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REVIEW 3 major objections 6 minor 59 references

Trusting CHATGPT: how minor tweaks in the prompts lead to major differences in sentiment classification

T0 review · 3 major / 6 minor · reviewed 2026-08-16 · deepseek-v4-flash

Pith's one-line read Subtle prompt rewording shifts GPT-4o mini's sentiment classifications: ten variants over 100,000 Spanish comments produced statistically different label distributions except for one near-identical pair.

desk verdict Large, reproducible Spanish-language demonstration of prompt sensitivity undercut by a paired-data chi-square and an overclaim of 'major differences'. read the letter →

arxiv 2504.12180 v1 pith:WJDVGMGD submitted 2025-04-16 cs.CL cs.AI

classification cs.CLcs.AI
keywords largelanguagemodelspromptengineeringsentimentanalysispolarityclassificationGPT-4ominirobustnesstrustSpanish-languagedata
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

The paper asks how far a slightly reworded instruction can change what a large language model reports about the same texts. It classified 100,000 Spanish YouTube comments about four Latin American presidents as positive, negative, or neutral with GPT-4o mini, using ten zero-shot prompts built from two seed prompts and varied by sentence order, synonym choice, modal verbs, and grammatical breakdown. The tested hypothesis—that subtle prompt changes cause no significant differences—fails: chi-square comparisons reject equal label distributions for almost every prompt pair, the only exception being the first seed prompt and its modal variation. The paper reads this as evidence that LLM sentiment classification is not robust to non-semantic prompt variation, and that trust in these models cannot rest on technical performance alone.

What carries the argument

The argument is carried by a controlled perturbation design: ten zero-shot prompts in two groups, each built from a different seed prompt, with four linguistic perturbation types per seed—inter-sentence reordering, lexical-semantic substitution, modal-verb shift, and telegraphic desestructuring. The confirmatory instrument is the chi-square test, which compares each prompt's marginal counts of positive, negative, neutral, and inconsistent labels against those of every other prompt, using the other prompt as the expected distribution. Supporting exploratory tools are PCA on prompt embeddings, a pairwise coincidence matrix, and word-level Levenshtein distance, which together show that structurally closer prompts tend to classify more alike without guaranteeing identical outcomes.

What would settle it

Apply a paired or effect-size analysis to the paper's own 10 by 100,000 classification table: if McNemar-style paired comparisons or measures such as Cohen's kappa show that pairwise disagreements are negligible in size despite p-values below 0.05, then the claim that prompt tweaks produce significant classification differences would be weakened to 'statistically detectable but practically trivial'.

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Extended reading notes

Core claim

The paper's central discovery is that GPT-4o mini does not treat semantically similar instructions as equivalent. Holding model and temperature constant, the same 100,000 comments were classified under ten prompts; pairwise coincidence rates were high, between 0.92 and 0.98, yet chi-square tests of the label distributions rejected equal distributions for all pairs except prompts 1 and 7. Unstructured prompts produced the most off-scheme outputs—mixed categories, unsolicited explanations, and non-Spanish answers—which the paper counts as inconsistent and links to hallucination. The conclusion is that changes in lexical, syntactic, modal, or structural prompt form produce statistically significant variations in polarity classification, and therefore that the model's robustness to prompt perturbation is limited.

Load-bearing premise

The load-bearing assumption is that the 100,000 classifications made under each prompt are independent of the classifications of the same comments under the other prompts; because the data are paired and the sample is large, even small practical disagreements produce very small p-values.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • A single prompt cannot be treated as a neutral measurement instrument for LLM sentiment analysis; another wording can shift the aggregate label distribution.
  • Social scientists using LLM classification should report their prompt and test its variants, because prompt-dependent results limit comparability across studies.
  • Telegraphic or grammatically broken prompts increase off-scheme outputs, so prompt clarity is a data-quality issue, not just a usability preference.
  • If robustness is defined as invariance to non-semantic prompt changes, the paper's results show that this criterion is not met for GPT-4o mini on Spanish sentiment classification.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The high coincidence rates between 0.92 and 0.98 mean the statistically significant differences may be small in practical size; a paired effect-size analysis would clarify how much of the conclusion survives.
  • The same 100,000 comments could be given human ground-truth labels to identify which prompt's flips are actual errors; the paper names this as future work, but the data already permit it.
  • Running the same ten-prompt battery on other models and in other languages would show whether this fragility is specific to GPT-4o mini on Spanish or a general property of LLMs.
  • Because 'inconsistent' responses were added as a fourth category, the chi-square result depends partly on off-scheme outputs; reanalyzing with only the three instructed categories would isolate the effect of the inconsistent responses.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

3 major / 6 minor

Summary. The paper tests the hypothesis that subtle variations in prompt wording (lexical, syntactic, modal-pragmatic, and unstructured) do not produce significant differences in sentiment polarity classification when using GPT-4o mini. The authors collected 100,000 Spanish YouTube comments about four Latin American presidents and classified each comment ten times, once per prompt, at temperature zero. Exploratory analyses include PCA of prompt embeddings, a pairwise coincidence matrix of exact label agreement, and Levenshtein distances between prompts. Confirmatory analysis uses chi-square tests on the aggregate label counts for each prompt. The reported coincidence matrix shows 92–98% exact agreement between prompt pairs, yet the chi-square tests reject the null hypothesis of equal distributions for nearly all pairs, with only prompts 1 and 7 not significantly different. The paper concludes that subtle prompt changes significantly affect classifications and that unstructured prompts increase the frequency of inconsistent (hallucinated) outputs.

Significance. If the central claim were properly supported, the paper would make a useful contribution to computational social science and applied NLP by quantifying prompt sensitivity in a large, non-English, real-world corpus. Strengths include the large Spanish dataset, several linguistically motivated prompt manipulations, a controlled temperature setting, and a public code repository. The exploratory coincidence matrix and the documentation of inconsistent outputs are valuable descriptive contributions. However, the confirmatory statistical analysis is flawed in a load-bearing way: the chi-square test ignores the paired structure of the data, and the reported p-values conflate statistical significance with practical significance. The paper's main conclusion therefore needs to be re-argued with appropriate paired analyses and effect sizes before the claim of 'significant variations' is acceptable.

major comments (3)
  1. [Análisis confirmatorio, Eq. (1); Tables 6 and 7] The chi-square test is applied to aggregate label counts (as reported in Table 3), not to per-comment agreement, and the procedure explicitly states that 'cada resultado de calificación solicitado por un prompt es independiente de otro.' This independence assumption is false because the same 100,000 comments are classified by every prompt, making the observations paired. A marginal chi-square test cannot detect per-comment disagreement—two prompts could have identical marginal distributions while assigning opposite labels to every comment. The authors should use a paired test (e.g., the Stuart-Maxwell test or McNemar-type tests for multinomial categories) or model per-comment agreement directly. As written, the confirmatory analysis does not support the claim that the prompts produce significantly different classifications.
  2. [Resultados, Tables 4, 6, and 7] The extremely small p-values are driven primarily by the sample size of 100,000 and do not by themselves establish that the differences are practically meaningful. The coincidence matrix (Table 4) shows exact agreement between 0.92 and 0.98, meaning that 2–8% of comments are classified differently across prompt pairs. No effect size, such as Cohen's kappa, the proportion of disagreements, or the magnitude of marginal shifts, is reported. The conclusion that 'cambios sutiles ... sí producen variaciones significativas' is therefore overstated; the evidence supports at most small, statistically detectable differences. The authors should report an effect size and interpret the magnitude of the differences in light of the 92–98% agreement.
  3. [Prueba Chi-cuadrado vs. Análisis confirmatorio] There is an internal inconsistency in the definition of the categories used in the chi-square test. The confirmatory section defines the events i as 'positivo, negativo y neutral' (three categories), but the subsequent description of the chi-square analysis states that the categorical results were transformed to numeric values 1, 2, 3, and 4, with 4 representing 'inconsistente.' This means the test actually uses four categories, including responses that were not requested by the prompt. The authors should specify whether inconsistent responses were excluded or included, and, if included, justify treating these non-requested outputs as a category in the marginal comparison. This ambiguity affects the reproducibility and validity of the reported p-values in Tables 6 and 7.
minor comments (6)
  1. [Introduction, reference to OpenAI 2023d] The text cites OpenAI 2023d as the source for the sentiment analysis prompt used as prompt 1, but the reference list entry for OpenAI 2023d is titled 'Meeting minutes,' which appears to be a different document; the reference should be corrected or clarified.
  2. [References, Zhang et al. 2023] The paper cites two different works by 'Zhang et al. 2023': one on sentiment analysis in the era of LLMs (Zhang, Deng, Liu, Pan, and Bing) and one on meta prompting (Zhang, Yuan, and Yao). The prompt design section refers to 'Zhang et al. (2023)' for the base prompt 2 without disambiguating which of these references is meant; please specify the intended citation.
  3. [Análisis exploratorio, PCA] The PCA is performed on only ten prompt embeddings, and the resulting two-dimensional plot is described in terms of proximity and clustering. This is reasonable as an exploratory visualization, but the interpretation of 'closeness' would benefit from reporting the variance explained by the principal components, since with ten points the projection may be visually misleading.
  4. [Resultados, Table 3] The text references Table 3 as showing the percentage of each category per prompt, but the table entries are not described in the body; a short narrative summary of the ranges of the percentages (e.g., the largest margin differences between prompts) would help readers interpret the subsequent chi-square results.
  5. [Prueba Chi-cuadrado] The chi-square statistic is written with a typo in the formula: 'χ2=∑!"#1(%!&’!)2’!' should be a standard sum over categories of (O_i - E_i)^2 / E_i; please correct the notation.
  6. [Discussion] The statement that unstructured prompts (prompts 9 and 10) produce 'more than 1000' inconsistent responses would be easier to interpret if the counts were reported in a table, along with the total number of responses per prompt, rather than only in prose.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No circularity: the study directly compares observed label distributions across prompt variants, with no fitted parameter renamed as prediction and no load-bearing self-citation.

full rationale

The paper's central claim is an empirical finding: ten zero-shot prompts are applied to the same 100,000 Spanish comments and the resulting label distributions are compared. The confirmatory chi-square analysis uses only the directly observed classification counts and expected counts derived from another prompt's observed counts; no parameter is fitted to a subset and then 'predicted' on the same subset. The base prompts are attributed to OpenAI and Zhang et al. (2023), neither of which overlaps with the present authors, so the conclusion does not depend on a self-citation chain. Exploratory tools (PCA, coincidence matrix, Levenshtein distance) and the chi-square test are standard descriptive and inferential statistics applied to the experimental output, not derivations whose conclusions are already contained in the inputs. The paired-observations issue raised in the reader's take is a statistical appropriateness concern about whether a marginal chi-square is ideal when the same comments are labeled by every prompt; it is a substantive methodological caveat about effect size and test choice, not circularity in the derivation. No step satisfies the bar of 'Eq. X = Eq. Y by construction' or 'fitted parameter renamed as prediction,' so the circularity score is 0.

Assumptions & free parameters 0 free parameters · 3 assumptions · 0 invented entities

No free parameters are fitted; the study is entirely empirical. The main assumptions are statistical and operational, not mathematical axioms.

assumptions (3)
  • domain assumption The chi-square test provides a valid comparison of classification distributions across prompts.
    The paper uses this test in the confirmatory analysis but treats paired observations as independent, which may invalidate the test.
  • domain assumption Temperature set to zero yields deterministic outputs from GPT-4o mini.
    The authors assume that setting temperature to 0 makes repeated runs of the same prompt identical, but OpenAI does not guarantee strict determinism, and they did not run repetitions to check.
  • domain assumption The embeddings, PCA, and Levenshtein distances reflect meaningful prompt similarity.
    These exploratory measures are used to interpret prompt grouping, but their validity as proxies for model behavior is assumed.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of Trusting CHATGPT: how minor tweaks in the prompts lead to major differences in sentiment classification." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/WJDVGMGD

@misc{pith2026250412180,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: Trusting CHATGPT: how minor tweaks in the prompts lead to major differences in sentiment classification},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/WJDVGMGD}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2504.12180}
}
read the original abstract

One fundamental question for the social sciences today is: how much can we trust highly complex predictive models like ChatGPT? This study tests the hypothesis that subtle changes in the structure of prompts do not produce significant variations in the classification results of sentiment polarity analysis generated by the Large Language Model GPT-4o mini. Using a dataset of 100.000 comments in Spanish on four Latin American presidents, the model classified the comments as positive, negative, or neutral on 10 occasions, varying the prompts slightly each time. The experimental methodology included exploratory and confirmatory analyses to identify significant discrepancies among classifications. The results reveal that even minor modifications to prompts such as lexical, syntactic, or modal changes, or even their lack of structure impact the classifications. In certain cases, the model produced inconsistent responses, such as mixing categories, providing unsolicited explanations, or using languages other than Spanish. Statistical analysis using Chi-square tests confirmed significant differences in most comparisons between prompts, except in one case where linguistic structures were highly similar. These findings challenge the robustness and trust of Large Language Models for classification tasks, highlighting their vulnerability to variations in instructions. Moreover, it was evident that the lack of structured grammar in prompts increases the frequency of hallucinations. The discussion underscores that trust in Large Language Models is based not only on technical performance but also on the social and institutional relationships underpinning their use.

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Reference graph

Works this paper leans on

59 extracted references · 36 canonical work pages

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    1 ¿Confiar en ChatGPT? Cuando una variación sutil en el prompt puede modificar significativamente los resultados. Autores Cuellar, Jaime E. jaimecuellar@javeriana.edu.co Facultad de Comunicación y Lenguaje Pontificia Universidad Javeriana (Colombia) https://orcid.org/0009-0004-0858-2823 Moreno-Martínez, Óscar. Ph.D. morenoo@javeriana.edu.co Facultad de Co...

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    En este sentido, se buscó poner a prueba la capacidad del modelo para interpretar correctamente el mensaje subyacente, con formas lingüísticas desestructuradas

    Por último, los prompts 9 y 10 fueron diseñados sin palabras gramaticales ni puntuación para evaluar cómo el modelo maneja instrucciones cargadas semánticamente, pero fragmentadas gramaticalmente. En este sentido, se buscó poner a prueba la capacidad del modelo para interpretar correctamente el mensaje subyacente, con formas lingüísticas desestructuradas....

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    Asimismo, la distancia de palabras entre el prompt 2 y el 6 es de tan solo 1 palabra, a pesar de que su coincidencia en la Tabla 4 es de 0,96. También, se observa que los prompts desestructurados, sin palabras gramaticales ni puntuación, no fueron los que mayor difirieron con el resto, como pasó en el análisis anterior. Finalmente, la correlación entre es...

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    verdad científica

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    Trust as reliance in computer artifacts means that we expect an object to do something to help us attain our goals

    como con una relación social de atributo relacional (Cook y Santana 2020). La confianza en estos modelos puede darse a partir de que confiamos en la 25 institución que los crea y mantiene (Cook, Hardin y Levi 2005), por experiencias sociales y tecnológicas previas, pero tambié...

Pith tools

Reviewed August 16, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.