Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

As of 7 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 44 of 44 outbound references and 9 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2508.03474.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2508.03474 v1

Coverage vector

measured 44 of 44 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:45.228969Z

measured 53 of 53 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00

measured 9 of 9 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-01T00:26:30.922720Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-05-15T07:39:50.274829Z

Reference resolution

44 of 44 outbound references displayed

verified exact4
verified fuzzy33
unresolved7
parse uncertain0
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External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation 0cc2d445-219c-43b6-aa6a-46039e648499 · outbound

This paper cites https://huggingface.co/Linq-AI-Research/Linq-Embed-Mistral.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets https://huggingface.co/Linq-AI-Research/Linq-Embed-Mistral

Reference 1

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:53.596650Z

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Observation fa1461a8-7d39-4caf-8294-e9ce5143a3c6 · outbound

This paper cites https://huggingface.co/spaces/mteb/leaderboard.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets https://huggingface.co/spaces/mteb/leaderboard

Reference 2

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:53.455132Z

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Observation 5c65fa80-892a-414d-8c6a-a64db4ce0ef2 · outbound

This paper cites URL: https://www.alchemy.com/chain-connect/endpoints/public-node-polygon-pos.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets URL: https://www.alchemy.com/chain-connect/endpoints/public-node-polygon-pos

Reference 3

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Observation 6fd343a2-41a2-4069-8983-c247f42f6b4d · outbound

This paper cites https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B, 2025.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B, 2025

Reference 4

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Observation 9a30185d-2073-46fb-b7e3-10b00763cfe4 · outbound

This paper cites Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners , volume 30.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners , volume 30

Reference 5

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:52.984479Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation 17fd9416-7dd8-4593-9dea-8d9910a71d87 · outbound

This paper cites Flash boys 2.0: Frontrunning in decentralized exchanges, miner extractable value, and consensus instability.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Flash boys 2.0: Frontrunning in decentralized exchanges, miner extractable value, and consensus instability

Reference 6

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:52.803476Z

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Observation 19df4469-b78f-4ec4-af14-b02d6b78151c · outbound

This paper cites SoK: Attacks on DAOs.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets SoK: Attacks on DAOs

Reference 7

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Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation 556e5470-28e5-4e16-b245-a38b87d7a17c · outbound

This paper cites Rolling in the shadows: Analyzing the extraction of mev across layer-2 rollups.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Rolling in the shadows: Analyzing the extraction of mev across layer-2 rollups

Reference 8

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:52.602280Z

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Observation 6d272e08-14c6-4fa9-a8df-43d76a3bc12f · outbound

This paper cites Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets

Reference 9

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:52.281806Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation 65bb0b62-9588-4be7-89a6-3bbaaabff36f · outbound

This paper cites Ai in the gray: Exploring moderation policies in dialogic large language models vs.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Ai in the gray: Exploring moderation policies in dialogic large language models vs

Reference 10

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Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation 63d09b3f-8cd2-4e01-af13-8d85ecf4a811 · outbound

This paper cites Conditional Tokens Documentation.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Conditional Tokens Documentation

Reference 11

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Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation c3fd8469-5f94-4856-a86d-458ce448e524 · outbound

This paper cites DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning

Reference 12

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Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation c42ea593-3dd1-46af-b255-55e61830b785 · outbound

This paper cites The policy analysis market (and futuremap) archive, 2003.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets The policy analysis market (and futuremap) archive, 2003

Reference 13

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:51.743959Z

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Observation 0a5ec754-725f-4f82-aacb-6ae5bd879fff · outbound

This paper cites Ethereum's proposer-builder separation: Promises and realities.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Ethereum's proposer-builder separation: Promises and realities

Reference 14

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:51.406576Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 12d79ba5-d67a-49fc-81c5-804cbdda9fa6 · outbound

This paper cites Non-atomic arbitrage in decentralized finance.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Non-atomic arbitrage in decentralized finance

Reference 15

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:51.270910Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation 8552cbaa-3ced-4aa0-868d-bef8f1a0bc60 · outbound

This paper cites Longllmlingua: Accelerating and enhancing llms in long context scenarios via prompt compression.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Longllmlingua: Accelerating and enhancing llms in long context scenarios via prompt compression

Reference 16

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:51.113939Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation b1f8aa59-636b-4ba2-b620-8f2068650fb7 · outbound

This paper cites Matic network: Scalable and instant blockchain transactions, 2019.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Matic network: Scalable and instant blockchain transactions, 2019

Reference 17

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:51.024955Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation bdfeb420-9850-486b-85f9-2856966438ab · outbound

This paper cites Are Longer Prompts Always Better? Prompt Selection in Large Language Models for Recommendation Systems.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Are Longer Prompts Always Better? Prompt Selection in Large Language Models for Recommendation Systems

Reference 18

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Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation 2e7c6d2c-0417-448f-b604-72cf9e5f9773 · outbound

This paper cites Automated market making and arbitrage profits in the presence of fees.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Automated market making and arbitrage profits in the presence of fees

Reference 19

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:50.929507Z

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Observation 97b87939-2a6e-43b5-96d1-87ad4cb74f73 · outbound

This paper cites Who Wins Ethereum Block Building Auctions and Why?.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Who Wins Ethereum Block Building Auctions and Why?

Reference 20

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Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation 4e76d044-20ae-4843-8999-add4df4571fb · outbound

This paper cites Cross-Chain Arbitrage: The Next Frontier of MEV in Decentralized Finance.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Cross-Chain Arbitrage: The Next Frontier of MEV in Decentralized Finance

Reference 21

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Observation bc93ddc7-4c41-41ba-bcb5-f04b3688e326 · outbound

This paper cites Fide world blitz chess champion 2024.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Fide world blitz chess champion 2024

Reference 22

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:50.795036Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 215cce6a-13ac-4994-be21-9cf1dc13f459 · outbound

This paper cites Presidential election winner– 2024 market.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Presidential election winner– 2024 market

Reference 23

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:50.468215Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 9a1936fa-e938-4ee6-9293-6f76e0019f57 · outbound

This paper cites py-clob-client: Python client for polymarket clob.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets py-clob-client: Python client for polymarket clob

Reference 24

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:50.248467Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 2a824cda-5db4-4d8b-a3ed-4ee5c8116c22 · outbound

This paper cites Tweet on market dynamics and liquidity.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Tweet on market dynamics and liquidity

Reference 25

Resolution: verified exact; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:46.338057Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 5fba2fd0-ca6d-436d-a9d9-a7a5f47241b0 · outbound

This paper cites Tweet on unusual trading activity.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Tweet on unusual trading activity

Reference 26

Resolution: verified exact; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:46.048948Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation b4fc3f25-1c56-4eaf-85df-d0b44d6330fb · outbound

This paper cites Polymarket: A decentralized information markets platform.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Polymarket: A decentralized information markets platform

Reference 27

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:50.046266Z

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Observation 2d5d53fd-d471-43c7-87e5-f5e0d5459334 · outbound

This paper cites Clob introduction.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Clob introduction

Reference 28

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:49.828786Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation dccf0c61-e906-4f83-b09e-68e882f58e1f · outbound

This paper cites How are markets created?, 2025.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets How are markets created?, 2025

Reference 29

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:49.586944Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation eeed4c4e-0164-491b-ab3e-2bc06f67c303 · outbound

This paper cites Uma voter analysis in polymarket disputes.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Uma voter analysis in polymarket disputes

Reference 30

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:49.352075Z

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Observation 78fb6a3c-2481-40a1-8e03-57c12a08e009 · outbound

This paper cites Quantifying blockchain extractable value: How dark is the forest? In 2022 IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy (SP) , pages 198--214.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Quantifying blockchain extractable value: How dark is the forest? In 2022 IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy (SP) , pages 198--214

Reference 31

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:49.174912Z

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Observation 27c22da8-ac5a-4de5-8c14-a1659e9ec7fb · outbound

This paper cites Expert political judgment: How good is it? how can we know?-new edition.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Expert political judgment: How good is it? how can we know?-new edition

Reference 32

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:48.987869Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation b01953fb-67dd-4fe8-9812-2044617b3e44 · outbound

This paper cites Uma dvm oracle whitepaper.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Uma dvm oracle whitepaper

Reference 33

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:48.761597Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation 22f8affd-db23-4640-9f42-a698cb5de350 · outbound

This paper cites Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models

Reference 34

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Observation bbe080bc-4884-41b3-8d2c-c464c627f7df · outbound

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Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Chi, Quoc V

Reference 35

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:48.510370Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation f556d293-2e0b-4b63-8948-05219ce89e96 · outbound

This paper cites A flash (bot) in the pan: measuring maximal extractable value in private pools.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets A flash (bot) in the pan: measuring maximal extractable value in private pools

Reference 36

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:48.281923Z

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Observation 2394bd8e-ca2d-4fb0-8fcc-8efb45c6188c · outbound

This paper cites Accessing polymarket data in python, August 2024.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Accessing polymarket data in python, August 2024

Reference 37

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:48.082897Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 03618b1c-b26f-4706-ba5f-ab5ffd62391a · outbound

This paper cites Prediction markets.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Prediction markets

Reference 38

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:47.863574Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation 256dbef8-f99f-42a8-be70-12ea107c98ea · outbound

This paper cites Mohammad Islam.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Mohammad Islam

Reference 39

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:47.682622Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation 31ea4ba8-b239-40a3-a0d0-2139cad57791 · outbound

This paper cites Sok: Mev countermeasures.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Sok: Mev countermeasures

Reference 40

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:47.443749Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation dd43aa17-003f-4848-8dbe-3de4bb1c5dfc · outbound

This paper cites Griffiths, Yuan Cao, and Karthik Narasimhan.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Griffiths, Yuan Cao, and Karthik Narasimhan

Reference 41

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:47.254615Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 2ee17e71-8d43-4c1d-841e-153e006cdc8a · outbound

This paper cites No fish is too big for flash boys! frontrunning on dag-based blockchains.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets No fish is too big for flash boys! frontrunning on dag-based blockchains

Reference 42

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:46.997411Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation ee753d7c-1dfa-496a-b11f-f16a19205a8e · outbound

This paper cites Apt-pipe: A prompt-tuning tool for social data annotation using chatgpt.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Apt-pipe: A prompt-tuning tool for social data annotation using chatgpt

Reference 43

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:45.076796Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 89a703cf-dd18-447f-bbc9-6dbf5ffdbe0e · outbound

This paper cites Cross-Partisan Interactions on Twitter.

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets Cross-Partisan Interactions on Twitter

Reference 44

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-08-06T04:27:45.481652Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Pith citing papers

Observation 6fa50d64-e66c-49d4-9be3-60da7d8e1839 · inbound

Unlocking the Forecasting Economy: A Suite of Datasets for the Full Lifecycle of Prediction Market: [Experiments \& Analysis] cites this paper.

Unlocking the Forecasting Economy: A Suite of Datasets for the Full Lifecycle of Prediction Market: [Experiments \& Analysis] Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 12

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T13:36:03.469924Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 250fb0ad-5a3e-4b1b-8fa3-20e3340c3faa · inbound

ForesightFlow: An Information Leakage Score Framework for Prediction Markets cites this paper.

ForesightFlow: An Information Leakage Score Framework for Prediction Markets Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 22

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T16:41:12.115956Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation a8f1deab-869f-420d-a4fb-2e62b0893069 · inbound

ForesightFlow: An Information Leakage Score Framework for Prediction Markets cites this paper.

ForesightFlow: An Information Leakage Score Framework for Prediction Markets Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 22

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-15T06:25:07.579256Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation b7c36c67-a602-4653-96c0-73d0419c8556 · inbound

Arbitrage Analysis in Polymarket NBA Markets cites this paper.

Arbitrage Analysis in Polymarket NBA Markets Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 1

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T14:16:05.519562Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 3a113f6f-c4bb-4eb0-b2de-b6b43b50b502 · inbound

Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases cites this paper.

Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 22

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T23:06:20.927671Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation c619c525-ab9d-49d9-ac72-ebac697b9a29 · inbound

Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases cites this paper.

Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 22

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-15T07:39:50.277576Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 4a5fc5f7-5471-494e-9f40-0d68180c7cb1 · inbound

Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill: Two Methodological Lenses on Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets cites this paper.

Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill: Two Methodological Lenses on Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 22

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T23:11:14.007999Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation a893f106-1cee-451e-9746-ddae287b0d0b · inbound

Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill: Two Methodological Lenses on Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets cites this paper.

Reference 22

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-15T07:35:14.518524Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00.

Observation 075dd913-a13a-4df6-84aa-fe176ff9c5cb · inbound

OpenMarket: A Synchronized Polymarket-Binance Dataset for High-Frequency Prediction-Market Research cites this paper.

OpenMarket: A Synchronized Polymarket-Binance Dataset for High-Frequency Prediction-Market Research Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Reference 23

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T00:26:30.922720Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.