A beta-VAE analysis of pop-cosmos models finds that five latent dimensions capture the rest-frame optical SED, corresponding to stellar mass, recent star formation, dust, and two gas ionization states.
Prospects for resolving the Hubble constant tension with standard sirens
10 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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abstract
The Hubble constant ($H_0$) estimated from the local Cepheid-supernova (SN) distance ladder is in 3-$\sigma$ tension with the value extrapolated from cosmic microwave background (CMB) data assuming the standard cosmological model. Whether this tension represents new physics or systematic effects is the subject of intense debate. Here, we investigate how new, independent $H_0$ estimates can arbitrate this tension, assessing whether the measurements are consistent with being derived from the same model using the posterior predictive distribution (PPD). We show that, with existing data, the inverse distance ladder formed from BOSS baryon acoustic oscillation measurements and the Pantheon SN sample yields an $H_0$ posterior near-identical to the Planck CMB measurement. The observed local distance ladder value is a very unlikely draw from the resulting PPD. Turning to the future, we find that a sample of $\sim50$ binary neutron star "standard sirens" (detectable within the next decade) will be able to adjudicate between the local and CMB estimates.
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Using simulated binary black hole mergers and neutral hydrogen maps, the radio sirens method constrains H0 to 8% precision with 3000 high-SNR events, offering a 90% improvement over standard dark siren analyses.
Lunar GW observatories can deliver weeks-to-months early warnings, 0.01 deg² localizations, and ~100 well-localized BNS events per year for GW170817-like sources, with multi-band networks yielding 0.1% mass-ratio and 1% distance precision.
DES Y3 3x2pt analysis constrains S8=0.776±0.017 and Ωm=0.339±0.032 in flat ΛCDM, consistent with Planck CMB results at p=0.13-0.48.
Galaxy size-mass relations exhibit double power-law breaks at different pivot masses for quiescent versus bulge-dominated samples, coinciding with AGN activity scales.
Tensions in the supernova intercept a_B at z~0.01 in PantheonPlus and z~0.1 in DES-Y5 point to data systematics or inter-survey inconsistencies rather than new physics, aligning H0 measurements and reducing support for dynamical dark energy.
Final Planck CMB data confirms the flat 6-parameter ΛCDM model with Ω_c h² = 0.120 ± 0.001, Ω_b h² = 0.0224 ± 0.0001, n_s = 0.965 ± 0.004, τ = 0.054 ± 0.007, H_0 = 67.4 ± 0.5 km/s/Mpc, and no strong evidence for extensions.
Gaussian Process Regression on mock GW siren catalogues reconstructs comoving distance and derivatives, showing that derivative diagnostics at specific redshifts best separate cosmological models while background data alone does not.
Thesis summarizing an upper limit of 0.12 eV on the neutrino mass sum, bias calibration via CMB lensing cross-correlations, and tighter limits plus stronger normal-ordering preference in non-phantom dynamical dark energy models.
Pedagogical derivation from first principles of hierarchical Bayesian inference for population properties of compact binaries in the presence of selection effects, with two worked examples.
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Cosmological searches for the neutrino mass scale and mass ordering
Thesis summarizing an upper limit of 0.12 eV on the neutrino mass sum, bias calibration via CMB lensing cross-correlations, and tighter limits plus stronger normal-ordering preference in non-phantom dynamical dark energy models.