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Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answering

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arxiv 2305.18404 v3 pith:VSR3DGPK submitted 2023-05-28 cs.CL cs.LGstat.ML

classification cs.CLcs.LGstat.ML
keywords predictionconformallanguagemodelslargeuncertaintyapplicationsquantification
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As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to provide uncertainty quantification in language models for the specific task of multiple-choice question-answering. We find that the uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are tightly correlated with prediction accuracy. This observation can be useful for downstream applications such as selective classification and filtering out low-quality predictions. We also investigate the exchangeability assumption required by conformal prediction to out-of-subject questions, which may be a more realistic scenario for many practical applications. Our work contributes towards more trustworthy and reliable usage of large language models in safety-critical situations, where robust guarantees of error rate are required.

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Forward citations

Cited by 15 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. Improving Backward Conformal Prediction via Non-Conformity Score Transformation

    stat.ML 2026-02 reject novelty 7.0 of 10

    ST-BCP tightens the coverage bound in Backward Conformal Prediction by applying a computable data-dependent transformation to nonconformity scores, reducing the average gap from 4.20% to 1.12% on benchmarks while prov...

  2. Large Language Models for Statistical Inference: Context Augmentation with Applications to the Two-Sample Problem and Regression

    stat.ME 2025-06 conditional novelty 7.0 of 10

    Context augmentation uses LLM-generated contexts as latent variables to enable frequentist two-sample tests and text-on-text regression with claimed asymptotic guarantees.

  3. PARC: A Quantitative Framework Uncovering the Symmetries within Vision Language Models

    cs.LG 2025-06 reject novelty 6.0 of 10

    PARC measures prompt sensitivity in VLMs, showing semantic changes hurt most and InternVL2 models are most robust.

  4. Multivariate Conformal Prediction using Optimal Transport

    stat.ML 2025-02 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Using the norm of an optimal transport map as a conformity score gives distribution-free, finite-sample coverage for multivariate conformal prediction sets.

  5. Prune 'n Predict: Optimizing LLM Decision-making with Conformal Prediction

    cs.LG 2024-12 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Conformal pruning of answer choices plus a second LLM pass improves MCQ accuracy in most tested settings, and learned scores yield smaller prediction sets.

  6. Cloud-Native Evaluation-as-a-Service: A Microservices Architecture for Scalable AI Monitoring with Conformal Guarantees

    cs.LG 2026-07 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    A reference architecture packages conformal prediction, calibration, drift detection, and fairness monitoring as six Kubernetes microservices, with experiments showing coverage and drift-detection behavior consistent ...

  7. Conformal Arbitrage: Risk-Controlled Balancing of Competing Objectives in Language Models

    cs.AI 2025-06 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    Conformal Arbitrage calibrates a score-gap threshold with conformal risk control so that a primary model can act when confident and defer to a guardian otherwise, with the expected guardrail loss bounded by a user-cho...

  8. CP-Router: An Uncertainty-Aware Router Between LLM and LRM

    cs.CL 2025-05 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    CP-Router uses conformal prediction set sizes from an LLM to decide whether to route a prompt to that LLM or to a more expensive reasoning model, cutting token use with minimal or no accuracy loss.

  9. Predictive Inference With Fast Feature Conformal Prediction

    cs.LG 2024-12 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    FFCP approximates feature conformal prediction with a gradient-normalized score, cutting runtime about 50x while maintaining coverage guarantees.

  10. StreamAdapter: Efficient Test Time Adaptation from Contextual Streams

    cs.CL 2024-11 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    StreamAdapter compresses a demonstration cache into low-rank parameter updates at test time, matching or beating in-context learning on several benchmarks while keeping generation time constant.

  11. Membership Inference Attacks with False Discovery Rate Control

    stat.ML 2025-08 conditional novelty 4.0 of 10

    A post-hoc wrapper, MIAFdR, converts any membership inference attack scores into conformal p-values and applies a Benjamini-Hochberg correction, guaranteeing that the expected proportion of non-members among flagged m...

  12. WQLCP: Weighted Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Robust Uncertainty Quantification Under Distribution Shifts

    cs.LG 2025-05 reject novelty 4.0 of 10

    WQLCP weights calibration samples by VAE reconstruction losses and scales test scores by a test-loss quantile to improve conformal prediction under shifts, but the algorithm is ill-defined and the empirical support is weak.

  13. Towards Trustworthy Retrieval Augmented Generation for Large Language Models: A Survey

    cs.CL 2025-02 conditional novelty 4.0 of 10

    A survey organizes current research on trustworthy RAG into six pillars, reliability, privacy, safety, fairness, explainability, and accountability, and maps methods, metrics, and open problems for each.

  14. A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models: Taxonomy, Open Research Challenges, and Future Directions

    cs.CL 2024-12 conditional novelty 4.0 of 10

    A review that organizes LLM uncertainty quantification into token-level, self-verbalized, semantic-similarity, and mechanistic interpretability categories.

  15. Shapley Uncertainty in Natural Language Generation

    cs.AI 2025-07 reject novelty 3.0 of 10

    A 'Shapley uncertainty' metric for LLM outputs is proposed, but its total equals the differential entropy it was meant to fix, and the claimed properties and performance gains are not supported.

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