REVIEW 3 major objections 5 minor 5 cited by
COLIBRE simulations reproduce JWST's massive quenched galaxies at z≥2, with AGN feedback as the quench driver.
Reviewed by Pith at T0; open to challenge. T0 means a machine referee read the full paper against a public rubric. the ladder, T0–T4 →
T0 review · deepseek-v4-flash
2026-08-03 15:35 UTC pith:KJ52DYA4
load-bearing objection Broad, honest COLIBRE demographic atlas for z≥2 MQGs whose headline number-density agreement is run-selected; the real value is in the dust/H2, size/kinematic, and environmental predictions. the 3 major comments →
Unveiling the population of massive quenched galaxies at zge2 in the COLIBRE simulations -- I. Galaxy demographics
The pith
A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.
Core claim
The central claim is that, within COLIBRE's fiducial (200 cMpc)³ run, galaxies with M★>10^10 M⊙ and sSFR<0.2/t_age match the latest JWST-based number densities and stellar mass functions once a 0.3 dex observational error budget is forward-modelled. The paper further argues that AGN feedback is the dominant quenching mechanism: MQGs host more massive black holes that inject more energy, and they reside in overdense regions before quenching, which accelerates gas inflow, black hole accretion, and feedback. The model yields extended formation (median t50≈0.5–1.5 Gyr) followed by rapid quenching (median tq≲0.6 Gyr), dust and H2 fractions more than a dex below those of massive star-forming galax
What carries the argument
The central mechanism is the combination of an explicit cold interstellar medium (gas cooling to ~10 K via the HYBRID-CHIMES model) with super-Eddington Bondi–Hoyle–Lyttleton black hole accretion and AGN feedback whose energy scales with black hole mass (ΔT_AGN ∝ M_BH for the fiducial thermal model; v_jet ∝ sqrt(M_BH) for the hybrid jets). This mass-scaled feedback links earlier BH seeding and growth in overdense environments to stronger quenching. The paper uses cumulative BH-injected energy as the discriminator between MQGs and massive star-forming galaxies.
Load-bearing premise
The high-redshift predictions inherit a subgrid AGN feedback model calibrated to local (z=0) observations, and the assumption that this calibration—especially the Bondi accretion rate, the 100× Eddington cap, and the thermal injection efficiency—remains valid at z≥2 is the load-bearing premise; if the higher-resolution or hybrid-jet behaviour is more physical, the claimed broad agreement of L200m6 would be a selected outcome.
What would settle it
Run COLIBRE with the m7 or hybrid subgrid prescriptions in a (200 cMpc)³ box and show that MQG number densities fall by more than an order of magnitude across z=2–4; or detect a substantial population of MQGs with dust fractions above 10⁻³ and molecular gas fractions near those of star-forming galaxies, which would contradict the predicted strong gas and dust depletion and the AGN-feedback scenario.
If this is right
- If the L200m6 run is representative, the JWST MQG counts at z≥2 are not in fundamental tension with ΛCDM-based galaxy formation models; part of the apparent excess is attributable to observational scatter in stellar mass and SFR.
- AGN feedback, rather than supernova feedback or environmental stripping, is the proximate quenching mechanism for MQGs; environment acts indirectly by seeding earlier black hole growth.
- MQGs at z≥2 are predicted to be strongly depleted in dust and molecular gas (median f_dust≈10⁻⁴, f_H2≈10⁻²·⁵), so future ALMA, JWST/MIRI, and PRIMA observations of cold gas and dust should confirm the deficit relative to star-forming galaxies.
- Because sizes and kinematics of MQGs are similar to those of coeval massive star-forming galaxies, morphological transformation is expected to occur after quenching, likely through dry mergers.
- A significant fraction of MQGs (up to 55% in the thermal run) experience rejuvenation episodes, so 'quenched' is often temporary, and their z=0 descendants are mostly quiescent.
- the paper's error-convolution exercise implies a quantitative prediction: if different SED-fitting choices (SFH priors, stellar population models, IMF) are applied to real MQGs, the inferred number densities should spread by roughly 0.3 dex in log10; a spread much larger or smaller would indicate that the agreement is fortuitous.
- The predicted environmental driver suggests a testable clustering signature: MQGs at z≈3 should be more strongly clustered than mass-matched star-forming galaxies, particularly on scales of 0.3–1 cMpc before the quenching epoch.
- The model's prediction that MQGs have a higher dust-to-H2 ratio (median DGR≈0.1) than the canonical 0.01 used in observational analyses implies that future far-IR stacking of spectroscopically confirmed MQGs should find elevated DGR if the simulation is correct, or would challenge the dust model if not.
Editorial analysis
A structured set of objections, weighed in public.
Referee Report
Summary. The paper uses the COLIBRE cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, in several volumes, mass resolutions, and AGN feedback implementations, to predict the demographics and properties of massive quenched galaxies (MQGs) at z >= 2. It reports MQG number densities and stellar mass functions, star formation histories, dust and H2 fractions, sizes, and kinematics, and compares these with recent JWST-based constraints. The authors find that the L200m6 run, after convolving simulated stellar masses and SFRs with independent 0.3 dex Gaussian errors, is in broad agreement with the most robust observational estimates. They further trace MQG progenitors and descendants and conclude that AGN feedback is the primary quenching mechanism, that MQGs form preferentially in overdense environments, and that roughly half of z=3 MQGs survive as main progenitors of z=0 galaxies, with up to 55% experiencing rejuvenation.
Significance. If the headline demographic claim survives scrutiny, this is a valuable paper. COLIBRE is a state-of-the-art simulation suite with explicit dust and cold-gas modelling, and the paper makes an unusually broad set of falsifiable predictions: number densities, SMFs, SFH timescales, dust/H2 content, sizes, and kinematics. The forward-modelling of observational scatter is a useful methodological step, and the comparison with multiple independent JWST datasets is timely. The mechanistic analysis of BH growth, feedback energy, and environment is also informative. However, the central abundance claim currently rests on a single fiducial run selected partly for its agreement after error convolution, and on an ad hoc 0.3 dex convolution width. These issues are load-bearing and need to be addressed before the paper's main conclusions can be accepted as robust.
major comments (3)
- [§4.1.1, Fig. 2, Table 1] The MQG number density varies by orders of magnitude across the COLIBRE family: L050m5 produces only 2 MQGs at z=3, L200m7 produces ~3x more than L200m6, and the hybrid runs produce far fewer. No convergence test is presented. The choice of L200m6 as the fiducial run is justified in §4.1.2 as performing better after error convolution, which is outcome-based selection. Since all runs are separately calibrated to z=0, claiming 'broad agreement with observations' for COLIBRE is currently a statement about one selected model, not about the model family. Please provide a physical convergence criterion, a systematic resolution study, or explicitly frame the result as applicable to L200m6 only.
- [§4.1.1, Fig. 2, Appendix B] The 0.3 dex Gaussian scatter independently applied to M* and SFR is a free, ad hoc assumption. Without this convolution the fiducial L200m6 run underpredicts the observed number densities; with it, the paper claims broad agreement. Appendix B shows only that increasing the scatter monotonically raises the predicted densities; it does not justify the 0.3 dex choice or test correlated errors. Since this convolution is essential to the headline demographic claim, its width and independence must be calibrated to high-z SED-fitting systematics or shown not to change the conclusions within a plausible range.
- [§5.1, Fig. 9, Eqs. (5)-(9)] The conclusion that 'AGN feedback drives quenching' is based on the finding that MQGs have higher cumulative BH-injected energy than MSFGs. But this signal is partly built into the model by construction, because the feedback energy scales with BH mass and accretion rate (Eqs. 5-6 and 8-9) and no other quenching mechanism is available in this mass regime. Moreover, the thermal vs. hybrid comparison in §5.1 uses different resolutions (L200m6 vs. L200m7h), so resolution effects are not isolated. A controlled experiment, such as a no-AGN feedback run, a same-resolution thermal/hybrid pair with quenching fractions, or a test in which feedback efficiency is varied while holding resolution fixed, is needed to support the causal claim.
minor comments (5)
- [Abstract] Typo: 'JWSThas' should be 'JWST has'.
- [§4.1.3] The sentence describing the SAM volumes appears to duplicate 'Galform': one entry should presumably be 'GAEA'.
- [Fig. F1 caption] Typo: 'hyfrogen' should be 'hydrogen'.
- [§3.3] The statement that the v*/sigma* measurements are 'effectively upper limits' is useful but could be quantified; consider adding a short discussion of expected bias magnitude.
- [Table 2] The median energy ratios in Table 2 are informative, but the caption should state whether they are medians over galaxies and how galaxies with zero contribution are handled.
Circularity Check
Fiducial run selected partly on the target number-density data; the headline demographic agreement is therefore at least partially selected rather than a fully independent prediction.
specific steps
-
fitted input called prediction
[Section 4.1.2 (Comparison with observations); Abstract]
"For the remainder of §4, we primarily focus on the fiducial L200m6 simulation. ... This run also performs better in reproducing the observed number density evolution after we consider errors."
L200m6 is adopted as the fiducial run after comparing the COLIBRE variants, which span orders of magnitude in predicted n_MQG at fixed redshift (Fig. 2, Table 1). The stated reason for the choice includes better performance against the observed MQG number-density evolution, and the same observed quantity is then reported in the Abstract as being 'in broad agreement' with the simulations. This is a discrete model-selection step on the headline target quantity: the agreement is partly an input to the choice of fiducial, not a fully independent prediction. It is not a continuous fit of subgrid parameters, and the paper's other MQG properties (SMFs, SFHs, dust/H2, sizes, kinematics) are not used in the selection, so the circularity is partial.
full rationale
The COLIBRE subgrid parameters are calibrated to z=0 data (SMF, galaxy sizes, BH masses; Schaye et al. 2025; Chaikin et al. 2025a), not to the z≥2 MQG observations, so the demographic comparison is not circular in the usual fitted-parameter sense. The main circularity concern is the selection of L200m6 as fiducial: it is justified partly by its better reproduction of the observed n_MQG after error convolution, and the same agreement is then advertised as a prediction. Because the runs vary by orders of magnitude in n_MQG, this is an outcome-based model selection on the headline quantity, although the paper is transparent about it. The AGN-feedback-as-primary-quenching conclusion is a model interpretation: the simulations only include AGN feedback as an effective massive-galaxy quenching mechanism, but the paper demonstrates quantitative correlations between BH-injected energy, BH mass and quiescence rather than assuming the conclusion. Self-citations to companion COLIBRE papers are present but the analysis here is largely self-contained against external JWST benchmarks, so no load-bearing circular self-citation chain was found. Overall, the central claim has substantial independent content, but the headline number-density agreement is partially selected rather than fully predicted; score 4.
Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger
free parameters (5)
- Gaussian error-convolution width (sigma_logM*, sigma_logSFR) =
0.3 dex each, independent
- AGN thermal feedback temperature normalization =
dT_AGN = 1e9 K at M_BH=1e8 Msun; max 1e10 K for m6
- BH seeding threshold mass =
M_FoF,seed = 1e10 Msun (m6), 5e10 Msun (m7)
- AGN feedback coupling efficiency epsilon_f =
calibrated to z=0 BH-to-stellar mass relation
- Hybrid jet velocity cap =
10^4.5 km/s (selected during calibration)
axioms (6)
- standard math LambdaCDM cosmology with DES Y3 parameters (h=0.681, Omega_m=0.306, Omega_b=0.0486)
- domain assumption Bondi-Hoyle-Lyttleton accretion with f_turb/f_ang corrections and 100x Eddington cap approximates unresolved BH growth
- domain assumption Thermal stochastic AGN feedback (Booth & Schaye) with dT_AGN proportional to M_BH captures jet/radiation effects in fiducial runs; hybrid model likewise
- domain assumption Gravitational-instability star formation criterion plus fixed 1% efficiency per free-fall time reproduces the Kennicutt-Schmidt relation
- domain assumption HBT-HERONS subhalo/merger-tree tracking correctly identifies main progenitors and descendants
- ad hoc to paper Independent Gaussian 0.3 dex errors on M* and SFR represent observational uncertainty
Cite this review
Pith. "Pith review of Unveiling the population of massive quenched galaxies at $z\ge2$ in the COLIBRE simulations -- I. Galaxy demographics." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/KJ52DYA4
@misc{pith2026251216208,
author = {Pith},
title = {Pith review of: Unveiling the population of massive quenched galaxies at $z\ge2$ in the COLIBRE simulations -- I. Galaxy demographics},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/KJ52DYA4}},
note = {Machine review of arXiv:2512.16208}
}
read the original abstract
JWST has uncovered a substantial population of Massive ($M_{\star} \gtrsim 10^{10}\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$), Quenched Galaxies (MQGs) in the early Universe ($z \gtrsim 2$), whose properties challenge current galaxy formation models. In this series, we examine this population of MQGs within the new COLIBRE cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, which introduce key innovations in their sub-grid physics. In this first paper, we find a dependence of MQG number densities on both mass resolution and the Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN) feedback implementation, as well as a significant impact from potential observational uncertainties. Using the fiducial $(200\,\rm cMpc)^3$ volume L200m6 simulation, which provides adequate volume, mass and spatial resolution to study these systems, we report number densities and stellar mass functions in broad agreement with the latest observations. The predicted quenching and formation timescales are qualitatively consistent with observational inferences, indicating extended formation (medians $t_{50}\approx0.5-1.5\,\mathrm{Gyr}$) followed by rapid quenching (medians $t_{\mathrm{q}}\lesssim0.6\,\mathrm{Gyr}$) with strong starburst episodes. Leveraging the state-of-the-art physics in COLIBRE, the model predicts that MQGs have dust and $\rm H_{2}$ fractions more than $1$ dex lower than their massive star-forming counterparts; generally consistent with the (scarce) observational estimates. MQGs and massive star-forming systems show broadly similar sizes and kinematics, suggesting that size or morphological transformations occur after quenching in COLIBRE. Our results provide robust predictions for MQGs and show that tensions with observations are reduced when an effective observational uncertainty is forward-modelled.
Figures
Forward citations
Cited by 5 Pith papers
-
The evolution of galaxy dust scaling relations in the COLIBRE simulations
The COLIBRE simulations reproduce the broad evolution of galaxy dust scaling relations from z=15 to 0, but overproduce the z<1 cosmic dust mass density and miss the most extreme sub-millimeter galaxies.
-
The evolution of the galaxy gas-phase mass-metallicity relation from $z=15$ to $z=0$ in the COLIBRE cosmological simulations
COLIBRE simulations find the galaxy gas-phase MZR already in place at z≈10 with little evolution until z≈5, then shallowens at low z, with high-mass turnover set by AGN feedback and low-mass end by core-collapse supernovae.
-
Extended [CII] gas emission in and around a massive quiescent galaxy at z=7.3
Extended [CII] emission reveals a large cold gas halo around the z=7.27 quiescent galaxy RUBIES-UDS-QG-z7, with gas mass estimates indicating f_gas >20% and possible past AGN-driven outflow.
-
Winding Back the Clock: Recent Star Formation Histories of Massive Quiescent Galaxies Are Consistent With Their Rapid Number Density Evolution Since $\mathbf{z\sim7}$
Star formation histories inferred for z=2-5 massive quiescent galaxies imply past number densities that align with observed rapid evolution since z~7.
-
The importance of super-Eddington black hole accretion for the emergence of massive quiescent galaxies at high redshift
Super-Eddington black hole accretion is the COLIBRE ingredient that reproduces JWST's high-redshift massive quiescent galaxy abundance.
Reference graph
Works this paper leans on
-
[1]
Abbott T. M. C., et al., 2022, Phys. Rev. D, 105, 023520 Adamo A., et al., 2025, Nature Astronomy, 9, 1134 AdscheidS.,MagnelliB.,CieslaL.,LiuD.,SchinnererE.,BertoldiF.,2025, arXiv e-prints, p. arXiv:2508.18097 Alberts S., et al., 2024, ApJ, 975, 85 Antwi-Danso J., et al., 2023, Is there Evidence of alpha-Enhancement in Massive Quiescent Galaxies at z > 3?...
arXiv 2022
-
[2]
with predictions from other galaxy formation and evolution models; here, we extend this analysis to the full redshift range2≤𝑧≤7
The horizontal dotted line denotes the threshold of 10 galaxies, below which the statistics become unreliable. with predictions from other galaxy formation and evolution models; here, we extend this analysis to the full redshift range2≤𝑧≤7. In Fig. 4, we found that, relative to the latestJWSTobservations, the highest-massendoftheSMFandthepredictionsat𝑧≳5l...
2025
-
[4]
This relation becomes steeper at higher redshifts, indicating that dust is depleted after quenching, with no significant regrowth
In the left panel, we plot dust fraction versus quenching timescale,showingthatgalaxiesthatquenchedearlierhavelowerdust content relative to their stellar mass. This relation becomes steeper at higher redshifts, indicating that dust is depleted after quenching, with no significant regrowth. The dust removal seems to be quicker the higher the redshift, as r...
2025
-
[5]
In the top panel, we show the galaxy size–mass relation, which extends up to𝑧=5owing to the larger volume of the L400m7 box
shift the non-reliable regime to less compact systems. In the top panel, we show the galaxy size–mass relation, which extends up to𝑧=5owing to the larger volume of the L400m7 box. The blue arrows on the left-hand side indicate the corresponding softeninglength.RelativetoL200m6,L400m7displaysabreakinthe power-lawrelationatslightlylowerstellarmasses(𝑀 ★∼10 ...
2025
-
[7]
L200m6 M /M > 1010.8 z = 2 z = 3 z = 4 M /M > 1010.8 z = 2 z = 3 z = 4 Figure D1.Star formation histories of MQGs. Solid lines show the median predictions from the L200m6COLIBREsimulation at redshifts2≤𝑧≤4, with different colours indicating selection redshift and shaded regions show- ingthe16thand84thpercentilerange.ThesearecomparedtoJWSTspectro- scopic m...
2025
-
[8]
This is in agreement with the observational results in (Kawinwanichakij et al
Consequently, the loss of rotation in MQGs within dense environments is due to feedback disrupting their rota- tional support. This is in agreement with the observational results in (Kawinwanichakij et al. 2025), where more dispersion-supported systems live in denser environments, highlighting the role of envi- 2 3 4 5 redshift obs. 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 lo...
2025
-
[9]
arise from BH-related physics. To isolate the effects of feedback, we compare simulations with the same volume and resolution, namely L200m7 MNRAS000, 1–31 (2025) MQGs at𝑧≥2in COLIBRE31 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 tq/Gyr 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 log10(fdust = Mdust/M ) 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 log10(sSFR/yr
2025
-
[10]
5 4 3 2 log10(fH2 = MH2 /M ) 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 log10(fdust = Mdust/M ) 7.500 7.875 8.250 8.625 9.000 12 + log10(O/H) 0 1 2 t50/Gyr 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 log10(r /kpc) z = 2 z = 3 z = 4 z = 2 z = 2 sat z = 2 z = 2 sat 0.000 0.375 0.750 1.125 1.500 tq/Gyr Figure F1.Dust fraction (𝑓dust =𝑀 dust/𝑀★) versus quenching time, colour-coded by sSFR (left panel)...
2009
-
[2009]
(2025) versus MILES (Falcón-Barroso et al
for Nanayakkara et al. (2025) versus MILES (Falcón-Barroso et al. 2011)forBakeretal.(2025c).Ontheotherhand,bothemployMIST isochrones (Paxton et al
2025
-
[2015]
(2000) dust attenuation law and uniform metallicity priors
(which assumes fixed solar abun- dances), a Chabrier (2003) IMF, and the Calzetti et al. (2000) dust attenuation law and uniform metallicity priors. These methodological differences explain the behaviours seen in Fig
2003
discussion (0)
Sign in with ORCID, Apple, or X to comment. Anyone can read and Pith papers without signing in.