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REVIEW 3 major objections 5 minor 77 references

Three galaxy simulations fail radiative AGN demographics test, the paper reports.

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2026-08-01 12:15 UTC pith:6KRPSJSJ

load-bearing objection Useful, honest model-testing paper whose main 'all simulations fail' conclusion leans on a contested narrow-line benchmark, and whose EAGLE 'pass' is more conditional than the phrase suggests. the 3 major comments →

arxiv 2607.19603 v1 pith:6KRPSJSJ submitted 2026-07-21 astro-ph.GA

AGN Feedback Models and AGN Demographics II: Comparing Predictions of Radiative and Total Feedback to Observations

Arjun Suresh , Michael R. Blanton This is my paper
classification astro-ph.GA
keywords AGN feedbackradiative-mode AGNEddington ratioF_AGN demographicscosmological simulationsgalaxy quenchingradio-mode AGNnarrow-line AGN
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper tests whether three cosmological simulations—EAGLE, SIMBA, and TNG100—predict the same relationship between radiative AGN activity and host galaxy properties that the authors measured in a companion optical survey. That measurement gives F_AGN(M*, sSFR), the fraction of galaxies hosting a radiative AGN with Eddington ratio above 10^-3: roughly flat with stellar mass in star-forming galaxies, but declining steeply with stellar mass in quiescent galaxies. The paper reports that none of the three simulations reproduces this pattern for any allowed shift in the Eddington-ratio threshold. It then constructs a combined radiative-plus-radio constraint and reports that EAGLE's total AGN feedback energy agrees with observations, but only after rescaling the radiative Eddington ratios by EAGLE's coupling efficiency epsilon_f=0.15 and shifting the threshold by one dex—equivalent to a factor-ten reduction in EAGLE's effective feedback power. If correct, this shows that current subgrid AGN feedback prescriptions, though calibrated to galaxy populations, do not capture the actual demographics of black-hole accretion.

Core claim

The paper's core claim: three simulations—EAGLE, SIMBA, TNG100—fail an independent demographic test: none matches F_AGN(M*, sSFR), the observed fraction of galaxies hosting a radiative AGN with Eddington ratio above 10^-3. Observed F_AGN is flat with stellar mass for star-forming galaxies but declines steeply for quiescent ones; EAGLE misses the quiescent decline, SIMBA's decline is too shallow, and TNG100 predicts almost no quiescent AGN. For EAGLE, a combined radiative-plus-radio constraint passes only after radiative Eddington ratios are rescaled by epsilon_f=0.15 and the threshold shifted by Delta log10(lambda_c)=1—an effective factor-ten reduction in EAGLE's feedback power.

What carries the argument

The central object is F_AGN(M*, sSFR), the completeness-corrected fraction of galaxies hosting a radiative AGN with Eddington ratio above a threshold lambda_c=10^-3, binned in stellar mass and specific star formation rate. The companion narrow-line survey supplies the observed version; the same quantity computed from simulation catalogs supplies the predictions. Two derived metrics carry the argument: the log-log slope of F_AGN versus M* for star-forming and quiescent galaxies separately, and the log F_AGN separation between the two populations at a pivot mass. The comparison also uses a shifted threshold Delta log10(lambda_c) to absorb normalization differences, and, for EAGLE's total-feedb

Load-bearing premise

The load-bearing assumption is that the narrow-line-derived F_AGN benchmark—especially the steep decline of the radiative AGN fraction with stellar mass in quiescent galaxies—is the true intrinsic AGN fraction; the paper explicitly notes that X-ray-based measurements do not show this decline and proceeds using the narrow-line benchmark anyway.

What would settle it

Measure the intrinsic radiative AGN fraction in quiescent galaxies over 10<log M*/M_sun<12 with a non-narrow-line selection (e.g., X-ray) and apply the same completeness corrections; if the decline with stellar mass disappears, the paper's claim that all three simulations fail qualitatively is falsified. Within the same simulations, examine the full Eddington-ratio distribution of EAGLE black holes: if it is not shifted roughly tenfold high relative to observed lambda distributions, the factor-ten rescaling needed for EAGLE's 'pass' is an artifact rather than a physical offset.

Watch this falsifier — get emailed when new claim-graph text bears on it.

If this is right

  • If the narrow-line benchmark is correct, AGN-fraction demographics are a sharp independent test that current feedback models fail, despite reproducing galaxy stellar-mass functions.
  • The failure implies the simulated coupling between black-hole accretion and host-galaxy quiescence is wrong: real galaxies show a strong mass-dependent suppression of radiative AGN in quiescent systems that no tested subgrid model produces.
  • EAGLE's apparent success for total feedback indicates the overall energy budget of AGN feedback may be close to right even when the radiative/radio split and Eddington-ratio normalization are off by about a factor of ten.
  • For TNG100, tuning the mode-transition threshold to fit radiative AGN fractions moves the model away from fitting radio AGN fractions and likely worsens the galaxy stellar-mass-function fit, suggesting a structural limitation.
  • The observational disagreement between narrow-line and X-ray selections means the benchmark itself is the immediate thing to check; if X-ray measurements are right, the central failure claim has to be reconsidered.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • A direct implication the paper leaves implicit: EAGLE's simulated Eddington-ratio distribution is probably shifted high by about one dex relative to real radiative AGN; one could test this by comparing the full lambda distribution, not just thresholded fractions, against local black-hole mass and luminosity samples.
  • The strong quiescent decline, if real, may be telling modelers that radiative AGN triggering depends on a property that correlates with stellar mass in quiescent galaxies—e.g., black-hole mass, halo mass, or merger history—rather than only on gas supply; this is a concrete modification direction.
  • A decisive observational step would be to apply the same completeness corrections to X-ray-selected and narrow-line-selected AGN in the same optical integral-field sample; this would settle whether the quiescent decline is a selection artifact and determine which benchmark simulations should be judged against.
  • The paper's EAGLE 'pass' is contingent on the adopted bolometric and jet-power conversion factors; changing those factors changes the required Delta log10(lambda_c), so an independent calibration of those conversions is a straightforward extension that would determine whether the factor-ten offset is real or an artifact.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

3 major / 5 minor

Summary. The paper tests the radiative-mode AGN feedback prescriptions of the EAGLE, SIMBA, and TNG100 cosmological simulations against the observed intrinsic radiative AGN fraction F_AGN(M*,sSFR), defined as the completeness-corrected fraction of galaxies hosting an AGN with Eddington ratio >1e-3. The observational benchmark is the narrow-line-based measurement of Blanton et al. (2026), which finds that F_AGN is roughly constant with stellar mass for star-forming galaxies but declines steeply with stellar mass for quiescent galaxies (slope -1.11). The authors compute F_AGN from public simulation catalogs, allowing for a normalization shift Δlog10 λc, and conclude that none of the three simulations reproduces the observed trends even qualitatively: EAGLE fails on the quiescent decline, SIMBA fails on the star-forming slope, and TNG100 fails on both. They also explore a modified TNG100 transition threshold (Equation 10), which improves the quiescent trend but not the star-forming trend. Finally, for EAGLE, which lacks a separate radio mode, they construct a combined radiative+radio F_AGN constraint by rescaling the radiative Eddington ratios by EAGLE's coupling efficiency εf=0.15, and report that EAGLE passes this combined test at Δlog10 λc=1.

Significance. If the Blanton et al. (2026) benchmark is accepted, the paper provides a valuable independent test: none of the three simulations was tuned to F_AGN, the analysis uses public catalogs, and the authors check sensitivity to instantaneous versus time-averaged accretion rates. The conclusion that current radiative-mode subgrid models fail to match AGN host demographics would be important for the simulation community. However, the central claim rests on a benchmark that the authors themselves note conflicts with X-ray AGN measurements (Aird et al. 2019; Birchall et al. 2023) for quiescent galaxies. Because that disagreement is acknowledged but not resolved, the headline result is not yet robust. The secondary EAGLE 'pass' is also constructed using the model's own coupling efficiency and a chosen normalization shift, so its interpretation as an independent success is overstated.

major comments (3)
  1. [§1, Fig. 1, Table 1] The central 'none of the simulations reproduces the trends' claim rests on the Blanton et al. (2026) narrow-line F_AGN(M*,sSFR), especially the steep quiescent slope of -1.11 (Table 1). The manuscript itself states in Section 1 (and again in Section 5) that Aird et al. (2019) and Birchall et al. (2023), using X-ray selection, do not find this decline, and that 'the origin of these differences remains unclear.' Because the quiescent trend is precisely where all three simulations are judged to fail, this acknowledged discrepancy is load-bearing. Please add a quantitative comparison (or at least a robustness test) using the X-ray-based F_AGN(M*,sSFR) measurements, and state whether the qualitative failure persists when that alternative benchmark is adopted. Without this, the main conclusion is conditional on the narrow-line completeness correction being unbiased.
  2. [§3.1, §3.2.6, Fig. 4] Section 3.1 notes that for TNG100 negative values of Δlog10 λc are more appropriate, yet Section 3.2.6 and Figure 4 present only Δ=0,1,2 for the default TNG model. The Abstract and Section 5 state that none of the simulations reproduces the trends 'for any choice of Δlog10(λc)'; for TNG this assertion is untested in the shown default-model comparison. Please either show the negative-shift panels or restrict the overclaim, since a large negative shift would substantially change the quiescent population that enters F_AGN.
  3. [§4.3, Eq. (11), Fig. 7] The combined EAGLE comparison is constructed by rescaling the observed radiative Eddington ratios by EAGLE's own coupling efficiency εf=0.15 (Section 4.3.1) and then selecting Δlog10 λc=1, i.e. an additional factor-of-ten normalization shift, to obtain 'almost perfectly consistent' predictions. Thus the pass does not constitute an independent prediction of the total feedback level; it fixes two normalization parameters using the model itself. Furthermore, Table 3 shows 1σ bounds spanning ≳1 dex in many bins, so 'consistent' should be quantified with a goodness-of-fit statistic. I recommend reframing this as a calibration-consistency result and separating the shape comparison from the absolute-efficiency inference.
minor comments (5)
  1. [§1, §3.2.6] Typos: 'cosntraints' in the Introduction; 'compare that to our observational.' is an incomplete sentence in Section 3.2.6.
  2. [§2, Eq. (10)] 'Thompson cross section' should be 'Thomson cross section'. In Equation (10), M0 is introduced without definition; please define it and relate it to the default parameters in Equation (7).
  3. [Figure 2] The EAGLE star-forming/quiescent division in the Figure 2 caption is log10(sSFR/yr^-1)=-11, while SIMBA and TNG use -11.5. Clarify whether the sSFR cut choice affects cross-simulation comparisons.
  4. [§3.2.5] TNG100 uses instantaneous accretion rates only; the robustness argument from EAGLE/SIMBA is indirect. A direct time-average test for TNG would strengthen the claim that burstiness does not matter.
  5. [§4.2] The modified TNG fit is an optimization against the same observable F_AGN, so the improved agreement is unsurprising. Although this is acknowledged, it would be clearer to label the result as illustrative of model flexibility rather than as evidence for the modified prescription.

Circularity Check

1 steps flagged

The main 'all simulations fail' claim is an independent test, but the EAGLE 'pass' is partly constructed from EAGLE's own coupling efficiency and a post-hoc factor-ten threshold shift.

specific steps
  1. self definitional [Section 4.3.1-4.3.2 (Eq. 11, Figure 7); reiterated in Section 5]
    "we re-derive the radiative AGN observational constraint shown in Figure 1 by scaling its Eddington ratios by the EAGLE coupling efficiency, ϵf = 0.15. We then sum this rescaled radiative constraint with the radio AGN constraint from Suresh et al. (2026) ... Note that the coupling efficiency ϵf = 0.15 is explicitly included in this definition of λ ... Consequently, the EAGLE FAGN(M⋆,sSFR) curves in Figure 7 correspond to the same curves shown in Figure 2, but with the original Eddington ratios scaled downward by a factor of 0.15."

    The 'observed' combined benchmark is constructed by multiplying the radiative Eddington ratios by EAGLE's own coupling efficiency εf=0.15, and EAGLE's predicted combined λ (Eq. 11) contains the same factor. The factor therefore cancels in the comparison, so the procedure cannot independently test EAGLE's assumed coupling efficiency. The claimed agreement is reached only after also choosing Δlog10(λc)=1, an effective factor-ten reduction of EAGLE's feedback power relative to the observations. Calling this an 'independent test' and a 'pass' overstates the result: the outcome is partially determined by the model's own parameter and a post-hoc normalization shift, although the M⋆-sSFR shape information in the comparison is still external.

full rationale

The central radiative-failure claim is not circular. The paper explicitly notes that none of EAGLE, SIMBA, or TNG100 was calibrated to reproduce F_AGN(M⋆,sSFR): 'none of the above simulations have been tuned to reproduce the observed AGN-host relationship in terms of FAGN(M⋆,sSFR). Consequently, this study serves as an independent test.' The comparison therefore has real falsifying content, independent of the simulations' tuning targets. The benchmark comes from Blanton et al. (2026), a paper with overlapping authorship, but it is an observational measurement, not an assertion imported as a theorem; self-citation of a measurement is not by itself circular. The acknowledged disagreement with Aird et al. (2019) and Birchall et al. (2023) - 'their results for quiescent galaxies qualitatively disagree with ours... the origin of these differences remains unclear' - is a serious robustness limitation on the central claim, but it is a data-quality/benchmark-choice concern rather than a circular reduction. The one genuinely circular-adjacent step is the combined EAGLE test: the observational radiative constraint is rescaled by EAGLE's own εf=0.15 before being combined with the radio constraint, while EAGLE's combined prediction uses the same factor, so the comparison is insensitive to the very coupling efficiency it claims to validate. The 'pass' is then asserted at Δlog10(λc)=1, a factor-ten ad hoc shift. Because this secondary conclusion is partly defined by the model's own parameter, the overall circularity score is elevated to 5, but not higher, since the main radiative-failure result is still an independent comparison with external shape content.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

4 free parameters · 6 axioms · 0 invented entities

No new physical entities are postulated. The free parameters are normalization shifts and model parameters used to build the comparisons, especially the EAGLE combined test and the modified TNG exploration. The key axioms are the correctness of the authors' own narrow-line benchmark and the model-specific conversions used to merge radiative and radio constraints.

free parameters (4)
  • Δlog10(λc) for EAGLE combined comparison = 1 (selected from {0,1,2})
    Chosen post hoc because Figure 7 shows near-perfect agreement at this value; not predicted a priori.
  • εf, EAGLE coupling efficiency = 0.15
    EAGLE model parameter used to rescale observed radiative Eddington ratios before summing with the radio constraint; the combined-test result depends on this adopted value.
  • Modified TNG parameters for quiescent galaxies θ_Q = χ0=0.08, M0=10^10.12 M⊙, β=2.00, χmax=0.001, Δlog10(λc)=−0.93
    Fitted by minimizing χ² between predicted and observed F_AGN(M⋆) for quiescent galaxies; this is an exploration, not a prediction.
  • Modified TNG parameters for star-forming galaxies θ_SF = χ0=0.09, M0=10^10.48 M⊙, β=1.95, χmax=0.0008, Δlog10(λc)=−0.89
    Fitted by minimizing χ² for star-forming galaxies; the fit still fails to reproduce the flat observed trend.
axioms (6)
  • domain assumption The narrow-line MaNGA F_AGN(M⋆,sSFR) measurement of Blanton et al. (2026) is the true intrinsic radiative AGN fraction.
    All comparisons use this as the benchmark, despite acknowledged qualitative disagreement with X-ray-based measurements for quiescent galaxies (Section 1, Section 5).
  • domain assumption The observed Eddington-ratio threshold λc=10^-3 corresponds to the simulation Eddington ratio defined through L_Bol=K ṀBH c².
    The paper introduces Δlog10(λc) shifts to handle normalization differences, so the correspondence is approximate and model-dependent (Section 3.1).
  • ad hoc to paper EAGLE's single-mode thermal feedback can be fairly tested by summing radiative and radio observational F_AGN constraints after scaling by εf=0.15.
    This is a model-specific construction with no independent evidence that εf applies directly to observed bolometric corrections (Section 4.3.1).
  • domain assumption Cavity jet power P_cav from radio observations measures the same 'coupled' AGN power as EAGLE's εf εr ṀBH c².
    Adopted to combine radiative and radio constraints; plausible but unverified (Section 4.3.1).
  • domain assumption Instantaneous ṀBH in simulations captures the relevant AGN activity timescale for observed narrow-line emission.
    The authors argue this is appropriate, but TNG100 is only tested with instantaneous values (Sections 3.2.4-3.2.6).
  • ad hoc to paper The modified TNG transition parameterization of Equation 10 is a valid family for exploring model changes.
    Used only for the exploration in Section 4.2; it is not derived from the underlying simulation physics.

pith-pipeline@v1.3.0-alltime-deepseek · 20053 in / 12429 out tokens · 106029 ms · 2026-08-01T12:15:01.360814+00:00 · methodology

0 comments
read the original abstract

We evaluate the radiative-mode active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback models of EAGLE, SIMBA, and TNG100 by comparing their predictions for the AGN-host galaxy relationship to new observational constraints. Owing to incomplete knowledge of the underlying physics, these models differ substantially, and it remains unclear whether any of them accurately reflect reality. In a previous study, based on the demographics of narrow line AGN, we constrained $F_{\mathrm{AGN}}$, the intrinsic fraction of galaxies hosting a radiative AGN with Eddington ratio $\lambda > 10^{-3}$, as a function of host stellar mass ($M_*$) and specific star formation rate (sSFR). Observationally, $F_{\mathrm{AGN}}$ declines strongly with $M_*$ for quiescent galaxies, while remaining approximately constant for star-forming systems. In this study, we find that none of the simulations reproduce these trends even qualitatively, indicating a mismatch between the simulated and observed radiative AGN populations. Additionally, since EAGLE does not explicitly distinguish between radio and radiative modes, we compare its predictions for $F_{\mathrm{AGN}}(M_*, \mathrm{sSFR})$ to our novel measurements of the combined radiative and radio mode AGN fractions. For EAGLE's constant coupling efficiency $\epsilon_{\mathrm{f}} = 0.15$, and for the adopted standard bolometric and jet-power conversion factors in the observations, the total AGN feedback energy in EAGLE is broadly consistent with observations, though with Eddington ratios a factor of 10 greater than is observed. More detailed comparisons of EAGLE's assumptions with observations are therefore required before drawing firm conclusions.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2607.19603 by Arjun Suresh, Michael R. Blanton.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Observed intrinsic AGN fraction (FAGN) as a function of M⋆ and sSFR. Here, FAGN represents the fraction of galaxies hosting a narrow-line AGN with an Eddington ratio λ > 10−3 . Data are derived from the MaNGA optical IFU catalog, adapted from Appendix A of Blanton et al. (2026). In this paper, we test predictions from the EAGLE, SIMBA, and TNG100 against these observed FAGN trends, as a means of evaluation… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Comparison of the EAGLE simulation’s predictions for FAGN(M⋆), including 1σ binomial uncertainties for both star-forming and quiescent galaxy populations, against the observational constraints shown in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Similar to [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Similar to [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: M˙ versus MBH for our TNG100 sample. The thick gray dashed line represents the default TNG100 transition curve, χ(MBH), while the thin gray solid line corresponds to log10(λc) = −3. The thick red dashed line indicates the modified transition curve for quiescent galaxies, χQ(MBH), with the associated thin red solid line representing log10(λ Q c ) = −4.23. Similarly, the thick blue dashed line shows the modi… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Predictions for FAGN(M⋆) under the modified models for quiescent and star-forming galaxies shown in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p016_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Comparison of the EAGLE simulation’s predictions for the combined radio and radiative FAGN(M⋆, sSF R) including 1σ binomial uncertainties with the observational constraints for the same. Red represents quiescent galaxies and blue represents star-forming galaxies. To account for potential differences in the normalization of λ between observations and simulations, we present three subplots corresponding to d… view at source ↗

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