Pith Number

pith:HDARFBXA

pith:2025:HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GUY3752VTTAD

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Guillermo Suarez-Tangil, Lucianna Kiffer, Oriol Saguillo, Vahid Ghafouri

arxiv:2508.03474 v1 · 2025-08-05 · cs.CR · q-fin.TR

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GUY3752VTTAD}

Prints a linked badge after your title and injects PDF metadata. Compiles on arXiv. Learn more · Embed verified badge

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Cited by

8 papers in Pith

Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases

Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill: Two Methodological Lenses on Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets

ForesightFlow: An Information Leakage Score Framework for Prediction Markets

Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill: Two Methodological Lenses on Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets

Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-07-05T11:48:56.981949Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

38c11286e0faeffc68d4c6ffdd567300c0bd59e5e2d217a8806933ae4a34a26e

Aliases

arxiv: 2508.03474 · arxiv_version: 2508.03474v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2508.03474 · pith_short_12: HDARFBXA7LX7 · pith_short_16: HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GU · pith_short_8: HDARFBXA

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/HDARFBXA7LX7Y2GUY3752VTTAD \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 38c11286e0faeffc68d4c6ffdd567300c0bd59e5e2d217a8806933ae4a34a26e

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "7a7ea952b9e44aef9f40c999830951c9165ba683d486a56788c7745ef96762cc",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "q-fin.TR"
    ],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.CR",
    "submitted_at": "2025-08-05T14:06:50Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "4b7216e5d0d8cf6eaf509eaeba13e36e898950bde34d5da9a9e853095154f9c7"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2508.03474",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}