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Neural Posterior Estimation with guaranteed exact coverage: the ringdown of GW150914

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arxiv 2305.18528 v2 pith:OUVMWS27 submitted 2023-05-29 gr-qc

classification gr-qc
keywords ringdowngw150914posterioramplitudecoverageexactfirstguaranteed
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal
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We analyze the ringdown phase of the first detected black-hole merger, GW150914, using a simulation-based inference pipeline based on masked autoregressive flows. We obtain approximate marginal posterior distributions for the ringdown parameters, namely the mass, spin, and the amplitude and phases of the dominant mode and its first overtone. Thanks to the locally amortized nature of our method, we are able to calibrate our posteriors with injected simulations, producing posterior regions with guaranteed (i.e. exact) frequentist coverage of the true values. For GW150914, our calibrated posteriors provide only mild evidence (~ 2 sigma) for the presence of an overtone, even if the ringdown is assumed to start at the peak of the amplitude.

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Cited by 3 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score.

  1. Combining simulation-based inference and universal relations for precise and accurate neutron star science

    gr-qc 2026-01 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    A machine-learning simulator trained on 1,491 simulated equations of state discovers a neutron-star radius relation R(M,f,p1), predicting radii to tens of meters with calibrated error bars.

  2. Impact of sky localization uncertainty on ringdown inference

    gr-qc 2026-05 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    Properly accounting for sky localization uncertainty in ringdown inference widens mode-amplitude posteriors, avoids bias from fixed point estimates, and leaves amplitude ratios robust for Kerr spectroscopy.

  3. Spectroscopy of analogue black holes using simulation-based inference

    gr-qc 2026-04 unverdicted novelty 5.0 of 10

    Simulation-based inference reliably extracts physical parameters from noisy spectra of analogue black holes.

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