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Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks for Time Series: Bridging Predictive Power and Interpretability

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arxiv 2406.02496 v1 pith:2LJIX3LV submitted 2024-06-04 cs.LG cs.AI

classification cs.LGcs.AI
keywords timeseriespredictiveforecastinginterpretabilitykolmogorov-arnoldmt-kant-kan
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal
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Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) is a groundbreaking model recently proposed by the MIT team, representing a revolutionary approach with the potential to be a game-changer in the field. This innovative concept has rapidly garnered worldwide interest within the AI community. Inspired by the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem, KAN utilizes spline-parametrized univariate functions in place of traditional linear weights, enabling them to dynamically learn activation patterns and significantly enhancing interpretability. In this paper, we explore the application of KAN to time series forecasting and propose two variants: T-KAN and MT-KAN. T-KAN is designed to detect concept drift within time series and can explain the nonlinear relationships between predictions and previous time steps through symbolic regression, making it highly interpretable in dynamically changing environments. MT-KAN, on the other hand, improves predictive performance by effectively uncovering and leveraging the complex relationships among variables in multivariate time series. Experiments validate the effectiveness of these approaches, demonstrating that T-KAN and MT-KAN significantly outperform traditional methods in time series forecasting tasks, not only enhancing predictive accuracy but also improving model interpretability. This research opens new avenues for adaptive forecasting models, highlighting the potential of KAN as a powerful and interpretable tool in predictive analytics.

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Cited by 13 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score.

  1. Gated QKAN-FWP: Scalable Quantum-inspired Sequence Learning

    cs.LG 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 7.0 of 10

    Gated QKAN-FWP combines fast weight programming with quantum-inspired Kolmogorov-Arnold networks via single-qubit DARUAN activations and gated updates to deliver a 12.5k-parameter model that outperforms larger classic...

  2. SCOPE and SCION: A Benchmark and an Auditable Reference Pipeline for Schema Induction and Fusion from Text

    cs.AI 2026-05 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    A 24-dataset benchmark for inducing schema graphs from raw text, plus an auditable LLM-based pipeline that reports the highest scores on the benchmark's four schema-similarity metrics.

  3. Temporal Functional Circuits: From Spline Plots to Faithful Explanations in KAN Forecasting

    cs.LG 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 6.0 of 10

    A gated residual KAN framework called Temporal Functional Circuits maps edge functions to input lags, ranks them by activation, and validates faithfulness via interventions showing that learned B-splines add predictiv...

  4. A Kolmogorov-Arnold Surrogate Model for Chemical Equilibria: Application to Solid Solutions

    cs.LG 2026-03 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Kolmogorov-Arnold networks trained on GEM-Selektor output accurately approximate chemical equilibria for cement and radium-sulfate solid-solution systems, outperforming MLPs on the cement benchmark and cutting evaluat...

  5. Complementary Matrix-Gated QKAN Fast-Weight Programmers for Quantum Dynamics Forecasting

    quant-ph 2026-07 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    Complementary Matrix Gating gives QKAN fast-weight programmers coordinate-wise retain/write control and cuts multi-step quantum-dynamics forecast MSE by at least 91.2% versus scalar gates.

  6. Pretrained Time-Series Foundation Models for Financial Return Forecasting

    q-fin.MF 2026-06 accept novelty 5.0 of 10

    Pretrained TSFMs achieve top ranks on equity return tasks but show sparse, minimal improvements over random walk, serving as practical priors without reliable alpha generation.

  7. KAN Text to Vision? The Exploration of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks for Multi-Scale Sequence-Based Pose Animation from Sign Language Notation

    cs.CV 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 5.0 of 10

    KANMultiSign generates sign language poses from notation via coarse-to-fine multi-scale supervision and compact KAN-Transformer modules, achieving lower DTW joint error with fewer parameters than baselines on several ...

  8. On the Rate of Convergence of Kolmogorov-Arnold Network Regression Estimators

    cs.LG 2025-09 reject novelty 5.0 of 10

    The paper claims spline-parameterized KAN least-squares estimators achieve the minimax univariate regression rate O(n^{-2r/(2r+1)}) for additive and multiplicative KAN structures, independent of dimension.

  9. Quantum Variational Activation Functions Empower Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

    quant-ph 2025-09 reject novelty 5.0 of 10

    QKANs show strong empirical performance on regression, vision, and language tasks, but the claimed exponential parameter reduction is not rigorously established.

  10. Automated Modeling Method for Pathloss Model Discovery

    cs.LG 2025-05 unverdicted novelty 5.0 of 10

    Automated methods based on Deep Symbolic Regression and Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks discover compact, interpretable path loss models that achieve high accuracy and reduce prediction errors by up to 75% compared to trad...

  11. STKAN: Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

    cs.LG 2026-07 conditional novelty 4.0 of 10

    STKAN inserts Taylor-polynomial KAN token mixers into spatial and temporal mixing blocks and achieves small but consistent gains over strong baselines on three traffic-flow benchmarks and a tie on a fourth.

  12. SechKAN: Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks with Hyperbolic Secant Functions

    cs.LG 2026-06 conditional novelty 4.0 of 10

    SechKAN combines sech basis functions with a 1D linear projection to build a KAN-style model whose parameter count matches MLPs and which is competitive or better than several KAN variants on tested benchmarks.

  13. A Practitioner's Guide to Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

    cs.LG 2025-10 accept novelty 3.0 of 10

    A systematic review of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks that maps their relation to Kolmogorov superposition theory, MLPs, and kernels, examines basis-function design choices, summarizes performance advances, and supplies a...

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