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The ESO SupJup Survey V: Exploring Atmospheric Variability and Orbit of the Super-Jupiter AB Pictoris b with CRIRES+

T0 review · 3 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-10 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read Four nights of spectra of the young super-Jupiter AB Pic b show a solar C/O ratio, carbon isotope shifts tied to clouds, and a spin axis that is either slow or pole-on.

desk verdict The composition and v sin i results on AB Pic b are solid, but the spin-axis headline depends on an unpropagated 1.6σ rotation period. read the letter →

arxiv 2501.05114 v1 pith:TCEWVMAW submitted 2025-01-09 astro-ph.EP

Siddharth Gandhi , Sam de Regt , Ignas Snellen , Paulina Palma-Bifani , Idriss Abdoulwahab , Gaël Chauvin , Darío González Picos , Yapeng Zhang
show 7 more authors
Rico Landman Tomas Stolker Aurora Kesseli Willeke Mulder Antoine Chomez Anne-Marie Lagrange Alice Zurlo
This is my paper · ORCID
classification astro-ph.EP
keywords ABPictorisbdirectlyimagedexoplanethigh-resolutionspectroscopyatmosphericretrievalcarbonisotoperatioC/Ovariabilityspin-orbitmisalignment
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

Four consecutive nights of high-resolution CRIRES+ spectra of the directly imaged super-Jupiter AB Pic b are used to ask whether the atmosphere of this young, wide-orbit companion changes on day-to-day timescales. The paper aims to establish that the bulk composition is broadly stable — with a carbon-to-oxygen ratio of $0.59 \pm 0.01$, consistent with the Sun — while the measured carbon isotope ratio ($^{12}$C/$^{13}$C) shifts by up to about $3\sigma$ between nights in a way that tracks the depth of the cloud deck. It then argues, from atmospheric retrievals (Bayesian fits of a physical model to the spectrum), that the planet's low projected rotation velocity ($v \sin i \approx 3.7$ km/s) means AB Pic b is either intrinsically a slow rotator because it is young, or is seen pole-on with a projected spin-orbit obliquity near 90 degrees. The reason to care is that this is one of the first attempts to use high-resolution spectroscopy to separate genuine atmospheric variability of a directly imaged companion from retrieval systematics, and to tie isotope-ratio measurements to cloud structure.

What carries the argument

The analysis rests on high-resolution ($R \approx 93{,}000$–$113{,}000$) CRIRES+ spectra in the K-band, processed with a dedicated reduction pipeline and high-pass filtered so that all constraints come from the shapes and depths of individual molecular lines rather than the continuum. The retrieval engine is HyDRA, a Bayesian atmospheric retrieval code that fits the pressure–temperature profile with a smoothness penalty, a Gaussian-process covariance model for correlated residuals, vertically constant chemical abundances, and a power-law cloud deck with wavelength-dependent opacity. The carbon isotope ratio is read off directly from the line strengths of $^{13}$CO relative to $^{12}$CO, while the projected rotation velocity is measured by convolving the model with a rotational broadening kernel after removing the assumed instrumental resolution; converting that $\sim 3.7$ km/s broadening into a pole-on spin-axis and obliquity then uses a published probability-density method that takes the rotation period from earlier photometry.

What would settle it

Independently calibrate the per-night spectral resolution with a fast-rotating standard star or a telluric-line fit through the same 0.4-inch slit and re-derive the rotation speed: if the true resolution is more than about 10–15 percent above the assumed value, $v \sin i$ would rise to roughly 5–8 km/s and overturn the pole-on interpretation, while a confirmed value near 3.7 km/s would support it.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

Using the HyDRA retrieval framework on high-pass-filtered spectra, the paper detects H$_2$O, $^{12}$CO, and $^{13}$CO in each of the four nights, with $^{13}$CO detected at $12\sigma$ in the combined dataset. The individual nights give broadly consistent abundances that vary at the ${\sim}2\sigma$ level, with the variation tracking the steepness of the deep temperature profile, and $^{12}$C/$^{13}$C ratios that vary between $70^{+16}_{-9}$ and $120^{+16}_{-15}$, anti-correlated with the retrieved cloud-deck pressure. Combining all nights gives C/O $= 0.59 \pm 0.01$, matching the solar value, and $^{12}$C/$^{13}$C $= 102 \pm 8$, slightly higher than the ISM and Solar System values. From the low $v \sin i \approx 3.7$ km/s, the paper argues that AB Pic b is either an intrinsically slow rotator due to its young age or is seen pole-on, with a revised orbit (inclination $98^{+12}_{-5}$ degrees) yielding a projected spin-orbit obliquity of $86.4 \pm 18.6$ degrees; the paper flags that this rotation measurement is highly dependent on the assumed spectral resolution.

Load-bearing premise

The load-bearing premise is that each night's spectral resolution, estimated from the width of the trace on the detector assuming the blur is symmetric in all directions, is correct; because the measured rotation speed is only about $3.7$ km/s, comparable to the resolution uncertainty, any error in that resolution directly changes the rotation speed and, with it, the pole-on and near-90-degree obliquity interpretation.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • If the C/O $= 0.59 \pm 0.01$ result holds, AB Pic b formed from material with a solar carbon-to-oxygen ratio, placing its formation near the CO snowline rather than in a strongly carbon-enriched disk region.
  • If the night-to-night isotope shifts are real, single-epoch $^{12}$C/$^{13}$C measurements of variable companions mix formation chemistry with cloud structure, so repeat observations are needed before interpreting isotope ratios as formation tracers.
  • If the projected obliquity of $86.4 \pm 18.6$ degrees is correct, AB Pic b joins a small list of directly imaged companions with Uranus-like spin-orbit misalignment, constraining dynamical histories with wide-orbit scattering or disk migration.
  • If AB Pic b is intrinsically slow-rotating because it is young, then it should spin up as it contracts, making its rotation period evolve measurably over time.
  • The revised orbit (semi-major axis about 307 AU, inclination about 98 degrees) strengthens the case that AB Pic b is on a very wide, highly inclined orbit, with the companion currently moving toward its host star in projection.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the cloud-deck correlation with $^{12}$C/$^{13}$C is confirmed in other objects, multi-epoch high-resolution spectroscopy could turn isotope-ratio retrievals into a diagnostic of vertical mixing and cloud patchiness in giant-planet atmospheres, since $^{13}$CO forms deeper than $^{12}$CO.
  • The pole-on scenario predicts little rotational variability, so a survey comparing low-$v \sin i$ companions with fast rotators of similar age could test whether low projected rotation speeds systematically suppress spectroscopic variability.
  • A Doppler-imaging campaign spanning several rotation periods could break the slow-rotator-versus-pole-on degeneracy: a fast rotator seen pole-on would show a symmetric polar velocity field, while an intrinsically slow rotator would show essentially no line-profile distortion.
  • Explicitly modeling telluric contamination night by night could turn the reported 2–3-sigma parameter shifts into a quantitative test of whether the variability is atmospheric or instrumental, since the nights with the lowest signal-to-noise show the largest deviations from the median.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

3 major / 5 minor

Summary. The paper presents four nights of VLT/CRIRES+ K-band spectroscopy of the directly-imaged companion AB Pic b, analyzed with the HyDRA retrieval framework. The authors report robust per-night detections of H2O, 12CO, and 13CO (the latter at 4.8–7.2σ per night and 12.0σ combined), with broadly consistent abundances across nights but 1–3σ differences that they interpret as atmospheric variability. A combined retrieval yields C/O = 0.59 ± 0.01 (solar-like) and 12C/13C = 102 ± 8. From a low projected rotational velocity v sin i ≈ 3.7 km/s and a newly updated orbital fit, they argue that AB Pic b is either intrinsically slow-rotating or viewed pole-on, and they quote a projected obliquity of 86.4° ± 18.6° that would imply a Uranus-like spin–orbit misalignment.

Significance. If the detections and C/O and isotope constraints hold, this is a valuable data point for the SupJup survey: it extends high-resolution atmospheric retrievals and isotope-ratio measurements to a young, directly-imaged super-Jupiter, and it presents one of the first systematic night-to-night variability studies of such an object with CRIRES+. The paper is transparent about its parameter choices and priors, uses publicly available data and established reduction/retrieval tools, and the per-night 13CO detections are supported by both retrievals and cross-correlation functions. The variability and obliquity interpretations are more fragile, but the former is cautiously worded in the text and the latter is a testable claim that can be strengthened or softened with the period-uncertainty propagation suggested below.

major comments (3)
  1. [§3.4.2, Eq. (10) from Bryan et al. (2020)] The quoted spin-axis inclination ip = 1.8° ± 1.3° and projected obliquity 86.4° ± 18.6° are computed with the rotational period fixed to P = 2.1 h from Zhou et al. (2019), a candidate detected at only 1.6σ. Because ip ≈ arcsin(v sin i P / 2πR) is nearly linear in P for small angles, the period uncertainty dominates the error budget. The paper tests P = 8.4 and 16.8 h but does not propagate the period posterior or address the possibility that the 2.1 h signal is spurious. The abstract and conclusions therefore overstate the case for a '~90° misalignment'; the robust claim is the disjunctive one (intrinsically slow rotator or viewed pole-on). Please propagate the full period uncertainty or explicitly present the obliquity as conditional on the Zhou et al. period.
  2. [§3.1, Fig. 6, Table 3] The evidence for night-to-night atmospheric variability rests on (i) a CCF of median-subtracted data against the best-fit model from the combined retrieval of the same four nights, and (ii) 1–3σ differences in retrieved parameters among four nights. The |CCF| ≲ 4 values are a scaled proxy, not a detection significance, and the template is derived from the same data being tested, so the variability significance is not fully quantified. Please provide a formal significance estimate (for example, a posterior predictive test or a cross-validation where the template is built from the other three nights), or explicitly state that the variability is suggestive rather than detected.
  3. [§2.1/Table 1, §3.2.4] The low v sin i ≈ 3.7 km/s is derived from line broadening after convolving models with per-night resolutions inferred from the trace width under an isotropic PSF assumption. At this value, the broadening is comparable to the resolution uncertainty, and the pole-on/slow-rotator interpretation depends on v sin i being genuinely small. Although the paper acknowledges this in §3.2.4, a sensitivity test that varies the assumed R by, say, ±10–20% would show whether the qualitative conclusion is robust; without it, the systematic error on v sin i is not quantified.
minor comments (5)
  1. [§2.2.3, Eq. (7)] The word 'pofints' in the sentence containing Eq. (7) should be 'points'.
  2. [§2.2] The text reads 'uses the the HyDRA retrieval framework'; the duplicate 'the' should be removed.
  3. [§3.4.2] Near the end of the section, 'the orbital period could be as high as ~65 hours' should read 'rotation period', since the estimate is derived from the spin–orbit alignment assumption rather than from orbital dynamics.
  4. [Fig. 6 caption] The caption contains 'We divide the the values by the standard deviation'; the duplicate 'the' should be removed.
  5. [§2.2.1, Eq. (1)] The notation 'PEN(3) gps' in Eq. (1) is unexplained and appears to be a typesetting artifact; please clarify or fix.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No significant circularity: all central claims are standard retrievals of the same data, and the flagged caveats are external inputs or instrument systematics, not self-referential reductions.

full rationale

The paper's central claims stem from atmospheric retrievals and cross-correlation analyses of new CRIRES+ observations, which are fitted to the data rather than derived from the model assumptions used to make them. The C/O and 12C/13C constraints, night-to-night abundance variations, and 13CO detections are standard retrieval outputs, not predictions of quantities already defined by the priors or by the retrieval setup. The variability analysis in Figure 6 uses the combined-retrieval best-fit model as a template for the median-subtracted data, which is a matched-filter diagnostic; the actual variability conclusions are independently supported by per-night retrievals, so the template does not force the result by construction. The v sin i measurement is explicitly stated in Section 3.2.4 to be dependent on the assumed spectral resolution, which is a calibration systematic rather than a circular reduction. The obliquity calculation in Section 3.4.2 adopts the external rotation period from Zhou et al. (2019), explicitly tests alternative periods of 8.4 and 16.8 hours, and notes the 1.6-sigma significance; while the quantitative pole-on obliquity depends on this unpropagated external input, that is a robustness concern, not a self-referential derivation. The paper also identifies the degeneracy between temperature gradient and abundances in Section 3.2.2 as a fit degeneracy, not a prediction. No load-bearing self-citation chain or equation-level reduction of an output to an input was found.

Assumptions & free parameters 21 free parameters · 7 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The retrieval fits 33 parameters per night and 51 in the combined run. All headline numbers (abundances, C/O, 12C/13C, v sin i, cloud deck pressure) are directly fitted parameters or ratios of fitted parameters, so the paper's constraints are measurement outputs rather than predictions. Modeling choices enter through the P-T smoothness prior, the semi-grey cloud prescription, the fixed vertical abundance structure, and the high-pass filter; each is a stated assumption rather than a hidden free parameter. No new physical entities are introduced.

free parameters (21)
  • log(H2O) volume mixing ratio = -3.15 ± 0.08 (combined nights)
    Retrieved chemical abundance; central to the C/O derivation.
  • log(12CO) volume mixing ratio = -3.00 ± 0.08 (combined nights)
    Retrieved chemical abundance; central to the C/O and 12C/13C derivations.
  • log(13CO) volume mixing ratio = Implied by 12CO/13CO = 102 ± 8
    Retrieved isotopologue abundance; used for the 12C/13C ratio claim.
  • log(C18O) volume mixing ratio = Upper limit < -6.7 (2σ)
    Retrieved species, not detected.
  • log(HCN) volume mixing ratio = Upper limit near -6 (2σ)
    Retrieved species, only a hint in night 4.
  • log(CH4) volume mixing ratio = Upper limit near -6 (2σ)
    Retrieved species, not detected.
  • log(NH3) volume mixing ratio = Upper limit near -6 (2σ)
    Retrieved species, not detected.
  • log(CO2) volume mixing ratio = Upper limit near -6 (2σ)
    Retrieved species, not detected.
  • T at 100 bar, 10 bar, 3 bar, 1 bar, 0.3 bar, 0.1 bar, 0.01 bar, 10^-4 bar, 10^-6 bar = T(0.1 bar) = 1714 ± 5 K; other knots not tabulated, see Figure 11
    Nine temperature profile knots, each a free parameter governing line shapes and abundance-temperature degeneracies.
  • log(gamma) P-T penalty factor = Not tabulated
    Controls the smoothing penalty on the retrieved temperature profile.
  • log(kappa_cl,2um) cloud opacity = Posterior in Figure 12
    Cloud opacity at 2 microns, free parameter in the semi-grey cloud model.
  • log(kappa_cl,2.5um) cloud opacity = Posterior in Figure 12
    Cloud opacity at 2.5 microns, free parameter in the semi-grey cloud model.
  • log(P_cl) cloud deck pressure = P_cl = 2.18 +0.37/-0.30 bar (combined)
    Free parameter; central to the claimed 12C/13C versus cloud deck correlation.
  • log(alpha_cl) cloud opacity power-law index = Not tabulated
    Pressure dependence of cloud opacity.
  • GP amplitude a per order per night = 5 per night, 20 combined; not tabulated
    Gaussian process noise amplitudes, one for each order and detector.
  • GP lengthscale log(l/um) = Not tabulated
    Correlated noise lengthscale in the likelihood.
  • Radius R_p/R_J = ~1.85 R_J (per night and combined)
    Retrieved radius used for mass and rotation-period interpretation.
  • log(g/cm/s^2) = ~4.4, weak constraint
    Surface gravity, degenerate with abundances.
  • v sin i (projected rotational velocity) = 3.7 km/s (combined)
    Central to the spin-axis and obliquity claims; sensitive to resolution assumption.
  • epsilon (limb darkening coefficient) = Not tabulated
    Limb darkening for rotational broadening.
  • Radial velocity per night (4 values) = About 20.5 to 21 km/s in Figure 13; star at 22.65 km/s
    Separate RV for each night in combined retrieval.
assumptions (7)
  • domain assumption One-dimensional, plane-parallel, hydrostatic, LTE atmosphere with vertically constant chemical abundance profiles.
    Section 2.2.2 states abundances are vertically constant, a simplification that affects how line shapes map to temperature and composition.
  • domain assumption Temperature profile smoothness enforced through a 3rd-derivative penalty.
    Equation 1: the penalty can suppress real kinks; the gamma parameter is fitted but the prior still shapes the profile.
  • ad hoc to paper Semi-grey cloud parameterization: power-law opacity in pressure and log-linear opacity between 2 and 2.5 microns.
    Equations 2 and 3: this prescription is not a microphysical cloud model, so retrieved cloud deck pressures are model-dependent.
  • domain assumption High-pass filtering with a 100-pixel boxcar removes continuum but preserves line ratios and abundance ratios.
    Section 2.2.5: load-bearing for the C/O and 12C/13C interpretations; the paper acknowledges radius and absolute abundances become less certain.
  • domain assumption Nightly spectral resolution can be derived from the trace width assuming an isotropic point-spread function.
    Section 2.1 and 2.2.4: directly affects v sin i; the paper states the value is highly dependent on this assumption.
  • domain assumption Solid-body rotation and the adopted rotation period of 2.1 hours from Zhou et al. (2019) are used to convert v sin i into spin inclination.
    Section 3.4.2: the 2.1-hour period is a 1.6 sigma measurement; the authors also test 8.4 and 16.8 hours, which changes the obliquity.
  • standard math Gaussian process covariance model, uniform priors, and MultiNest nested sampling provide unbiased posteriors.
    Equations 4 to 10 and Table 2: standard retrieval machinery with stated priors.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of The ESO SupJup Survey V: Exploring Atmospheric Variability and Orbit of the Super-Jupiter AB Pictoris b with CRIRES+." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/TCEWVMAW

@misc{pith2026250105114,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: The ESO SupJup Survey V: Exploring Atmospheric Variability and Orbit of the Super-Jupiter AB Pictoris b with CRIRES+},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/TCEWVMAW}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2501.05114}
}
abstract

A growing number of directly-imaged companions have been recently characterised, with robust constraints on carbon-to-oxygen ratios and even isotopic ratios. Many companions and isolated targets have also shown spectral variability. In this work we observed the super-Jupiter AB~Pictoris~b across four consecutive nights using VLT/CRIRES+ as part of the ESO SupJup survey, exploring how the constraints on chemical composition and temperature profile change over time using spectral line shape variations between nights. We performed atmospheric retrievals of the high-resolution observations and found broadly consistent results across all four nights, but there were differences for some parameters. We clearly detect H$_2$O, $^{12}$CO and $^{13}$CO in each night, but abundances varied by $\sim2\sigma$, which was correlated to the deep atmosphere temperature profiles. We also found differences in the $^{12}$C$/^{13}$C ratios in each night by up to $\sim3\sigma$, which seemed to be correlated with the cloud deck pressure. Our combined retrieval simultaneously analysing all nights together constrained broadly the average of each night individually, with the C/O$=0.59\pm0.01$, consistent with solar composition, and $^{12}$C$/^{13}$C~$ = 102\pm8$, slightly higher than the ISM and Solar System values. We also find a low projected rotational velocity, suggesting that AB~Pictoris~b is either intrinsically a slow rotator due to its young age or that the spin axis is observed pole-on with a $\sim90^\circ$ misalignment with its orbit inclination. Future observations will be able to further explore the variability and orbit of AB~Pictoris~b as well as for other companions.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2501.05114 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Schematic of the AB Pic system, showing the orbital separation of the host star to the target. We also show the orbital separations and inclinations of the Solar System gas giants and the suggested variation of the gas and solid phase C/O ratio and 12C/13C. The blue regions show the expected locations of the snowlines for the prominent species in protoplanetary disks. Gas giant planets that form further from their h… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Observing conditions for each night of the observations. The left panel shows the airmass, the middle panel shows the Differential Image Motion Monitor (DIMM) seeing and the right panel shows the coherence time. Note that our observations towards the end of each night were performed in twilight. Night AB pairs Observing time/min DIMM Seeing / ¨ Coherence Time / ms PWV / mm Spectral resolution 2022-11-01 11 110 0.365… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Set up of the slit orientation for our observations. We used the 0.4" slit, with AB Pic A set as the slit viewer guide star and the natural guide star for the wavefront sensor. We only placed AB Pic b on the slit, with a nod throw of 6". wavelength grid for our AB Pic b observations [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p004_3.png] view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (12 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Extracted spectrum of our standard star, µ Pic, for all seven orders and three detectors for night 1 (2022-11-01). We also show the telluric template used to fit the wavelength solution. Note that detector 1 of order 3 contains the Brackett γ line of µ Pic, which was m…
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Data for each night subtracted by the median spectrum of all 4 nights. The mean residual for each order and detector is indicated with the associated error bar on the left hand side of each order-detector pair. We also show the molecular cross sections of H2O, 12CO and…
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Cross-correlation function (CCF) of the high-pass fil￾tered data for each night subtracted by the median over all nights against the best fit model from the combined retrieval. We divide the the values by the standard deviation away from the peak and hence they act as …
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Best fit model from the retrieval of night 1 (blue) against the observations (black). We also show the residuals between the model and the data in the bottom panels for each order. The mean photon noise for each order and detector is indicated with a black error bar, a…
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Marginalised posterior distributions of the volume mixing ratios for H2O and CO, and the derived C/O and 12C/13C ratio of the atmosphere of AB Pic b for each of the nights. The horizontal error bars indicate the median and ±1σ uncertainties on each constraint. MNRAS 00…
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Cross-correlation function (CCF) for 13CO for each of the individual nights of observations for AB Pic b. We divide the the values by the standard deviation away from the peak and hence they act as a proxy for the signal-to-noise. We performed the cross-correlation on …
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Marginalised posterior distributions for the cloud opacity at 2 µm and 2.5 µm for the individual nights of obser￾vation for AB Pic b. in P-T profiles in the retrieval may be more limited. Addi￾tionally, as we are observing an average over the companion’s atmosphere, p…
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Marginalised posterior distributions for the radius, log(g), v sin i and RV for the individual nights of observation for AB Pic b. tion 3.2.1. This also correlates well with the slightly stronger spectral features in night 3 as seen in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_f…
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: Constraints on the parameters for the combined retrieval of AB Pic b simultaneously analysing all four nights. For the isotopic ratio, we show the Solar System value with the blue dotted line and the ISM value and 1σ uncertainty with the red line and shaded region (Wi…
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: Comparison of our retrieved C/O and 12C/13C ratio from our combined retrieval of all four nights to other close-in planets, companions and isolated targets. These were obtained from Line et al. (2021), Finnerty et al. (2023), Gandhi et al. (2023b), Xuan et al. (2024c)…
Figure 16
Figure 16. Figure 16: Best orbital solution from Orbitize!. On the left, the positions of AB Pic A and AB Pic b are marked with a black star and a purple circle, respectively. The colormap represent the predicted position over time for 50 randomly selected orbits, with black indicating ear…
Figure 17
Figure 17. Figure 17: (Left panel) The orbital inclination from Palma-Bifani et al. (2023) and the updated distribution from this work in grey and light pink respectively. (Center panel) The probability density distributions for the inclination of AB Pic b for the reported period of 2.1 ho…

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Pith tools

Reviewed August 10, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.