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Bayesian inference of $W$-boson mass

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arxiv 2301.09557 v2 pith:ADXPEBM7 submitted 2023-01-23 hep-ex hep-phphysics.data-an

classification hep-exhep-phphysics.data-an
keywords massmodelbosondatasetsdiscrepancystandardbayesiandifferent
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

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abstract

We use a Bayesian regression technique (similar to a recent analysis by Rinaldi et al) to obtain a central estimate for the $W$-boson mass using four different combinations of datasets compiled by the PDG including the 2022 CDF result. We use three different priors on the unknown intrinsic scatter and also a non-parametric hierarchical Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture model to obtain a world average for $W$-boson mass. We also evaluate the statistical significance of the discrepancy with respect to the Standard model for each of the datasets. We find that for all the combination of datasets and the aformentioned prior choices, the discrepancy with respect to the Standard Model value for the $W$-mass is less than 3$\sigma$. We also checked that if we use a narrow prior on the intrinsic scatter, we get a discrepancy of about 3.8$\sigma$ compared to the Standard model value.

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  1. Implementing Errors on Errors: Bayesian vs Frequentist

    hep-ph 2025-05 conditional novelty 4.0 of 10

    D'Agostini's Bayesian gamma prior and Cowan's frequentist gamma variance model are the same gamma law under the parameter map k = lambda = (n-1)/2 = 1/(4 epsilon^2).

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