An ML model trained only on harmonized gridded observations achieves competitive medium-range weather forecast skill with the IFS for several upper-air and surface headline scores when verified against observations.
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Forecasting global weather with graph neural networks
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Historically trained ML weather emulators quantify fast precipitation changes from CO2 perturbations and produce results that agree with Earth System Models.
Samudra 2 scales autoregressive neural ocean emulators to finer resolutions with architectural tweaks and dynamic loss, raising upper-ocean temperature R² from 0.56 to 0.87 at 1° and recovering mesoscale features.
WeatherSyn is the first instruction-tuned MLLM for weather forecasting report generation, outperforming closed-source models on a new dataset of 31 US cities across 8 weather aspects.
Diffusion model climate emulators provide probability density estimates that allow likelihood calculations and odds-ratio-based importance sampling for extreme events such as tropical cyclones.
A GraphCast-based ocean emulator achieves skillful 10-15 day forecasts, with a Mahalanobis loss that accounts for variable correlations improving performance over MSE and acting as a statistical-dynamical regularizer.
Image-to-image networks estimate parameters of non-stationary SAR models faster and more accurately than traditional methods by framing fields and parameters as images.
A conditional diffusion model downscales global atmospheric forecasts from 100 km to 30 km resolution while improving probabilistic skill, matching power spectra, and preserving physical relationships.
STCast introduces Spatial-Aligned Attention and Temporal Mixture-of-Experts modules to adaptively refine regional boundaries in data-driven weather forecasting and reports better performance than prior methods on global, regional, extreme-event, and ensemble tasks.
GraphCast shows regime-dependent skill versus ECMWF HRES in Brazil, underperforming on winter baroclinic systems in medium range but gaining in extended range and summer moisture transport.
The work introduces WaLeF/FIDLAr for flood forecasting, CoDiCast for probabilistic weather, and Hypercube-RAG for explainable environmental QA, claiming superior accuracy, efficiency, and interpretability over baselines.
DroughtFormer predicts soil moisture, vegetation health, and related variables in Africa with skill out to 90 days that matches or exceeds climatology for most targets, but shows lower accuracy for precipitation and flash drought indices.