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arxiv 1912.09002 v3 pith:7POB7BPM submitted 2019-12-19 math.ST econ.EMstat.MLstat.TH

Regularized Estimation of High-Dimensional Vector AutoRegressions with Weakly Dependent Innovations

classification math.ST econ.EMstat.MLstat.TH
keywords sequencesweaklyautoregressionsconditionconditionaldependentestimationhigh-dimensional
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There has been considerable advance in understanding the properties of sparse regularization procedures in high-dimensional models. In time series context, it is mostly restricted to Gaussian autoregressions or mixing sequences. We study oracle properties of LASSO estimation of weakly sparse vector-autoregressive models with heavy tailed, weakly dependent innovations with virtually no assumption on the conditional heteroskedasticity. In contrast to current literature, our innovation process satisfy an $L^1$ mixingale type condition on the centered conditional covariance matrices. This condition covers $L^1$-NED sequences and strong ($\alpha$-) mixing sequences as particular examples.

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