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TDCOSMO. XXVII. JWST-based Lens Models and H$_0$ Measurement of WFI2033, HE0435, and PG1115

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Submitted 27 Aug 2026 · 104 references

Pith's verdict: Competent JWST lens models, but the H0 inference is conditional on an untested mass-sheet assumption and incomplete inputs.

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arXiv ID2608.27566 (version 1)
Pith IDMXT4VIHO, Pith's permanent record of this paper and its review
CitationA. Galan, A. J. Shajib, C. D. Fassnacht, D. M. Williams, D. P. Johnson, D. Sluse, F. Courbin, K. C. Wong, M. Cappellari, M. Stiavelli, P. Mozumdar, S. Birrer, S. Knabel, T. Morishita, T. Treu, V. Motta. "TDCOSMO. XXVII. JWST-based Lens Models and H$_0$ Measurement of WFI2033, HE0435, and PG1115." arXiv:2608.27566 (2026). https://pith.science/paper/MXT4VIHO
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The paper

The paper claims

Re-modeling three quadruply imaged quasars with JWST/NIRCam data, two of them blind, gives a combined H0 = 73.5+2.7−2.8 km/s/Mpc (with the internal mass sheet fixed at λ_int = 1), matching HST-based cosmography and cutting the scatter…

The reading

This paper aims to show that JWST-era data can carry time-delay cosmography to a sharper, cross-checked measurement of the Hubble constant: three quadruply imaged quasars, remodeled from NIRCam images with a high-fidelity treatment of the point-spread function, give per-system values of 73.4, 74.2, and 71.8 km/s/Mpc and a combined 73.5+2.7−2.8 km/s/Mpc within flat ΛCDM with λ_int = 1. The result matters because time-delay cosmography is an independent, distance-ladder-free route to H0 and hence a direct test of the Hubble tension. The key demonstration is consistency: the JWST values agree with the earlier HST-based combination of 73.6±2.6 while the three systems now agree with one another far better, and two of the three analyses were blinded. The paper also traces the earlier WFI2033 discrepancy to astrometry, showing that the HST result can be reproduced only by allowing image positions that never converge to a consistent source.

What carries the argument

The load-bearing quantity is the Fermat-potential difference Δτ_ij between image pairs, computed by forward modeling the NIRCam images with a power-law elliptical mass distribution (PEMD) plus shear, explicit galaxy-scale perturbers selected by their flexion shift, and a flexible source model; the measured time delays map Δτ_ij to the time-delay distance D_Δt = cΔt_ij/(λ_int(1−κ_ext)Δτ_ij), which in flat ΛCDM is inversely proportional to H0. The mass-sheet degeneracy enters as the single scaling factor λ_int, fixed to 1 here by the PEMD choice, while the external convergence κ_ext is sampled from priors built on simulated comparison fields. On the imaging side, the STARRED technique, an iterative point-spread-function reconstruction scheme, makes the JWST astrometry and extended ring structure usable, and a two-stage weighting — a BIC-based imaging weight times a kinematic weight matching the model-predicted aperture velocity dispersion to the NIRSpec measurement — selects among the systematic model variants that enter the final posterior.

Extended reading notes

Core claim

Within flat ΛCDM with a uniform prior on Ωm and the internal mass-sheet parameter held at λ_int = 1, the three JWST/NIRCam models yield H0 = 73.4+3.4−4.4 km/s/Mpc for WFI2033, 74.2±4.2 km/s/Mpc for HE0435, and 71.8+9.2−7.0 km/s/Mpc for PG1115, combining to H0 = 73.5+2.7−2.8 km/s/Mpc. This matches the HST-based combination of 73.6±2.6 but with markedly better mutual agreement among the systems, and the PG1115 and HE0435 analyses were performed blind. The paper further shows that the WFI2033 shift relative to HST-based modeling is driven by the JWST data pinning down a satellite near the deflector and by the earlier analysis' flexible image positions, not by cosmology. Each quoted value carries a factor of λ_int, so the numbers are conditional on the power-law mass-profile assumption until a free-λ_int hierarchical analysis of the full sample is completed.

Load-bearing premise

The load-bearing premise is that each lens's true mass profile is a single power-law ellipse, which fixes the internal mass-sheet parameter at λ_int = 1; if a real deflector's density profile departs from that form, every quoted H0 value is rescaled by the unknown factor λ_int.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • JWST/NIRCam modeling reaches cosmographic precision even where quasar images are saturated, as in PG1115, validating the iterative PSF-reconstruction approach for the coming 16-target sample.
  • The mutual agreement of the three systems improves relative to the HST-based analysis, so the combined constraint H0 = 73.5+2.7−2.8 km/s/Mpc is carried by consistent, independently measured systems rather than by one dominant lens.
  • For WFI2033, matching the HST result requires allowing image position offsets up to 75 mas that never settle on a consistent source, locating that system's earlier offset in astrometric flexibility rather than in cosmology.
  • The new models, kinematics, and external-convergence estimates become inputs to the forthcoming TDCOSMO-2026 hierarchical analysis in which λ_int is freed, converting these power-law-conditional numbers into cosmology-level statements.
  • Approved Cycle-4 and Cycle-5 JWST programs add 16 NIRCam targets (11 with NIRSpec), with doubled exposure times and saturation-avoiding observing strategies, projected to push the sample toward percent-level precision on H0.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the tight mutual agreement among the three systems survives as the 16 forthcoming NIRCam targets are added, the systematic-scatter budget of time-delay cosmography becomes a measurable quantity; the present three systems cannot yet separate a genuine removal of systematics from good luck, as the paper itself acknowledges.
  • Because every quoted value scales in proportion to λ_int through the mass-sheet correction, a free-λ_int population analysis will multiply or divide all three numbers by the same factor, and the interesting question is whether the inter-system agreement reported here is preserved under that global rescaling.
  • The WFI2033 satellite, whose mass the HST data could not constrain but whose imprint NIRCam pins down, suggests a testable pattern: other quads with near-deflector satellites or close companions may show the same kind of HST-to-JWST shift in Fermat potential, and the Cycle-4/5 targets provide the sample to check it.
  • PG1115's posterior is carved out by a single aperture-integrated kinematic number, and the paper's own appendix shows how directly the quoted values track the kinematic input; an independent measurement of that deflector's velocity dispersion is the sharpest single test of the 71.8 km/s/Mpc result.
Original abstract

Time-delay cosmography offers a one-step, distance-ladder-independent route to the Hubble-Lemaitre constant, H_0. We present new cosmography-grade lens models of three quadruply imaged quasars based on JWST-NIRCam/F115W imaging (WFI2033-4723, HE0435-1223, PG1115+080). We use the STARRED modeling technique, introduced in our previous analysis of WFI2033-4723, to reconstruct the complex JWST-NIRCam Point Spread Function at high fidelity. We combine NIRCam-based lens models with improved external convergence estimates, published time delays, and aperture-integrated stellar velocity dispersions from JWST NIRSpec to infer H_0. The analysis was carried out blindly for HE0435-1223 and PG1115+080, while it was not blind for WFI2033-4723, as we build upon the previous published model. For comparison with previous HST-based work, we limit our analysis to the case of no internal mass-sheet degeneracy ($\lambda_{\rm int}=1$). We quantify the impact of improved imaging, single-aperture kinematics, and environment measurements on central values and uncertainties. Within flat $\Lambda$CDM, assuming a uniform prior on $\Omega_{\rm m}$, we find H_0 = 71.8$_{-7.0}^{+9.2}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for PG1115+080, 74.2$_{-4.2}^{+4.2}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for HE0435-1223, and 73.4$_{-4.4}^{+3.4}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for WFI2033-4723. Combining the three lenses yields H_0 = 73.5$_{-2.8}^{+2.7}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, consistent with HST-based results (73.6$_{-2.6}^{+2.6}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$), but with reduced scatter between the three systems. These models will be incorporated in the TDCOSMO-2026 milestone paper with free $\lambda_{\rm int}$ in a hierarchical fashion. We close by outlining how 16 forthcoming JWST NIRCam targets will further tighten uncertainties toward percent-level precision on H_0.

The compiled record

The paper's own sentences, arranged, kept beside the review and separate from it. Each label is drawn from a closed vocabulary; the number beside it is the probability the classifier gave that label. Numbers in the tables are the authors', checked by code. No sentence in this record was written by a model.

Compiled by classifier-1.13.0 via TypeSafe API, question bank abstract-p1-20260923, 2026-09-23: 1 request, 9,086 input tokens.

What the abstract itself states, as probabilities: claims first 0.05 · states limitation 0.94 · human participants 0.02 · controlled comparison 0.34 · randomized assignment 0.03 · states quantitative result 0.99 · compares with prior results 0.98 · mentions code or data availability 0.04.

The abstract, sentence by sentence

arXiv listing abstract v1. Results and the main claim are underlined; .

Time-delay cosmography offers a one-step, distance-ladder-independent route to the Hubble-Lemaitre constant, H_0. We present new cosmography-grade lens models of three quadruply imaged quasars based on JWST-NIRCam/F115W imaging (WFI2033-4723, HE0435-1223, PG1115+080). We use the STARRED modeling technique, introduced in our previous analysis of WFI2033-4723, to reconstruct the complex JWST-NIRCam Point Spread Function at high fidelity. We combine NIRCam-based lens models with improved external convergence estimates, published time delays, and aperture-integrated stellar velocity dispersions from JWST NIRSpec to infer H_0. The analysis was carried out blindly for HE0435-1223 and PG1115+080, while it was not blind for WFI2033-4723, as we build upon the previous published model. For comparison with previous HST-based work, we limit our analysis to the case of no internal mass-sheet degeneracy ($\lambda_{\rm int}=1$). We quantify the impact of improved imaging, single-aperture kinematics, and environment measurements on central values and uncertainties. Within flat $\Lambda$CDM, assuming a uniform prior on $\Omega_{\rm m}$, we find H_0 = 71.8$_{-7.0}^{+9.2}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for PG1115+080, 74.2$_{-4.2}^{+4.2}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for HE0435-1223, and 73.4$_{-4.4}^{+3.4}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for WFI2033-4723. Combining the three lenses yields H_0 = 73.5$_{-2.8}^{+2.7}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, consistent with HST-based results (73.6$_{-2.6}^{+2.6}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$), but with reduced scatter between the three systems. These models will be incorporated in the TDCOSMO-2026 milestone paper with free $\lambda_{\rm int}$ in a hierarchical fashion. We close by outlining how 16 forthcoming JWST NIRCam targets will further tighten uncertainties toward percent-level precision on H_0.

background contribution method result interpretation main claim

What the classifier reports for each sentence. The number is the probability it gave the label.
#sentencerolethe authors' own workstates the main conclusionstrength
s0 Time-delay cosmography offers a one-step, distance-ladder-independent route to the Hubble-Lemaitre constant, H_0. background 1.00 0.06 0.04 asserted 1.00
s1 We present new cosmography-grade lens models of three quadruply imaged quasars based on JWST-NIRCam/F115W imaging (WFI2033-4723, HE0435-1223, PG1115+080). contribution 1.00 0.96 0.05 asserted 1.00
s2 We use the STARRED modeling technique, introduced in our previous analysis of WFI2033-4723, to reconstruct the complex JWST-NIRCam Point Spread Function at high fidelity. method 0.99 0.82 0.02 asserted 1.00
s3 We combine NIRCam-based lens models with improved external convergence estimates, published time delays, and aperture-integrated stellar velocity dispersions from JWST NIRSpec to infer H_0. method 0.98 0.85 0.06 asserted 1.00
s4 The analysis was carried out blindly for HE0435-1223 and PG1115+080, while it was not blind for WFI2033-4723, as we build upon the previous published model. method 0.81 0.88 0.02 asserted 1.00
s5 For comparison with previous HST-based work, we limit our analysis to the case of no internal mass-sheet degeneracy ($\lambda_{\rm int}=1$). limitation 0.66 0.90 0.02 asserted 0.98
s6 We quantify the impact of improved imaging, single-aperture kinematics, and environment measurements on central values and uncertainties. contribution 0.67 0.93 0.03 asserted 0.96
s7 Within flat $\Lambda$CDM, assuming a uniform prior on $\Omega_{\rm m}$, we find H_0 = 71.8$_{-7.0}^{+9.2}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for PG1115+080, 74.2$_{-4.2}^{+4.2}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for HE0435-1223, and 73.4$_{-4.4}^{+3.4}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for WFI2033-4723. result 1.00 0.97 0.35 asserted 1.00
s8 Combining the three lenses yields H_0 = 73.5$_{-2.8}^{+2.7}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, consistent with HST-based results (73.6$_{-2.6}^{+2.6}$ $\lambda_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$), but with reduced scatter between the three systems. result 0.98 0.93 0.63 asserted 0.70
s9 These models will be incorporated in the TDCOSMO-2026 milestone paper with free $\lambda_{\rm int}$ in a hierarchical fashion. future work 0.99 0.32 0.04 asserted 0.97
s10 We close by outlining how 16 forthcoming JWST NIRCam targets will further tighten uncertainties toward percent-level precision on H_0. future work 1.00 0.30 0.03 asserted 0.56

What kind of paper the classifier reports this is: empirical study 1.00 · evidence from analysis of existing data 0.60.

What was examined, and what was not

sources read
  • arXiv listing abstract v1
not examined
  • full text
  • figures and tables
  • references and citing sentences
  • relations to other papers
levels run
  • P abstract
not run
  • S sections
  • T body sentences
  • C citations
  • R cross-paper relations

Every quoted sentence on this record is the authors'. Every label is from Pith's closed vocabulary, with the probability shown beside it. Every number in the measurements table is the authors', checked by code. Record as JSON

Figures
Figure 1. JWST NIRCam color images of WFI2033, HE0435, and PG1115 (GTO Program #1198; PI: Stiavelli), the three systems modeled
Figure 2. Environment of HE0435−1223. Black labels denote the main deflector (D) and the five galaxy perturbers (G1-G5) along with their redshifts. The quasar images are labeled in blue. B. HE0435 HE 0435–1223 (J2000: 04h38m14.9 s , −12◦17′15′′; here￾after HE0435) was discovered by Wisotzki et al. 67. This sys￾tem has been modeled for cosmography with data from HST [44] and adaptive optics (AO) on the Keck Telescope [33]. The deflector is at a redshift of zd = 0.4546 [68], while the background quasar is at zs = 1.693 [65]. The system is in a galaxy group with at least ∼12 confirmed members…
Figure 3. Environment of PG1115. Black labels denote the main
Figure 4. Example HE0435−1223 fit results from the best performing model (
Figure 5. Same as Fig. 4, but the best model for PG1115
Figure 6. Comparison of our JWST-based H0 results with previous HST-based power-law results [97, TDCOSMO I]. Top row: per-system median, 16–84% credible intervals, and posterior distribution functions for the previous HST-based models (gray pdfs) and this work (colored histograms). Second row: the corresponding H0 HST-based posteriors for each system from TDCOSMO I, with results shown as Gaussian approximations to its quoted median and 16/84% uncertainties and the black curve giving the combined constraint (the product of the individual posteriors). Third row: same as the second row, but…
Figure 7. Comparison of the shift in the time-delay distance from changing modeling choices for the fiducial WFI2033 model. The bottom axis
Figure 8. WFI2033 model results, with model weights at the top. First is the total model weight
Figure 9. WFI2033 parameter distributions, with unweighted samples shown in pink and the final weighted selection shown in green. The
Figure 10. Same as Fig. 8 but for HE0435
Figure 11. Same as Fig. 9 but for HE0435
Figure 12. Same as Fig. 8 but for PG1115. We note a wide range of velocity dispersion predictions along with the time-delay distance, due to
Figure 13. Same as Fig. 9 but for PG1115
Figure 14. Comparison between the initial PSFs generated from stars in the field of WFI2033 and the final, iterated PSFs from the best model
Figure 15. Same as Fig. 11, except comparing HE0435 models using an initial STARRED PSF (in green) vs PSFr PSF (yellow).
Figure 16. Same as Fig. 15 but for PG1115. We note model weighting here was dominated by predicted velocity dispersions, which leads to
Figure 17. Same as Fig. 11, except comparing WFI2033 models by model complexity, with the least complex (maximum shapelet order
Figure 18. Same as Fig. 17, except for HE0435 models. Discrepancies are noticeable in the same parameters, but once again remaining
Figure 19. Same as Fig. 6; however, these results use the original unblinded values, obtained before a bug was identified in auxiliary data not

Figures reproduced from arXiv:2608.27566 by the authors.

References
How the literature uses it

What this paper does with the arXiv papers it cites

Each citing sentence is taken from the citing paper's LaTeX source and typed by Pith's classifier. A label appears at probability 0.8 or more (0.95 for support), a contest at 0.7 or more; the quoted words are the citing authors'. How each label was checked · JSON

What it cites · 16 sentences without a confident label

Builds on 1 paper
Uses the method or tool of 2 papers
  • For a given set of nonlinear lens and light parameters, the model components are ray-traced and rendered in the image plane, convolved with the PSF, and compared to the data through a pixel-based imaging likelihood whose per-pixel variance combines the imaging noise (Poisson, readout, and flat-field terms) with a PSF error map – an empirical PSF-uncertainty term derived from field stars – that inflates the variance near the point sources explained further in Sec. 4 of [ref] .

    TDCOSMO: XX. WFI2033--4723, the First Quadruply-Imaged Quasar Modeled with JWST Imaging · Forward modeling and likelihood sampling · 0.85

  • As a reminder many things have changed between the two analyses: i) we used Lenstronomy [ref] instead of GLEE [ref] ; ii) we used JWST NIRCam imaging instead of HST/Keck-AO imaging; iii) we reconstructed the PSF using the STARRED and PSFr algorithms; iv) we used stellar velocity dispersion from JWST NIRSpec spectra, instead of ground based measurements; v) we used new estimates of the external convergence based on Euclid Flagship simulations instead of Millennium based ones.

    The Halos of Satellite Galaxies: the Companion of the Massive Elliptical Lens SL2S J08544-0121 · Comparison with previous work · 0.80

Uses data or values from 2 papers
Cites as background 2 papers
  • WFI 2033–4723 (J2000: $20^h33^m42.2^s$, $-47^∘23'44”$; hereafter WFI2033) was discovered by [ref] , and has since been modeled for cosmography with HST data [ref] and most recently JWST data [ref] .

    TDCOSMO: XX. WFI2033--4723, the First Quadruply-Imaged Quasar Modeled with JWST Imaging · WFI2033 · 0.93

  • Between this conflict (known as the “Hubble tension”), suggestions of dynamical dark energy from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) [ref] , $σ_8$ tension from cosmic shear measurements [ref] , and questions whether early or dynamical dark energy could solve this tension [ref] , the standard model appears challenged on multiple fronts [ref] .

    2510.05483 · Introduction · 0.84

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