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Kling-Gupta linear regression

math.ST · 2026-06-08 · unverdicted · novelty 6.0

Kling-Gupta linear regression scales the OLS coefficient vector by a variance-inflation factor based on sample moments, preserves response variance on the training set, and converges almost surely to explicit population limits while maximizing KGE but not NSE.

Sparse Tree-Based Aggregation for Time Series Regressions

econ.EM · 2026-06-02 · unverdicted · novelty 6.0 · 2 refs

StarTime applies a temporal tree to enable sparse or aggregated coefficient selection in high-order autoregressions and mixed-frequency regressions, with new error bounds and better simulation performance than benchmarks.

Forecasting of volatility and risk premia in electricity markets

q-fin.GN · 2026-06-04 · unverdicted · novelty 5.0

Matrix-HAR model with multi-horizon lags and renewable generation inputs improves one-week forecasts of realized covariation and spread risk premia versus standard backward-looking volatility methods in electricity markets.

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  • Forecasting of volatility and risk premia in electricity markets q-fin.GN · 2026-06-04 · unverdicted · none · ref 47

    Matrix-HAR model with multi-horizon lags and renewable generation inputs improves one-week forecasts of realized covariation and spread risk premia versus standard backward-looking volatility methods in electricity markets.