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AutoGluon-TimeSeries: AutoML for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

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arxiv 2308.05566 v1 pith:YK3TWWFK submitted 2023-08-10 cs.LG

classification cs.LG
keywords autogluon-timeseriesforecastingtimeaccuracyautomlmethodsmodelspoint
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal
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We introduce AutoGluon-TimeSeries - an open-source AutoML library for probabilistic time series forecasting. Focused on ease of use and robustness, AutoGluon-TimeSeries enables users to generate accurate point and quantile forecasts with just 3 lines of Python code. Built on the design philosophy of AutoGluon, AutoGluon-TimeSeries leverages ensembles of diverse forecasting models to deliver high accuracy within a short training time. AutoGluon-TimeSeries combines both conventional statistical models, machine-learning based forecasting approaches, and ensembling techniques. In our evaluation on 29 benchmark datasets, AutoGluon-TimeSeries demonstrates strong empirical performance, outperforming a range of forecasting methods in terms of both point and quantile forecast accuracy, and often even improving upon the best-in-hindsight combination of prior methods.

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    FAME learns to route heterogeneous time series to a budgeted subset of forecasting experts using a multidimensional forecastability fingerprint mined from validation performance, achieving 12.4% MSE reduction on a 5,0...

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