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REVIEW 3 major objections 5 minor 12 references

Five TESS giant-planet candidates left without mass measurements are now confirmed planets, with masses measured by radial velocities and transits.

Reviewed by Pith at T0; open to challenge. T0 means a machine referee read the full paper against a public rubric. the ladder, T0–T4 →

Follow-up of seven TESS hot-Jupiter candidates confirms five new planets (TOI-603 b, TOI-2114 b, TOI-4492 b, TOI-5806 b, TOI-5811 B b), one false positive (TOI-1837), and one inconclusive case (TOI-1137).

T0 review reviewed 2026-08-01 challenge →

load-bearing objection A solid, workmanlike confirmation paper that delivers five new planets (four good JWST targets), with some internal inconsistencies and one planetary signal that leans on the TESS ephemeris more than I'd like. the 3 major comments →

arxiv 2607.19756 v1 pith:PXT63OJK submitted 2026-07-22 astro-ph.EP

CAFE follow-up of TESS hot Jupiter candidates left behind: I. Five newly confirmed planets and a false positive

classification astro-ph.EP
keywords exoplanetshot Jupitersradial velocityTESSplanet confirmationtransiting planetsNeptune savannastellar companions
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

This paper reports the confirmation of five previously unconfirmed TESS planet candidates — four hot Jupiters and one super-Neptune — by measuring their masses with radial velocities and jointly modeling them with TESS photometry. The central claim is that TOI-603 b, TOI-2114 b, TOI-4492 b, TOI-5806 b, and TOI-5811 B b are genuine planets with masses ranging from 33 Earth masses to 5.9 Jupiter masses, orbiting stars bright enough for detailed follow-up. The same campaign also shows that TOI-1837.01 is an eclipsing binary rather than a planet, while TOI-1137.01 remains ambiguous. If correct, these results add five worlds to the sparsely populated hot-Jupiter census and demonstrate that a modest-size ground-based spectrograph can complete the confirmation work left undone for the more massive TESS candidates.

Core claim

The paper establishes that five transiting signals detected by TESS and previously lacking mass measurements are bona fide planets. Using joint fits of radial-velocity and transit data, it reports masses and radii for each: a 33 Earth-mass sub-Saturn in a 16.2-day orbit (TOI-603 b, placed in the Neptune savanna), and hot Jupiters in short-period orbits around slightly evolved stars — TOI-2114 b (about 1 Jupiter mass, eccentricity near 0.47), TOI-4492 b (about 5.9 Jupiter masses, unusually dense), TOI-5806 b (about 2.3-2.8 Jupiter masses, with a bound stellar companion at a projected 248 au), and TOI-5811 B b (about 0.8 Jupiter masses) — the last transiting the visual companion in a hierarchi

What carries the argument

The load-bearing tool is a joint modeling code that fits radial velocities and TESS light curves simultaneously, sampling posteriors with an affine-invariant Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampler and comparing models through Bayesian evidence. Confirmation rests on an explicit three-principle protocol: model and signal significance (at least 3 sigma and Bayesian preference over a no-planet model), demonstrated origin of the transit via high-angular-resolution imaging, centroid-shift analysis, and ground-based photometry, and planetary mass regime. For each target, high-spatial-resolution speckle and adaptive-optics imaging set the contrast limits used to exclude blended eclipsing binaries.

Load-bearing premise

For TOI-2114 b, the 7.2-sigma mass significance relies on Gaussian priors on orbital period and epoch inherited from the TESS transit ephemeris, because the radial-velocity data alone are insufficient for an independent detection; if those priors are wrong or an unresolved blended companion dilutes the RV amplitude, that confirmation collapses, while the other four planets have stronger RV support.

What would settle it

A decisive test is to gather enough high-precision radial velocities of TOI-2114 to detect the roughly 96 m/s Keplerian signal without imposing the transit-derived period and phase. If the signal is not recovered, or if deep speckle imaging reveals a companion within about 0.1 arcseconds that could dilute the transit depth, the planet claim for TOI-2114 b fails. More broadly, comparing this paper's false-positive fraction with the full TESS hot-Jupiter candidate pool would test whether the leftover candidates are systematically more contaminated.

Watch this falsifier. Get emailed when new claim-graph text bears on it.

If this is right

  • Four of the five confirmed planets have transmission spectroscopy metrics above 90, making them high-priority targets for atmospheric characterization.
  • TOI-603 b sits in the sparsely populated Neptune savanna, a region thought to be sculpted by disk-driven migration; its low eccentricity upper limit (below 0.58) is consistent with that population.
  • TOI-4492 b is unusually dense (about 6.4 g/cm^3) for a giant planet; the paper argues this follows from its high mass and electron degeneracy, and rules out a blended companion as the explanation.
  • TOI-2114 b's high eccentricity (about 0.47) with a nearly zero RV slope raises the question of an unseen outer companion or a high-eccentricity migration remnant.
  • TOI-5811 is a hierarchical triple in which the transiting planet orbits the outer component B, and TOI-5806 hosts a planet plus a bound stellar companion, making both S-type planetary systems.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the two-in-seven rate of false positives and inconclusive cases seen here scales to the roughly 3,200 unconfirmed TESS hot-Jupiter candidates, a substantial fraction may turn out to be eclipsing binaries or blends; a statistical census applying this confirmation pipeline to a larger random sample would quantify that fraction.
  • TOI-2114 b's high eccentricity combined with a possible long-term slope suggests that a dedicated radial-velocity campaign could uncover an outer companion; if found, the system would directly test high-eccentricity migration models.
  • The grazing transit of TOI-5811 B b (impact parameter near 0.97) makes its radius poorly constrained; higher-cadence space photometry could refine the radius and test whether its very low density is real.
  • The TOI-1137 ambiguity — a planet versus a low-mass star around a hidden K dwarf — could be settled by higher-contrast imaging inside 0.1 arcseconds or by confirming the tentative ellipsoidal variations seen in the TESS data.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

3 major / 5 minor

Summary. This paper presents a ground-based follow-up campaign of seven TESS hot-Jupiter candidates using CAFE2 radial velocities, supplemented by data from other spectrographs, high-resolution imaging, and ground-based photometry. The authors jointly model TESS photometry and RVs for each target, evaluate Bayesian evidence, and assess confirmation against the proposed Exoplanet Confirmation Protocol GP1–GP3. They confirm five planets (TOI-603 b, TOI-2114 b, TOI-4492 b, TOI-5806 b, TOI-5811 B b), identify TOI-1837.01 as an eclipsing binary, and leave TOI-1137.01 inconclusive. The paper is well structured and includes extensive ancillary observations, which are used to establish the origin of the transit signals.

Significance. If correct, the paper adds five transiting planets with measured masses, including a super-Neptune in the 'Neptune savanna' and a high-density hot Jupiter. The multi-instrument RV dataset, high-resolution imaging, centroid analysis, and ground-based photometry are clear strengths; the Bayesian model comparison thresholds are stated explicitly. The main risk is TOI-2114 b, where the RVs are admittedly insufficient for an independent detection and the confirmation rests on priors inherited from the TESS ephemeris. There are also internal mass inconsistencies for TOI-5806 b and TOI-603 b. These issues are fixable, but they need to be resolved before the central confirmation claim can be fully trusted.

major comments (3)
  1. The confirmation of TOI-2114 b is not robustly demonstrated because the prior choice is internally contradictory. §5.4 states that the joint modeling uses 'broad uninformative priors on the period and ephemeris', but Table D.4 lists Gaussian priors G(6.2099619,0.00006) and G(60476.661598,0.009895) for P and T0. §4.2 asserts that more uninformative priors give nearly unchanged results, but no such test is shown for TOI-2114. Since §5.4 explicitly admits that the RV data are insufficient for an independent detection, the RV-only ΔlnZ=+16.3 and the reported 7.2σ mass significance may be inflated by the tight TESS ephemeris priors. This is load-bearing because TOI-2114 b is one of the five headline confirmations. Please provide an analysis with truly uninformative priors (or a quantitative prior-sensitivity test) to demonstrate that GP1 is satisfied.
  2. The mass of TOI-5806 b is inconsistent within the paper. §5.6 reports mp=2.27+0.26−0.25 MJup in the joint-analysis summary and Table D.4 lists this value, but the same section later invokes mp=2.77+0.34−0.32 MJup for GP3, and the abstract quotes 2.77+0.34−0.32 MJup. Please harmonize the reported value and clarify which model or parameterization produced each. This is not a typographical issue because the mass underpins the GP3 confirmation and the planet's physical characterization.
  3. The mass of TOI-603 b is quoted as 35.7+6.5−6.5 M⊕ in §5.1, while Table D.4 and the abstract give 33.0+6.5−6.2 M⊕. This discrepancy affects the reported mass and the 'Neptune savanna' classification. Please correct the inconsistent reporting and clearly state the final adopted mass.
minor comments (5)
  1. The number of TRES observations of TOI-603 is described as 'six visits' in the text but listed as '4 (TRES)' in Table D.1. Please harmonize these numbers for reproducibility.
  2. Typo: 'unin formative' should be 'uninformative'.
  3. The Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value for FWHM versus RVs are reported. Please clarify which dataset and which pair of quantities the p-value refers to, since the sentence structure is ambiguous.
  4. The Exoplanet Confirmation Protocol is referenced as 'Lillo-Box et al., in prep.' and used to define GP1–GP3. Since this document is not yet available, please state the criteria explicitly in this paper as a working definition, or cite a published source, to avoid reliance on an unpublished document.
  5. The sentence beginning 'The four candidates span...' appears to refer to more than four objects; please adjust to 'The five confirmed planets' or 'The four hot Jupiters' as appropriate.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; planet confirmations are grounded in external RV and TESS photometry, with only minor non-load-bearing self-citations.

full rationale

The paper's derivation chain is self-contained with respect to its central claim. The five planet confirmations rest on measured CAFE/HIRES/HARPS/SOPHIE/TRES/CARMENES RVs and TESS photometry jointly modeled with rebeal (§4.1–5.7); the RV semi-amplitudes are fit to the data, not prescribed, and the orbital periods/epochs are inherited from TESS, an external constraint, so no derived quantity reduces by construction to a fitted input. The only explicitly flagged weakness is TOI-2114 (§5.4): 'the number and precision of radial velocity datapoints is insufficient to obtain an independent detection of the planet via RVs,' and the reported ΔlnZ=+16.3 is computed with Gaussian priors on P and T0 from the TESS ephemeris. This is a prior-sensitivity and statistical-significance caveat, not circularity: the prior comes from independent photometry, the paper asserts uninformative priors give nearly unchanged results (§4.2), and the joint model also uses the transit signal itself. The in-prep ECP criteria (Lillo-Box et al., in prep., §4.3) and the SHAQ/rebeal tools are self-citations, but the criteria are fully restated in this paper and the tools are software implementations; neither forces the measured masses. No equation in the paper is equivalent to its input by construction.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

4 free parameters · 4 axioms · 0 invented entities

This is a measurement paper, so most assumptions are standard observational or modeling choices. The main ad hoc elements are the Gaussian priors on period/epoch and the TOI-5806 activity GP. No new physical entities are introduced; 'Neptune savanna' is an existing classification, and TOI-5811 B is a detected stellar companion.

free parameters (4)
  • RV semi-amplitude K (per planet) = 8.0, 96.5, 712.8, 237.1, 71.8 m/s for TOI-603 b, TOI-2114 b, TOI-4492 b, TOI-5806 b, TOI-5811 B b
    Fitted in the joint MCMC (Table D.4); directly sets the planet mass and is the central measurement.
  • Orbital eccentricity and argument of periastron (TOI-2114 b) = e=0.472±0.026, ω=211.2±5.5 deg
    Fitted to RVs; the eccentric model is preferred by ΔlnZ=17.9, and the eccentricity drives the discussion of tidal circularization.
  • GP hyperparameters for TOI-5806 (η1-η4) = η1=4.89, η2=48 d, η3=13.91 d, η4=1.37
    Quasi-periodic GP used to model stellar activity in RVs and BIS; if too flexible it could absorb part of the planetary signal.
  • Photometric jitter and RV slope per system = Various, Table D.4
    Included as nuisance parameters for stellar variability and long-term instrumental/activity trends.
axioms (4)
  • domain assumption TESS SPOC light curves and transit ephemerides are reliable enough to provide Gaussian priors on P and T0.
    Used throughout §4–5; if the ephemerides are biased, the phase-folded RV signals would be distorted.
  • domain assumption Stellar masses from Eker et al. (2018) MLR, Torres et al. (2010) calibration, and PARSEC tracks are accurate for these stars.
    Planet masses are derived from K using these stellar masses (§3); systematic errors propagate directly into planet masses.
  • ad hoc to paper For TOI-5806, the quasi-periodic GP captures stellar activity without removing the planetary signal.
    The GP is fit jointly to RVs and BIS (§5.6); if it is too flexible, K could be biased.
  • domain assumption No unresolved companions below the high-resolution imaging contrast limits contribute significant flux or RV signal.
    Used to establish GP2 for all targets; a faint binary could dilute transit depth and RV amplitude, changing the inferred planet properties.

reviewed 2026-08-01 · how reviews work

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of CAFE follow-up of TESS hot Jupiter candidates left behind: I. Five newly confirmed planets and a false positive." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/PXT63OJK

@misc{pith2026260719756,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: CAFE follow-up of TESS hot Jupiter candidates left behind: I. Five newly confirmed planets and a false positive},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/PXT63OJK}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2607.19756}
}
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abstract

Hot Jupiters are key targets for understanding planet formation, migration, and atmospheres. Yet, most ground-based follow-up resources for the TESS mission are focused on confirming low-mass planet candidates, leaving many giant planets without mass determinations or definitive confirmation. We use the \cafe{} spectrograph at Calar Alto Observatory to monitor the radial velocity of stars hosting hot-Jupiter candidates that have received little follow-up, aiming to confirm their planetary nature. We present results for seven candidates. We monitored the radial velocity of TOI-603, TOI-1137, TOI-1837, TOI-2114, TOI-4492, TOI-5806, and TOI-5811, jointly modeling the CAFE radial velocities and TESS photometry to determine the nature and properties of the transiting objects. We confirm five new planets: TOI-603 b ($33.0^{+6.5}_{-6.2}$ M$_{\oplus}$, $16.2$ d), TOI-2114 b ($1.01^{+0.14}_{-0.12}$ M$_{\rm Jup}$, $6.2$ d), TOI-4492 b ($5.92^{+0.67}_{-0.64}$ M$_{\rm Jup}$, $4.4$ d), TOI-5806 b ($2.77^{+0.34}_{-0.32}$ M$_{\rm Jup}$, $3.2$ d), and TOI-5811 B b ($0.81^{+0.11}_{-0.10}$ M$_{\rm Jup}$, $6.3$ d). TOI-603 b lies in the "Neptune savanna", whereas the other four are hot Jupiters orbiting slightly evolved stars. We find TOI-5811.01 to be a planet transiting the nearby bound companion TOI-5811 B (hence TOI-5811 B b), and identify a stellar companion to TOI-5806 at a projected separation of 248 au, making both S-type planetary systems. TOI-1837.01 is an eclipsing binary, while TOI-1137.01 remains inconclusive. The five confirmed planets orbit bright stars (${\rm G}=8.6-10.2$~mag), and four are excellent targets for atmospheric studies, with transmission spectroscopy metrics above 90. These results highlight the importance of intensive follow-up observations to establish the nature of transiting planet candidates.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2607.19756 by A. Abreu, A. Bieryla, A. Chontos, A. Garmash, A. Masson, B. Massey, B. Montesinos, B. Safonov, C. A. Clark, C. Cifuentes, C. Haukes, C. Littlefield, C. Stockdale, C. Ziegler, D. Barrado, D. Ciardi, D. Latham, D.-V. Zora, E. Delgado-Mena, E. Pall\'e, E. W. Guenther, F. Murgas, F. P. Wilkin, G. H\'ebrard, G. Srdoc, H. Bouy, I. J. Helm, J. Aceituno, J. A. Mu\~noz, J. C. van Eyken, J. D. Hartman, J. E. Schlieder, J. F. Ag\"u\'i Fern\'andez, J. F. Kielkopf, J. Flores-Mart\'in, J. K\"ohler, J. Lillo-Box, J. McCormac, J. N. Winn, J. Wittrock, K. A. Collins, L. D. Nielsen, M. Azzaro, M. B. Lund, M. E. Everett, M. Morales-Calder\'on, M. Mori, M. Reefe, N. Heidari, N. Narita, O. Balsalobre-Ruza, P. Benni, P. Plavchan, R. For\'es-Toribio, R. G. West, S. B. Howell, S. G\'ongora, S. J. Deveny, S. W. Yee.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Schematic view of the resulting configurations inferred by our study of the seven transiting candidates. Confirmed planets with confirmed locations are shown as black circles with sizes proportional to their host star symbol size. The location of the planet symbols also corresponds to the inferred impact parameter. Dotted lines indicate the motion across the transit. 5.4. TOI-2114 For TOI-2114, we first te… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Results for TOI-4492 b from the joint radial velocity and light curve analysis. Upper panels: Phase-folded radial velocity observa￾tions including all instruments used in the modeling (see legend). RVs binned into five orbital phases with a weighted average method are shown for reference as gold hexagons. The median RV model is shown as a solid gold line and the 68.7% confidence interval is represented by … view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Confirmed planets from this study in context with the current exoplanet population. Left panel: Mass-radius diagram for known planets (gray plus symbols) and our newly confirmed planets (colored hexagons). Iso-density lines are included and labelled. The location of Jupiter (J), Saturn (S) and Neptune (N) are also indicated. Middle panel: Planet density versus star-planet separation (a/R⋆). TOI-603 b stand… view at source ↗

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Reference graph

Works this paper leans on

12 extracted references · 1 linked inside Pith

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    Aceituno, J., Sánchez, S. F., Grupp, F., et al. 2013, A&A, 552, A31 Adams, F. C. & Laughlin, G. 2003, Icarus, 163, 290 Allard, F., Homeier, D., & Freytag, B. 2012, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series A, 370, 2765 Aller, A., Lillo-Box, J., Jones, D., Miranda, L. F., & Barceló Forteza, S. 2020, A&A, 635, A128 Aller, L. H., Appen...

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    The observations of the three targets were performed with the telescope defocused. For TOI- 1137, the exposure times were set to 5 s for all bands; for TOI- 1837, the exposure times were set to 6 s forg ′,i ′, andz s, and 3 s for ther ′ band; for TOI-2114, the exposure times were 11 s forg′ andr′, and 15 s for thei′ andz s bands. The raw data were reduced...

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    a planet transiting star B. Our CAFE2 spectra (clearly dominated by light from the gi- ant star) display a RV scatter at the 25 m/s level and no signif- icant correlation between the RV and the FWHM over the two year time span of the observations. Therefore, this suggests that star B is either very faint, or it is bright but has very broad lines due to ra...

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    C.4.Results for TOI-2114 b from the joint radial velocity and light curve analysis

    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 RV (km/s) TOI-2114 CAFE2 SOPHIE TLS TRES Binned RVs 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Phase (from inferior conjunction) 200 0 200 O-C (m/s) 4000 2000 0 2000 Relative Flux (ppm) TESS (original) TESS (21-min bin) 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 Phase 250 0 250 Fig. C.4.Results for TOI-2114 b from the joint radial velocity and light curve analys...

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    C.5.Results for TOI-5806 b from the joint radial velocity and light curve analysis

    0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 RV (km/s) TOI-5806 CAFE2 SOPHIE Binned RVs 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Phase (from inferior conjunction) 250 0 250 O-C (m/s) 4000 2000 0 Relative Flux (ppm)TESS (original) TESS (7-min bin) 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 Phase 250 0 250 Fig. C.5.Results for TOI-5806 b from the joint radial velocity and light curve analysis. Panel descriptions are...

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    C.6.Results for TOI-5811 B b from the joint radial velocity and light curve analysis

    0.10 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 RV (km/s) TOI-5811B CARMENES TRES 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Phase (from inferior conjunction) 25 0 25 O-C (m/s) 2000 1000 0 1000 Relative Flux (ppm)TESS (original) TESS (29-min bin) 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 Phase 500 0 500 Fig. C.6.Results for TOI-5811 B b from the joint radial velocity and light curve analysis. Panel descriptions a...

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    v3_Lillo-Box_CAFE-TESSfollow-up Appendix D: Additional tables Table D.1.TESS and radial velocity observations used in this work for each of the targets

    Article number, page 19 A&A proofs:manuscript no. v3_Lillo-Box_CAFE-TESSfollow-up Appendix D: Additional tables Table D.1.TESS and radial velocity observations used in this work for each of the targets. TOI Sectors N RV CAFE tspan σRV,CAFE NRV others (days) (m/s) 603 [8, 35, 45, 15 86 16.5 4 (TRES) 46, 61, 72] 1137 [14, 54] 9 282 6.5 2 (TRES) 1837 [23,77]...

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    (†) The Gaussian priors for the orbital period and time of conjunction for each of the targets are as follows

    0.0916 +0.0062 −0.0111 LU(10−4,0.0606) 0.0540 +0.0046 −0.0046 Orbital inclination,i b [deg]U(50,90) 89.58 +0.39 −0.29 U(70,90) 84.39 +0.52 −0.44 U(70,90) 88.78 +0.84 −0.81 U(70,90) 82.24 +0.39 −0.28 U(70,90) 76.72 +0.72 −0.76 Effective temperature,T eff [K]G(6027,93) 6027 +96 −86 G(6382,200) 6380 +200 −200 G(5667,140) 5660 +140 −150 G(6602,200) 6610 +200 ...

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    Even in this case, the modeling (see Fig. B.1) favors an scenario where the eclipsing object has a mass of 20.0+10.0 −7.2 MJup based on the detection of low-amplitude ellipsoidal variations (with ob- served non-dilution corrected amplitude ofA ellip =35 +16 −19 ppm). We also infer an inflated radius of 2.35 +0.26 −0.20 RJup, likely due to the proximity to...

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    We used theTESS Transit Finder, which is a customized version of theTapirsoftware package (Jensen 2013), to auto- schedule our transit observations

    1.0 m network nodes. We used theTESS Transit Finder, which is a customized version of theTapirsoftware package (Jensen 2013), to auto- schedule our transit observations. The 1.0 m telescopes are equipped with a 4096×4096 SINISTRO camera having an image scale of 0′′.389 per pixel, resulting in a 26′×26′ field of view. The images were calibrated by the stan...

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    2.2, and the sensitivity curves from the high-spatial resolution images presented in Sec

    and studied in Sect. 2.2, and the sensitivity curves from the high-spatial resolution images presented in Sec. 2.4. 193219341936193819401942 Pixel Column Number 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Pixel Row Number E N m = -2 m = 0 m = 2 m = 4 m = 6 1 TOI-1837 - Sector 23 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Flux ×104 (e /s) 0.1 1 Angular separation (arcsec) 0 2 4 6 8 10 Cont...

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    The 2023 and 2024 observations have good enough focus and seeing to separate the 2.1′′ neighbor and demonstrate that the event is indeed on target. A.2.6. TOI-5811 The LCO observation of TOI-5811A(ab) obtained on 10-jul- 2023 caught about 90% of the transit window, according to the QLP ephemeris from sectors 55 and

This paper was first reviewed by deepseek-v4-flash on August 1, 2026.