REVIEW
TDCOSMO. XXVII. JWST-based Lens Models and H$_0$ Measurement of WFI2033, HE0435, and PG1115
Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Submitted 27 Aug 2026 · 104 references
Pith's verdict: Competent JWST lens models, but the H0 inference is conditional on an untested mass-sheet assumption and incomplete inputs.
T0 · AI review
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Referee report
The paper
The paper claims
Re-modeling three quadruply imaged quasars with JWST/NIRCam data, two of them blind, gives a combined H0 = 73.5+2.7−2.8 km/s/Mpc (with the internal mass sheet fixed at λ_int = 1), matching HST-based cosmography and cutting the scatter…
The reading
What carries the argument
The load-bearing quantity is the Fermat-potential difference Δτ_ij between image pairs, computed by forward modeling the NIRCam images with a power-law elliptical mass distribution (PEMD) plus shear, explicit galaxy-scale perturbers selected by their flexion shift, and a flexible source model; the measured time delays map Δτ_ij to the time-delay distance D_Δt = cΔt_ij/(λ_int(1−κ_ext)Δτ_ij), which in flat ΛCDM is inversely proportional to H0. The mass-sheet degeneracy enters as the single scaling factor λ_int, fixed to 1 here by the PEMD choice, while the external convergence κ_ext is sampled from priors built on simulated comparison fields. On the imaging side, the STARRED technique, an iterative point-spread-function reconstruction scheme, makes the JWST astrometry and extended ring structure usable, and a two-stage weighting — a BIC-based imaging weight times a kinematic weight matching the model-predicted aperture velocity dispersion to the NIRSpec measurement — selects among the systematic model variants that enter the final posterior.
Extended reading notes
Core claim
Within flat ΛCDM with a uniform prior on Ωm and the internal mass-sheet parameter held at λ_int = 1, the three JWST/NIRCam models yield H0 = 73.4+3.4−4.4 km/s/Mpc for WFI2033, 74.2±4.2 km/s/Mpc for HE0435, and 71.8+9.2−7.0 km/s/Mpc for PG1115, combining to H0 = 73.5+2.7−2.8 km/s/Mpc. This matches the HST-based combination of 73.6±2.6 but with markedly better mutual agreement among the systems, and the PG1115 and HE0435 analyses were performed blind. The paper further shows that the WFI2033 shift relative to HST-based modeling is driven by the JWST data pinning down a satellite near the deflector and by the earlier analysis' flexible image positions, not by cosmology. Each quoted value carries a factor of λ_int, so the numbers are conditional on the power-law mass-profile assumption until a free-λ_int hierarchical analysis of the full sample is completed.
Load-bearing premise
The load-bearing premise is that each lens's true mass profile is a single power-law ellipse, which fixes the internal mass-sheet parameter at λ_int = 1; if a real deflector's density profile departs from that form, every quoted H0 value is rescaled by the unknown factor λ_int.
Editorial extensions
If this is right
- JWST/NIRCam modeling reaches cosmographic precision even where quasar images are saturated, as in PG1115, validating the iterative PSF-reconstruction approach for the coming 16-target sample.
- The mutual agreement of the three systems improves relative to the HST-based analysis, so the combined constraint H0 = 73.5+2.7−2.8 km/s/Mpc is carried by consistent, independently measured systems rather than by one dominant lens.
- For WFI2033, matching the HST result requires allowing image position offsets up to 75 mas that never settle on a consistent source, locating that system's earlier offset in astrometric flexibility rather than in cosmology.
- The new models, kinematics, and external-convergence estimates become inputs to the forthcoming TDCOSMO-2026 hierarchical analysis in which λ_int is freed, converting these power-law-conditional numbers into cosmology-level statements.
- Approved Cycle-4 and Cycle-5 JWST programs add 16 NIRCam targets (11 with NIRSpec), with doubled exposure times and saturation-avoiding observing strategies, projected to push the sample toward percent-level precision on H0.
Reading between the lines
- If the tight mutual agreement among the three systems survives as the 16 forthcoming NIRCam targets are added, the systematic-scatter budget of time-delay cosmography becomes a measurable quantity; the present three systems cannot yet separate a genuine removal of systematics from good luck, as the paper itself acknowledges.
- Because every quoted value scales in proportion to λ_int through the mass-sheet correction, a free-λ_int population analysis will multiply or divide all three numbers by the same factor, and the interesting question is whether the inter-system agreement reported here is preserved under that global rescaling.
- The WFI2033 satellite, whose mass the HST data could not constrain but whose imprint NIRCam pins down, suggests a testable pattern: other quads with near-deflector satellites or close companions may show the same kind of HST-to-JWST shift in Fermat potential, and the Cycle-4/5 targets provide the sample to check it.
- PG1115's posterior is carved out by a single aperture-integrated kinematic number, and the paper's own appendix shows how directly the quoted values track the kinematic input; an independent measurement of that deflector's velocity dispersion is the sharpest single test of the 71.8 km/s/Mpc result.
Original abstract
Time-delay cosmography offers a one-step, distance-ladder-independent route to the Hubble-Lemaitre constant, H_0. We present new cosmography-grade lens models of three quadruply imaged quasars based on JWST-NIRCam/F115W imaging (WFI2033-4723, HE0435-1223, PG1115+080). We use the STARRED modeling technique, introduced in our previous analysis of WFI2033-4723, to reconstruct the complex JWST-NIRCam Point Spread Function at high fidelity. We combine NIRCam-based lens models with improved external convergence estimates, published time delays, and aperture-integrated stellar velocity dispersions from JWST NIRSpec to infer H_0. The analysis was carried out blindly for HE0435-1223 and PG1115+080, while it was not blind for WFI2033-4723, as we build upon the previous published model. For comparison with previous HST-based work, we limit our analysis to the case of no internal mass-sheet degeneracy ($\lambda_{\rm int}=1$). We quantify the impact of improved imaging, single-aperture kinematics, and environment measurements on central values and uncertainties. Within flat $\Lambda$CDM, assuming a uniform prior on $\Omega_{\rm m}$, we find H_0 = 71.8$_{-7.0}^{+9.2}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for PG1115+080, 74.2$_{-4.2}^{+4.2}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for HE0435-1223, and 73.4$_{-4.4}^{+3.4}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for WFI2033-4723. Combining the three lenses yields H_0 = 73.5$_{-2.8}^{+2.7}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, consistent with HST-based results (73.6$_{-2.6}^{+2.6}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$), but with reduced scatter between the three systems. These models will be incorporated in the TDCOSMO-2026 milestone paper with free $\lambda_{\rm int}$ in a hierarchical fashion. We close by outlining how 16 forthcoming JWST NIRCam targets will further tighten uncertainties toward percent-level precision on H_0.
The compiled record
The paper's own sentences, arranged, kept beside the review and separate from it. Each label is drawn from a closed vocabulary; the number beside it is the probability the classifier gave that label. Numbers in the tables are the authors', checked by code. No sentence in this record was written by a model.
The abstract, sentence by sentence
Time-delay cosmography offers a one-step, distance-ladder-independent route to the Hubble-Lemaitre constant, H_0. We present new cosmography-grade lens models of three quadruply imaged quasars based on JWST-NIRCam/F115W imaging (WFI2033-4723, HE0435-1223, PG1115+080). We use the STARRED modeling technique, introduced in our previous analysis of WFI2033-4723, to reconstruct the complex JWST-NIRCam Point Spread Function at high fidelity. We combine NIRCam-based lens models with improved external convergence estimates, published time delays, and aperture-integrated stellar velocity dispersions from JWST NIRSpec to infer H_0. The analysis was carried out blindly for HE0435-1223 and PG1115+080, while it was not blind for WFI2033-4723, as we build upon the previous published model. For comparison with previous HST-based work, we limit our analysis to the case of no internal mass-sheet degeneracy ($\lambda_{\rm int}=1$). We quantify the impact of improved imaging, single-aperture kinematics, and environment measurements on central values and uncertainties. Within flat $\Lambda$CDM, assuming a uniform prior on $\Omega_{\rm m}$, we find H_0 = 71.8$_{-7.0}^{+9.2}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for PG1115+080, 74.2$_{-4.2}^{+4.2}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for HE0435-1223, and 73.4$_{-4.4}^{+3.4}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for WFI2033-4723. Combining the three lenses yields H_0 = 73.5$_{-2.8}^{+2.7}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, consistent with HST-based results (73.6$_{-2.6}^{+2.6}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$), but with reduced scatter between the three systems. These models will be incorporated in the TDCOSMO-2026 milestone paper with free $\lambda_{\rm int}$ in a hierarchical fashion. We close by outlining how 16 forthcoming JWST NIRCam targets will further tighten uncertainties toward percent-level precision on H_0.
background contribution method result interpretation main claim
| # | sentence | role | the authors' own work | states the main conclusion | strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| s0 | Time-delay cosmography offers a one-step, distance-ladder-independent route to the Hubble-Lemaitre constant, H_0. | background 1.00 | 0.06 | 0.04 | asserted 1.00 |
| s1 | We present new cosmography-grade lens models of three quadruply imaged quasars based on JWST-NIRCam/F115W imaging (WFI2033-4723, HE0435-1223, PG1115+080). | contribution 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.05 | asserted 1.00 |
| s2 | We use the STARRED modeling technique, introduced in our previous analysis of WFI2033-4723, to reconstruct the complex JWST-NIRCam Point Spread Function at high fidelity. | method 0.99 | 0.82 | 0.02 | asserted 1.00 |
| s3 | We combine NIRCam-based lens models with improved external convergence estimates, published time delays, and aperture-integrated stellar velocity dispersions from JWST NIRSpec to infer H_0. | method 0.98 | 0.85 | 0.06 | asserted 1.00 |
| s4 | The analysis was carried out blindly for HE0435-1223 and PG1115+080, while it was not blind for WFI2033-4723, as we build upon the previous published model. | method 0.81 | 0.88 | 0.02 | asserted 1.00 |
| s5 | For comparison with previous HST-based work, we limit our analysis to the case of no internal mass-sheet degeneracy ($\lambda_{\rm int}=1$). | limitation 0.66 | 0.90 | 0.02 | asserted 0.98 |
| s6 | We quantify the impact of improved imaging, single-aperture kinematics, and environment measurements on central values and uncertainties. | contribution 0.67 | 0.93 | 0.03 | asserted 0.96 |
| s7 | Within flat $\Lambda$CDM, assuming a uniform prior on $\Omega_{\rm m}$, we find H_0 = 71.8$_{-7.0}^{+9.2}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for PG1115+080, 74.2$_{-4.2}^{+4.2}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for HE0435-1223, and 73.4$_{-4.4}^{+3.4}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for WFI2033-4723. | result 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.35 | asserted 1.00 |
| s8 | Combining the three lenses yields H_0 = 73.5$_{-2.8}^{+2.7}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, consistent with HST-based results (73.6$_{-2.6}^{+2.6}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$), but with reduced scatter between the three systems. | result 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.63 | asserted 0.70 |
| s9 | These models will be incorporated in the TDCOSMO-2026 milestone paper with free $\lambda_{\rm int}$ in a hierarchical fashion. | future work 0.99 | 0.32 | 0.04 | asserted 0.97 |
| s10 | We close by outlining how 16 forthcoming JWST NIRCam targets will further tighten uncertainties toward percent-level precision on H_0. | future work 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.03 | asserted 0.56 |
What was examined, and what was not
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Figures
Figures reproduced from arXiv:2608.27566 by the authors.
References
How the literature uses it
What this paper does with the arXiv papers it cites
What it cites · 16 sentences without a confident label
Builds on 1 paper
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We extend the analysis of [ref] from the Fermat-potential differences $Δτ$ to the full H$_0$ inference.
TDCOSMO: XX. WFI2033--4723, the First Quadruply-Imaged Quasar Modeled with JWST Imaging · Base theory and observables · 1.00
Uses the method or tool of 2 papers
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For a given set of nonlinear lens and light parameters, the model components are ray-traced and rendered in the image plane, convolved with the PSF, and compared to the data through a pixel-based imaging likelihood whose per-pixel variance combines the imaging noise (Poisson, readout, and flat-field terms) with a PSF error map – an empirical PSF-uncertainty term derived from field stars – that inflates the variance near the point sources explained further in Sec. 4 of [ref] .
TDCOSMO: XX. WFI2033--4723, the First Quadruply-Imaged Quasar Modeled with JWST Imaging · Forward modeling and likelihood sampling · 0.85
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As a reminder many things have changed between the two analyses: i) we used Lenstronomy [ref] instead of GLEE [ref] ; ii) we used JWST NIRCam imaging instead of HST/Keck-AO imaging; iii) we reconstructed the PSF using the STARRED and PSFr algorithms; iv) we used stellar velocity dispersion from JWST NIRSpec spectra, instead of ground based measurements; v) we used new estimates of the external convergence based on Euclid Flagship simulations instead of Millennium based ones.
The Halos of Satellite Galaxies: the Companion of the Massive Elliptical Lens SL2S J08544-0121 · Comparison with previous work · 0.80
Uses data or values from 2 papers
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The time delays and uncertainties used in this analysis, with naming conventions from Fig. 3 of [ref] , were $Δt_A2B = 37.3 ±2.8$ days (7.5% uncertainty), $Δt_A1B = 36.2 ±1.95$ days (5.4% uncertainty), and $Δt_CB = 59.4 ±1.3$ days (2.2% uncertainty).
TDCOSMO: XX. WFI2033--4723, the First Quadruply-Imaged Quasar Modeled with JWST Imaging · WFI2033 · 0.98
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Previously modeled for cosmography with Keck AO [ref] , the system's deflector is at $z_d = 0.3098$ with previous measurements of its background quasar at $z_s =1.722$ [ref] .
Redshifts of the Gravitational Lenses B1422+231 and PG1115+080 · PG1115 · 0.81
Cites as background 2 papers
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WFI 2033–4723 (J2000: $20^h33^m42.2^s$, $-47^∘23'44”$; hereafter WFI2033) was discovered by [ref] , and has since been modeled for cosmography with HST data [ref] and most recently JWST data [ref] .
TDCOSMO: XX. WFI2033--4723, the First Quadruply-Imaged Quasar Modeled with JWST Imaging · WFI2033 · 0.93
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Between this conflict (known as the “Hubble tension”), suggestions of dynamical dark energy from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) [ref] , $σ_8$ tension from cosmic shear measurements [ref] , and questions whether early or dynamical dark energy could solve this tension [ref] , the standard model appears challenged on multiple fronts [ref] .
2510.05483 · Introduction · 0.84
Discussion
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