COBE, Gravitational Waves, Inflation and Extended Inflation

We analyse the implications for inflationary models of the cosmic microwave background (cmb) anisotropy measured by COBE. Vacuum fluctuations during inflation generate an adiabatic density perturbation, and also gravitational waves. The ratio of these two contributions to the cmb anisotropy is given for an arbitrary slow-roll inflaton potential. Results from the IRAS/QDOT and POTENT galaxy surveys are used to normalise the spectrum of the density perturbation on the scale $20h^{-1}\Mpc$, so that the COBE measurement on the scale $10^3h^{-1}\Mpc$ provides a lower bound on the spectral index $n$. For `power law' and `extended' inflation, gravitational waves are significant and the bound is $n>0.84$ at the $2$-sigma level. For `natural' inflation, gravitational waves are negligible and the constraint is weakened to $n>0.70$, at best marginally consistent with a recent proposal for explaining the excess clustering observed in the APM galaxy survey. Many versions of extended inflation, including those based on the Brans--Dicke theory, are ruled out, because they require $n\lsim 0.75$ in order that bubbles formed at the end of inflation should not be observed now in the cmb.