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We present a theory for Casimir--Polder forces acting on greenhouse gas molecules dissolved in a thin water film. Such a nanosized film has recently been predicted to arise on th surface of melting ice as stabilized by repulsive Lifshitz forces. We show that different models for the effective polarizability of greenhouse gas molecules in water lead to different predictions for how Casimir--Polder forces influence the extraction of CH$_4$ and CO$_2$ molecules from the melting ice surface. In the most intricate model of a finite-sized molecule inside a cavity, dispersion potentials push the methane molecules towards the ice surface whereas the carbon dioxide typically will be attracted towards the closest interface (ice or air). Previous models for effective polarizability had suggested that CO$_2$ would also be pushed towards the ice surface. Release of greenhouse gas molecules from the surface of melting ice can potentially influence climate greenhouse effects.