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Mining a Decade of Event Impacts on Contributor Dynamics in Ethereum: A Longitudinal Study
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We analyze developer activity across 10 major Ethereum repositories (totaling 129884 commits, 40550 issues) spanning 10 years to examine how events such as technical upgrades, market events, and community decisions impact development. Through statistical, survival, and network analyses, we find that technical events prompt increased activity before the event, followed by reduced commit rates afterwards, whereas market events lead to more reactive development. Core infrastructure repositories like Go-Ethereum exhibit faster issue resolution compared to developer tools, and technical events enhance core team collaboration. Our findings show how different types of events shape development dynamics, offering insights for project managers and developers in maintaining development momentum through major transitions. This work contributes to understanding the resilience of development communities and their adaptation to ecosystem changes.
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Do Cryptocurrency Markets Differentiate Infrastructure from Regulatory Shocks? A Multi-Moment Event Study with Dependence-Robust Inference
In 15 negative crypto events (2019–2025), cumulative abnormal returns are statistically indistinguishable between infrastructure failures (−7.6%) and regulatory enforcement (−11.1%), difference +3.6 pp, p=0.81 under e...
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