain at least one tight adjacent pair. That architectural pattern is hard to square with high-eccentricity tidal migration, which tends to clear companions, and is instead more consistent with smoother disk-driven migration. Because the host is bright and the two planets are co-evolved twins, the system is also a natural target for comparative atmospheric studies.

Core claim

HD 148797 hosts two low-density sub-Jovian planets whose anti-correlated TTVs yield photodynamical masses near 39 Earth masses; the architecture of this system, and of the broader savanna population, is predominantly compact and multi-planet, implying that savanna sub-Jovians commonly form and migrate in dynamically cold systems rather than through disruptive high-eccentricity tidal migration.

What carries the argument

Photodynamical modelling of anti-correlated transit-timing variations: an n-body light-curve fit that converts the multi-harmonic TTV signal of the near-golden-mean period ratio into simultaneous masses, eccentricities, and densities for both planets, while also confirming they orbit the same star.

Load-bearing premise

That the high rate of detected multi-planet systems and tight period ratios in the savanna truly reflects intrinsically cold architectures, rather than being inflated by detection bias, while the isolation of ridge planets is only inferred from non-detections.

What would settle it

A homogeneous occurrence-rate analysis that accounts for detection completeness, or a statistically significant sample of dense sub-Jovians at periods of tens to hundreds of days, would overturn the claim that savanna planets are systematically low-density and multi-planet while ridge planets are isolated and denser.

Watch this falsifier — get emailed when new claim-graph text bears on it.

If this is right

  • Savanna sub-Jovians should continue to show high multi-system fractions and adjacent period ratios below 3 out to at least ~100-300 days.
  • Dense ridge-like sub-Jovians, if they exist as progenitors, must lie at wider orbits than those already surveyed, or ridge densities must be produced after formation.
  • HD 148797 becomes a prime target for comparative transmission spectroscopy of two co-evolved warm sub-Jovians around the same bright star.
  • Future transit scheduling that samples the strongest TTV harmonics can break remaining mass-eccentricity degeneracies without radial velocities.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If disk-driven migration is the dominant pathway in the savanna, systems like HD 148797 should also show low spin-orbit obliquities once Rossiter-McLaughlin measurements become available.
  • The near-golden-mean period ratio may be coincidental, but the multi-harmonic TTV structure it produces is a general template for mass measurements of non-resonant compact pairs.
  • Atmospheric metallicity and C/O differences between the two planets, if detected, would directly probe whether accretion halted at the same disk-dispersal epoch.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

2 major / 6 minor

Summary. The paper confirms two moderate-period sub-Jovian planets around the bright F star HD 148797 (P=42.1 and 68.2 d; Rp≈8.3 RE) using TESS, CHEOPS, EulerCam, and ASTEP photometry. Anti-correlated TTVs are modelled photodynamically with REBOUND/WHFast + batman and per-dataset GP noise, yielding masses ~39 ME and bulk densities ~0.39 and 0.38 g cm−3. The system is placed in the Neptunian savanna; a NASA Exoplanet Archive census of 4.5–8.5 RE planets with measured masses finds detected multi-system fractions of ~70–90% in the savanna and that most such multi-planet systems have at least one adjacent pair with Pout/Pin<3, which the authors interpret as favouring disk-driven rather than high-eccentricity tidal migration. Interior retrievals and TSM values are also presented.

Significance. A well-characterised, bright, co-evolved pair of warm savanna sub-Jovians with dynamical masses is a useful benchmark for density and architecture studies beyond ~30 d, where the sample is sparse. The photodynamical analysis is carefully executed (n-body light curves, light-time effect, cadence oversampling, GP noise), and the anti-correlated TTVs cleanly establish that both signals belong to the same system. The population census of detected architectures is a clear observational result that strengthens the ridge–savanna architectural contrast already suggested by hot-Jupiter isolation. The authors correctly flag that ridge isolation is inferred from non-detections and that a homogeneous occurrence-rate analysis is still needed. The system is also a strong target for comparative atmospheric work.

major comments (2)
  1. §5.1 and Figs. 4–5: the central population claim is framed as a detected multi-system fraction (~70–90%) and compact Pout/Pin statistics. That framing is appropriate, but the interpretive step to “dynamically cold systems / DDM rather than HEM” still rests on the assumption that detection bias does not dominate the ridge–savanna contrast. The paper already notes that ridge isolation is inferred from non-detections and that a homogeneous occurrence-rate analysis is required. Please make that caveat more prominent in the Abstract and Conclusions (not only in §5.1), and state explicitly that the reported fractions are not completeness-corrected occurrence rates.
  2. §4 and Fig. A.4: with only seven transits of b and four of c, the mass–eccentricity posterior remains strongly correlated (e up to ~0.4). The reported densities stay low across the posterior, so the low-density claim is robust, but the ~4σ mass precisions and the quoted 1σ intervals should be accompanied by a short quantitative statement of how much Mp changes when e is restricted (e.g. e<0.1 vs free). This is load-bearing for any future use of these masses as benchmarks.
minor comments (6)
  1. Abstract / §5.3: the period ratio is “very close to the golden mean”; the dynamical discussion is interesting but the coincidence is already labelled as such. Consider shortening the golden-mean emphasis in the Abstract so the main results (masses, densities, architecture census) remain primary.
  2. Fig. 1 caption and text: the note that the Sector 66 double transit is not a mutual event is useful; ensure the figure itself or a short note makes the transit order unambiguous for non-specialist readers.
  3. Table A.2: P′ and T′_0 are defined carefully in the notes; a one-line reminder in the main text that they are not the linear ephemerides would help.
  4. §5.4 / Table 3: the CMF–log(Fe/H) degeneracy is acknowledged; stating the prior ranges and that f_H/He is more robust than CMF would make the runaway-accretion discussion clearer.
  5. Fig. A.2 caption still refers to “TOI-7510”; correct to HD 148797.
  6. Scattered typography (e.g. “V okrouhlický”, occasional spacing in units) should be cleaned in production.

Circularity Check

1 steps flagged

No significant circularity: photodynamical masses and catalog multi-system fractions are independent of the ridge/savanna definitions they are placed into.

specific steps
  1. self citation load bearing [§1 Introduction; §5.1–5.2; Fig. 4–6 (ridge/savanna definitions)]
    "the Neptunian savanna (Bourrier et al. 2023), where sub-Jovians are more sparsely distributed (Porb ≳6 d; Castro-González et al. 2024a) ... Castro-González et al. (2024b) found that planets in the savanna typically have low densities (ρp ≲1 g cm−3), whereas planets in the ridge can reach substantially higher densities"

    The period cuts that define ‘ridge’ vs ‘savanna’ and the prior density trend are taken from papers that share authors with the present work. This is ordinary nomenclature self-citation: it supplies the bins into which the new system and the archive census are placed, but it does not determine the TTV masses, radii, densities, or the multi-system fractions themselves. Not load-bearing for the central claims; flagged only for completeness.

full rationale

The paper is an observational characterization plus a catalog architecture census. Planetary radii come from transit depths and stellar radius; masses come from anti-correlated TTVs fitted with an n-body photodynamical model (REBOUND + batman + GP noise); densities are the ratio of those quantities. The population claim is a direct count of NASA Exoplanet Archive systems with 4.5–8.5 RE planets that have measured masses, reporting detected multi-system fractions and adjacent period ratios. The ridge/savanna period boundaries are taken from the authors’ prior papers, which is ordinary self-citation for nomenclature and does not force the new system’s parameters or the multi-fraction numbers. No quantity is defined in terms of the result it is said to predict, no fitted parameter is re-labelled as an independent prediction, and no uniqueness theorem is imported to forbid alternatives. Residual mass–eccentricity correlation and detection-bias caveats are acknowledged by the authors and do not constitute circular construction. Score 1 reflects only the non-load-bearing self-citation of the region definitions.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

5 free parameters · 5 axioms · 0 invented entities

Central claims rest on standard n-body gravity, transit photometry, and catalog selection cuts plus the authors’ prior ridge/savanna period boundaries. Free parameters are the usual orbital elements, masses, radii, and GP hyperparameters fitted to the light curves and TTVs; no new physical constants or ad-hoc mediators are introduced. Interior structure uses an existing two-layer model with free CMF and envelope metallicity.

free parameters (5)
  • Planet masses Mp_b, Mp_c (photodynamical) = 39.3+13/-8.5 ME, 39.6±9.3 ME
    Fitted via n-body TTV amplitudes; central to density and migration discussion. Posterior medians 39.3+13/-8.5 and 39.6±9.3 ME.
  • Eccentricities e_b, e_c and arguments of periastron = e_b=0.153±0.093, e_c=0.126±0.081
    Weakly constrained (0–0.4); mass–eccentricity correlation affects mass posteriors. Fitted in Jacobi elements at t_ref.
  • GP kernel hyperparameters (per dataset)
    Matern-like noise terms for each TESS sector, ASTEP, and CHEOPS visit; absorb residual systematics that could bias transit times.
  • Stellar mass and radius priors (then re-fitted) = M⋆=1.268±0.080 M⊙, R⋆=1.569±0.069 R⊙ (priors)
    SED+isochrone posteriors with 4.2%/5% systematic floors used as normal priors in the photodynamical model.
  • Interior CMF and log(Fe/H) for each planet = CMF_b≈0.45, CMF_c≈0.42; log(Fe/H)≈-0.2±1.2
    Free parameters in GASTLI retrieval grids; drive envelope mass fraction and Zplanet/Z⋆ conclusions.
axioms (5)
  • domain assumption Newtonian n-body gravity with REBOUND/WHFast accurately predicts TTVs for these masses and periods at 0.02 d timestep
    Invoked throughout §4; maximum photometric model error stated <1 ppm.
  • domain assumption Neptunian ridge (≈3–6 d) and savanna (Porb≳6 d) boundaries as defined by Castro-González et al. (2024a)
    Used to classify systems in §5.1–5.2 and Figs. 4–6; prior work by overlapping authors.
  • domain assumption Detected companions in the NASA Exoplanet Archive sample (4.5–8.5 RE with measured mass) are a fair proxy for architectural trends
    §5.1 explicitly uses detected multi-fractions; authors note occurrence-rate analysis is still needed.
  • standard math Quadratic limb darkening (Kipping 2013 parametrization) and zero-albedo full-redistribution Teq
    Standard transit and equilibrium-temperature assumptions in Table A.2.
  • domain assumption Two-layer GASTLI interior (rock+water core, H/He+water envelope) for warm sub-Jovians
    §5.4 retrieval; model from Acuña et al. 2021/2024.

pith-pipeline@v1.1.0-grok45 · 31315 in / 3446 out tokens · 38286 ms · 2026-07-13T01:24:31.834995+00:00 · methodology

0 comments
read the original abstract

We report the confirmation and characterisation of two moderate-period sub-Jovian planets transiting the bright F-type star HD 148797 (G=9.4 mag, Teff=6441 +/- 51 K). Using photometric time series from TESS and CHEOPS, we determine orbital periods of 42.1 d for HD 148797 b and 68.2 d for HD 148797 c, putting the period ratio very close to the golden mean at 1.619 and therefore near several strong harmonics, and measure planetary radii of 8.25 +/- 0.37 RE and 8.37 +/- 0.38 RE, respectively. We detect significant anti-correlated transit-timing variations for both planets, which contain enough harmonic information to yield photodynamical masses of 39.3 +13 -8.5 ME for HD 148797 b and 39.6 +/- 9.3 ME for HD 148797 c. The corresponding bulk densities, 0.39 +/- 0.12 and 0.377 +/- 0.084 g/cm3, place both planets among the low-density sub-Jovians of the Neptunian savanna. The architecture of HD 148797 is not unusual within this regime: we find that detected multi-system fractions in the savanna remain at ~70-90%, and that most savanna multi-planet systems contain at least one adjacent planet pair with Pout/Pin < 3. This pattern suggests that savanna sub-Jovians are commonly found in dynamically cold systems, consistent with smoother migration pathways such as disk-driven migration rather than disruptive high-eccentricity tidal migration. As a bright, co-evolved system hosting two warm savanna sub-Jovians with similar radii and masses, HD 148797 is also a promising target for comparative atmospheric characterisation.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2607.09656 by A. Agabi, A. Castro-Gonz\'alez, A. Deline, A. Heitzmann, A.H.M.J. Triaud, A. Leleu, A. Psaridi, C. Cadieux, D. Ehrenreich, D. M\'ekarnia, E. Rea, F. Bouchy, J. Aubert, J.M. Almenara, L. Abe, L. Gauvrit, L. Thomas, M. Lendl, O. Su\'arez, P. Hirling, R.F. D\'iaz, R. Mardling, R.M. Hoogenboom, S. Pelletier, S. Udry, T. Forveille, T. Guillot, X. Bonfils, X. Song.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Photodynamical modelling of the space-based transit photometry. The black line is the MAP model that combines both transits and noise, while the gray line shows the pure transit model. Vertical lines mark the midtransit time of planets b (blue) and c (orange), and are labelled by the number of orbital periods since the first observed transit [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p004_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Same as [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p004_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Posterior TTV predictions of planets b (blue band) and c (orange band) computed relative to a linear ephemeris (Table A.2). A thousand random draws from the posterior distribution were used to estimate the median TTV values and their uncertainties (68.3% confidence interval). The upper panel shows the posterior TTV values and compares them with the individual transit-time determinations (Table A.3, error b… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Detected orbital architectures of planetary systems in the Neptunian ridge (left panel) and savanna (right panel). The sample is drawn from the NASA Exoplanet Archive (Christiansen et al. 2025) and includes systems hosting at least one planet with measured mass and radius in the range 4.5–8.5 RE. Systems are grouped according to whether the selected sub-Jovian planet lies in the ridge (3–6 d; shaded region… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Observed multi-planet system fraction as a function of orbital period for sub-Jovian planets (4.5–8.5 RE) drawn from the NASA Ex￾oplanet Archive (Christiansen et al. 2025). The shaded region marks the ridge (≃ 3–6 d) and the remaining bins correspond to the savanna (Castro-González et al. 2024a). The lower panel shows the number of systems in each period bin. 5.3. TTVs for a system close to the golden mean… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Location of HD 148797 b and c in the exo-Neptunian landscape. Left: period–radius diagram of the known exoplanet population, showing the Neptunian desert, ridge, and savanna regions as defined by Castro-González et al. (2024a). Right: period–density diagram for the subset of planets with measured bulk densities. In the density plane, the red curve shows the tidal survival limit expected after HEM from Cast… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Lomb-Scargle periodogram (Press & Rybicki 1989) of the TTVs of planet b (blue) and c (orange), computed from the MAP of the photo￾dynamical model from the first transit observation up to the year 2050, showing the peaks associated with the modulation periods of different resonances. The upper panel displays the histogram of the period ra￾tios of adjacent planets in known systems (NASA Exoplanet Archive, Ch… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Mass–radius diagram for planets from the NASA Exoplanet Archive (Christiansen et al. 2025) with masses and radii measured to better than 25% and 10%, respectively. Dashed lines represent iso￾density curves. This plot was produced with mr-plotter (Castro￾González et al. 2023). velope fractions is naturally explained if disk dispersal set a com￾mon endpoint to their accretion, in line with the dynamically co… view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Transmission spectroscopy metric as a function of planetary or￾bital period for planets with Rp > 4 RE. Gray dots show the broader sam￾ple, with marker size proportional to planetary radius. Data are taken from the NASA Exoplanet Archive (Christiansen et al. 2025). Systems hosting two or more planets with Rp > 4 RE and TSM > 10 are labelled. Each labelled system is shown in a distinct colour, and its plan… view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Heavy-element enrichment of non-inflated transiting planets relative to their parent stars as a function of mass. The grey error bars, with upper limits indicated by downward triangles, show the sample of planets analysed by Chachan et al. (2025), and its fitted relation (median and 1σ interval) is shown in blue. The relation from Thorngren et al. (2016) is shown in red. The range of values for Solar Syst… view at source ↗

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