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Trial factors for the look elsewhere effect in high energy physics

7 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.

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abstract

When searching for a new resonance somewhere in a possible mass range, the significance of observing a local excess of events must take into account the probability of observing such an excess anywhere in the range. This is the so called "look elsewhere effect". The effect can be quantified in terms of a trial factor, which is the ratio between the probability of observing the excess at some fixed mass point, to the probability of observing it anywhere in the range. We propose a simple and fast procedure for estimating the trial factor, based on earlier results by Davies. We show that asymptotically, the trial factor grows linearly with the (fixed mass) significance.

representative citing papers

Asymptotic formulae for likelihood-based tests of new physics

physics.data-an · 2010-07-10 · accept · novelty 6.0

Asymptotic distributions of profiled likelihood-ratio test statistics are derived for new-physics searches and parameter estimation, with the Asimov dataset supplying a direct route to median experimental sensitivity.

Locating nuclear-powered submarines with antineutrinos

hep-ex · 2026-05-15 · unverdicted · novelty 3.0

Antineutrino-based detection can function as a barrier for locating nuclear submarines, with a 20 kt detector achieving Z_A ≈ 2.54 in the Strait of Gibraltar for a 100 MW case and higher scores with multiple detectors.

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Showing 7 of 7 citing papers.