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arxiv 2508.06892 v1 pith:AYXSAC72 submitted 2025-08-09 astro-ph.SR physics.space-ph

Large Model Driven Solar Activity AI Forecaster: A Scalable Dual Data-Model Framework

classification astro-ph.SR physics.space-ph
keywords solarforecastingactivityhumanparadigmspaceweatheraccuracy
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
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Solar activity drives space weather, affecting Earth's magnetosphere and technological infrastructure, which makes accurate solar flare forecasting critical. Current space weather models under-utilize multi-modal solar data, lack iterative enhancement via expert knowledge, and rely heavily on human forecasters under the Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action (OODA) paradigm. Here we present the "Solar Activity AI Forecaster", a scalable dual data-model driven framework built on foundational models, integrating expert knowledge to autonomously replicate human forecasting tasks with quantifiable outputs. It is implemented in the OODA paradigm and comprises three modules: a Situational Perception Module that generates daily solar situation awareness maps by integrating multi-modal observations; In-Depth Analysis Tools that characterize key solar features (active regions, coronal holes, filaments); and a Flare Prediction Module that forecasts strong flares for the full solar disk and active regions. Executed within a few minutes, the model outperforms or matches human forecasters in generalization across multi-source data, forecast accuracy, and operational efficiency. This work establishes a new paradigm for AI-based space weather forecasting, demonstrating AI's potential to enhance forecast accuracy and efficiency, and paving the way for autonomous operational forecasting systems.

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