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The International Pulsar Timing Array checklist for the detection of nanohertz gravitational waves
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Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) provide a way to detect gravitational waves at nanohertz frequencies. In this band, the most likely signals are stochastic, with a power spectrum that rises steeply at lower frequencies. Indeed, the observation of a common red noise process in pulsar-timing data suggests that the first credible detection of nanohertz-frequency gravitational waves could take place within the next few years. The detection process is complicated by the nature of the signals and the noise: the first observational claims will be statistical inferences drawn at the threshold of detectability. To demonstrate that gravitational waves are creating some of the noise in the pulsar-timing data sets, observations must exhibit the Hellings and Downs curve -- the angular correlation function associated with gravitational waves -- as well as demonstrating that there are no other reasonable explanations. To ensure that detection claims are credible, the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA) has a formal process to vet results prior to publication. This includes internal sharing of data and processing pipelines between different PTAs, enabling independent cross-checks and validation of results. To oversee and validate any detection claim, the IPTA has also created an eight-member Detection Committee (DC) which includes four independent external members. IPTA members will only publish their results after a formal review process has concluded. This document is the initial DC checklist, describing some of the conditions that should be fulfilled by a credible detection. At the present time none of the PTAs have a detection claim; therefore this document serves as a road map for the future.
Forward citations
Cited by 5 Pith papers
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Optimal robust detection statistics for pulsar timing arrays
In simulations, a new cross-correlation-only statistic NPMV detects a gravitational-wave background more often than the standard PTA statistic, improving detection probability by about 47% at the 5-sigma threshold.
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The MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array: The first search for gravitational waves with the MeerKAT radio telescope
The first MeerKAT PTA search reports Hellings-Downs correlations at about 3.4 sigma under some noise models, but the significance vanishes under slightly different assumptions, leaving the data ambiguous.
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The MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array: The $4.5$-year data release and the noise and stochastic signals of the millisecond pulsar population
The MeerKAT PTA data release finds a common red noise signal with amplitude log10 A = -14.25 to -14.28, larger than other PTAs, and provides detailed noise models for 83 pulsars.
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The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Harmonic Analysis of the Pulsar Angular Correlations
A Bayesian harmonic analysis of the NANOGrav 15-year data finds the pulsar angular correlations are dominated by a quadrupole consistent with general relativity, but an unexplained monopole at about 4 nHz reduces the ...
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The SKAO Pulsar Timing Array
An SKAO PTA with ~174 millisecond pulsars can dominate nanohertz GW sensitivity within four years and enable continuous-wave detections plus anisotropy maps of the gravitational-wave background.
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