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Parametric and nonparametric symmetries in graphical models for extremes

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arxiv 2306.00703 v1 pith:LYGNLXRH submitted 2023-06-01 math.ST stat.MEstat.TH

Parametric and nonparametric symmetries in graphical models for extremes

classification math.ST stat.MEstat.TH
keywords modelsdistributionsgraphicalcoloredextremalparametricusler--reissapproaches
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Colored graphical models provide a parsimonious approach to modeling high-dimensional data by exploiting symmetries in the model parameters. In this work, we introduce the notion of coloring for extremal graphical models on multivariate Pareto distributions, a natural class of limiting distributions for threshold exceedances. Thanks to a stability property of the multivariate Pareto distributions, colored extremal tree models can be defined fully nonparametrically. For more general graphs, the parametric family of H\"usler--Reiss distributions allows for two alternative approaches to colored graphical models. We study both model classes and introduce statistical methodology for parameter estimation. It turns out that for H\"usler--Reiss tree models the different definitions of colored graphical models coincide. In addition, we show a general parametric description of extremal conditional independence statements for H\"usler--Reiss distributions. Finally, we demonstrate that our methodology outperforms existing approaches on a real data set.

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  1. Estimating the H\"usler--Reiss variogram matrix by clipped moments

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    A lower-tail-clipped moment method estimates the Hüsler–Reiss variogram matrix with reduced bias under weak tail dependence while preserving asymptotic normality.