A new harmonic-decomposition template search for precessing binary black holes in LIGO O3 data improves sensitivity by up to 28% and reduces computational cost by up to 5x with no new detections.
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Estimation of the Sensitive Volume for Gravitational-wave Source Populations Using Weighted Monte Carlo Integration
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abstract
The population analysis and estimation of merger rates of compact binaries is one of the important topics in gravitational wave (GW) astronomy. The primary ingredient in these analyses is the population-averaged sensitive volume. Typically, sensitive volume, of a given search to a given simulated source population, is estimated by drawing signals from the population model and adding them to the detector data as injections. Subsequently injections, which are simulated gravitational waveforms, are searched for by the search pipelines and their signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is determined. Sensitive volume is estimated, by using Monte-Carlo (MC) integration, from the total number of injections added to the data, the number of injections that cross a chosen threshold on SNR and the astrophysical volume in which the injections are placed. So far, only fixed population models have been used in the estimation of the merger rates. However, as the scope of population analysis broaden in terms of the methodologies and source properties considered, due to an increase in the number of observed GW signals, the procedure will need to be repeated multiple times at a large computational cost. In this letter we address the problem by performing a weighted MC integration. We show how a single set of generic injections can be weighted to estimate the sensitive volume for multiple population models; thereby greatly reducing the computational cost. The weights in this MC integral are the ratios of the output probabilities, determined by the population model and standard cosmology, and the injection probability, determined by the distribution function of the generic injections. Unlike analytical/semi-analytical methods, which usually estimate sensitive volume using single detector sensitivity, the method is accurate within statistical errors, comes at no added cost and requires minimal computational resources.
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representative citing papers
Dingo-Pop uses a transformer to perform amortized, end-to-end population inference from GW strain data in seconds, bypassing per-event Monte Carlo sampling.
Joint strong-lensing and population inference on resolved gravitational-wave events finds no lensed events and tightens constraints on the black-hole merger rate peak redshift and high-redshift tail.
Simulations show a 40-50 solar-mass black-hole cutoff is not guaranteed to be confidently recovered from GWTC-4-like catalogs, spurious detections are unlikely, and O4 data would reduce cutoff-mass uncertainty by at least 20 percent while yielding only a lower bound on the carbon-alpha reaction rate
Targeted eccentric search detects GW200105 with SNR 13.4 and FAR <1/1000 yr, consistent with dynamical formation of the NSBH binary.
Maximum-likelihood-based posterior predictive checks detect model misspecification better than event-level versions for uncertain spin tilts, but current detector sensitivity limits their power; the Gaussian Component Spins model underpredicts high spin magnitudes and overpredicts anti-aligned tilts
The chirp-mass distribution of GW-detected binary black holes shows a ladder of peaks doubling in mass, with a new intermediate peak at 19 solar masses confirming a prior prediction from the hierarchical merger model.
Introduces a target redshift z_t to isolate metal-poor black hole progenitors and a statistical framework to test merger-rate variations against forecasts from Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer.
Hierarchical Bayesian inference on GWTC-5.0 constrains the memory enhancement factor to 0.26 with large uncertainties consistent with the GR value of 1 and forecasts that 2000 detections are needed for a 1σ constraint away from zero.
Spectral-siren H0 constraints from GWTC-4.0 binary black holes remain robust when the mass spectrum is permitted to evolve with redshift at current detector sensitivity.
Hierarchical analysis of GWTC-3 yields C_eff = 0.5^{+0.3}_{-0.1} consistent with black holes and limits low-compactness exotic binary merger rate to <0.7 Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}.
GWTC-5.0 analysis finds evidence for structure beyond a non-skewed Gaussian bulk in χ_eff, with suggestive mass-dependent excess of positive over negative spins outside the bulk at 13:1 odds in one mass bin.
GWTC-2.1 adds eight new high-significance compact binary coalescence events to the prior catalog, extending the observed black hole mass range and including candidates inside the pair-instability mass gap.
Population-informed hierarchical parameter estimation is required for unbiased astrophysical interpretation of gravitational-wave events rather than using standard individual posteriors with reference priors.
citing papers explorer
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Search for Precessing Binary Black Holes in Advanced LIGO's Third Observing Run using Harmonic Decomposition
A new harmonic-decomposition template search for precessing binary black holes in LIGO O3 data improves sensitivity by up to 28% and reduces computational cost by up to 5x with no new detections.
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End-to-End Population Inference from Gravitational-Wave Strain using Transformers
Dingo-Pop uses a transformer to perform amortized, end-to-end population inference from GW strain data in seconds, bypassing per-event Monte Carlo sampling.
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Joint population and strong-lensing inference for resolved gravitational-wave events probes the black-hole merger rate beyond the peak of star formation
Joint strong-lensing and population inference on resolved gravitational-wave events finds no lensed events and tightens constraints on the black-hole merger rate peak redshift and high-redshift tail.
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Measurement prospects for the pair-instability mass cutoff with gravitational waves
Simulations show a 40-50 solar-mass black-hole cutoff is not guaranteed to be confidently recovered from GWTC-4-like catalogs, spurious detections are unlikely, and O4 data would reduce cutoff-mass uncertainty by at least 20 percent while yielding only a lower bound on the carbon-alpha reaction rate
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Detection of GW200105 with a targeted eccentric search
Targeted eccentric search detects GW200105 with SNR 13.4 and FAR <1/1000 yr, consistent with dynamical formation of the NSBH binary.
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Posterior Predictive Checks for Gravitational-wave Populations: Limitations and Improvements
Maximum-likelihood-based posterior predictive checks detect model misspecification better than event-level versions for uncertain spin tilts, but current detector sensitivity limits their power; the Gaussian Component Spins model underpredicts high spin magnitudes and overpredicts anti-aligned tilts
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The Chirp-Mass Ladder: A New Rung Emerges
The chirp-mass distribution of GW-detected binary black holes shows a ladder of peaks doubling in mass, with a new intermediate peak at 19 solar masses confirming a prior prediction from the hierarchical merger model.
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Targeting black holes from metal-poor progenitors with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors
Introduces a target redshift z_t to isolate metal-poor black hole progenitors and a statistical framework to test merger-rate variations against forecasts from Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer.
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Constraining Gravitational Wave Memory with Hierarchical Inference
Hierarchical Bayesian inference on GWTC-5.0 constrains the memory enhancement factor to 0.26 with large uncertainties consistent with the GR value of 1 and forecasts that 2000 detections are needed for a 1σ constraint away from zero.
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Gravitational-wave constraints on $H_0$ are robust to (putative) redshift evolution in the binary black hole mass spectrum at current sensitivity
Spectral-siren H0 constraints from GWTC-4.0 binary black holes remain robust when the mass spectrum is permitted to evolve with redshift at current detector sensitivity.
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Establishing Compactness as a Population Observable in Gravitational-Wave Astronomy
Hierarchical analysis of GWTC-3 yields C_eff = 0.5^{+0.3}_{-0.1} consistent with black holes and limits low-compactness exotic binary merger rate to <0.7 Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}.
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Evidence for additional structure in the effective spin distribution hints at multiple formation pathways in GWTC-5.0
GWTC-5.0 analysis finds evidence for structure beyond a non-skewed Gaussian bulk in χ_eff, with suggestive mass-dependent excess of positive over negative spins outside the bulk at 13:1 odds in one mass bin.
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GWTC-2.1: Deep Extended Catalog of Compact Binary Coalescences Observed by LIGO and Virgo During the First Half of the Third Observing Run
GWTC-2.1 adds eight new high-significance compact binary coalescence events to the prior catalog, extending the observed black hole mass range and including candidates inside the pair-instability mass gap.
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Gravitational-wave astronomy requires population-informed parameter estimation
Population-informed hierarchical parameter estimation is required for unbiased astrophysical interpretation of gravitational-wave events rather than using standard individual posteriors with reference priors.