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arxiv 2508.21131 v1 pith:DOYUYEXD submitted 2025-08-28 astro-ph.CO astro-ph.HEgr-qc

Cosmic Variance in Anisotropy Searches at Pulsar Timing Arrays

classification astro-ph.CO astro-ph.HEgr-qc
keywords anisotropiesastrophysicalconsistentcosmiccosmologicaldemonstrategravitationalgwbs
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
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Recent pulsar timing array (PTA) analyses show evidence for a gravitational wave background (GWB) with angular correlations consistent with the Hellings-Downs curve. Anisotropies are a key discriminator of the origin of this GWB, as they are expected to be at 1--20\% for astrophysical sources, but suppressed for cosmological GWBs. However, contrary to gravitational wave detectors at higher frequencies, PTAs only take a few independent measurements of a GWB and consequently are highly sensitive to cosmic variance, which induces apparent anisotropies in individual realizations of an isotropic GWB. We demonstrate explicitly that statistical inference nevertheless remains robust, i.e., measurements are consistent with the underlying assumption of isotropy. This confirms that searches for anisotropies will be able to robustly discriminate astrophysical from cosmological GWBs. En route, we demonstrate that the maximum multipole constrained by a PTA dataset scales linearly with the number of pulsars $\ell_{\rm max} \sim N_p$.

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Cited by 5 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score.

  1. Population statistics of nanohertz gravitational wave sources

    astro-ph.HE 2026-07 conditional novelty 6.0

    A hierarchical Bayesian inference framework combining free-spectrum reconstruction with population-level likelihoods distinguishes finite SMBHB populations from Gaussian primordial GWB using mock PTA data.

  2. Detecting Gravitational-Wave Anisotropies with Simulation-Based Inference

    astro-ph.CO 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    A neural-network-based simulation inference method improves 3σ detection probability of gravitational-wave background anisotropies by 90-200% over Gaussian frequentist searches by learning non-Gaussian structure in pu...

  3. Are PTA measurements sensitive to gravitational wave non-Gaussianities?

    astro-ph.CO 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    PTA statistical tests lose sensitivity to non-Gaussian GW features after decorrelation and cannot distinguish them model-agnostically.

  4. Are PTA measurements sensitive to gravitational wave non-Gaussianities?

    astro-ph.CO 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    PTA statistical tests cannot distinguish Gaussian and non-Gaussian GWB amplitude distributions in a model-agnostic way after decorrelation.

  5. The Heavy Tailed Non-Gaussianity of the Supermassive Black Hole Gravitational Wave Background

    astro-ph.CO 2026-04 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    The gravitational wave background from supermassive black hole binaries has a universal heavy-tailed amplitude distribution with power-law index -4, causing divergent higher moments and dominance of the strongest sign...