A meta-analysis of 1490 BBH merger rate predictions from 57 studies shows substantial subsets reproduce or underestimate the observed rate, indicating that apparent crises are model-dependent rather than universal.
When and where did GW150914 form?
3 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
3
Pith papers citing it
abstract
The recent LIGO detection of gravitational waves (GW150914), likely originating from the merger of two $\sim 30 M_\odot$ black holes suggests progenitor stars of low metallicity ($[Z/Z_\odot] \lesssim 0.3$), constraining when and where the progenitor of GW150914 may have formed. We combine estimates of galaxy properties (metallicity, star formation rate and merger rate) across cosmic time to predict the low redshift black hole - black hole merger rate as a function of present day host galaxy mass, $M_\mathrm{gal}$, and the formation redshift of the progenitor system $z_\mathrm{form}$ for different progenitor metallicities $Z_\mathrm{c}$. At $Z_\mathrm{c}=0.1 Z_\odot$, the signal is dominated by binaries in massive galaxies with $z_\mathrm{form}\simeq 2$, with a small contribution from binaries formed around $z_\mathrm{form}\simeq 0.5$ in dwarf galaxies. For $Z_\mathrm{c}=0.01Z_\odot$, fast mergers are possible and very recent star formation in dwarfs likely dominates. Additional gravitational wave detections from merging massive black holes will provide constraints on the mass-metallicity relation and massive star formation at high redshifts.
fields
astro-ph.HE 3years
2026 3verdicts
UNVERDICTED 3representative citing papers
Introduces a target redshift z_t to isolate metal-poor black hole progenitors and a statistical framework to test merger-rate variations against forecasts from Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer.
Theoretical predictions for local BBH merger rates exceed observations by a factor >10 under conservative SFRD and metallicity assumptions, indicating need for revisions in stellar evolution.
citing papers explorer
-
Lower Your Rates: On Claims of a Binary Black Hole Merger-Rate Crisis
A meta-analysis of 1490 BBH merger rate predictions from 57 studies shows substantial subsets reproduce or underestimate the observed rate, indicating that apparent crises are model-dependent rather than universal.
-
Targeting black holes from metal-poor progenitors with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors
Introduces a target redshift z_t to isolate metal-poor black hole progenitors and a statistical framework to test merger-rate variations against forecasts from Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer.
-
Can current models predict the local black hole merger rate?
Theoretical predictions for local BBH merger rates exceed observations by a factor >10 under conservative SFRD and metallicity assumptions, indicating need for revisions in stellar evolution.