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arxiv: 2605.19661 · v2 · pith:A2MODIRDnew · submitted 2026-05-19 · 🌌 astro-ph.GA

COSMOS-Web: Star formation along the early Hubble sequence and the evolution of dust over the redshift range 0<z<12

Stephen Eales , Matthew Smith , Tom Bakx , Jordan D'Silva , Feng-Yuan Frey Liu , Aparna Venkateshwaran This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-05-21 07:43 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.GA
keywords galaxy evolutionstar formationquenchingHubble sequencedust masssubmillimetre galaxiesredshift evolutionmorphology
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The pith

Mean star-formation rates in the most massive galaxies fall along the Hubble sequence from irregular to spheroid types between redshifts 2 and 4.5, showing quenching began shortly after the sequence emerged.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

This paper stacks one of the deepest SCUBA-2 850-micron images using the COSMOS-Web catalogue to measure average dust emission and thus star-formation rates for galaxies split by stellar mass and morphology from redshift 0 to 12. For galaxies around 10^11 solar masses at 2

Core claim

Stacking analysis of 850-micron emission reveals that, for the most massive galaxies, mean star-formation rate declines along the Hubble sequence from irregular galaxies at one end to spheroids at the other in the redshift window 2<z<4.5. This trend indicates that quenching was already operating soon after the Hubble sequence appeared. The decline can be matched by a starvation model with a depletion time of 10^8.2 years, while the observed growth in number density of massive bulge-dominated and spheroidal galaxies between 1.5<z<4 is reproduced by the transformation of submillimetre galaxies. A chemical-evolution model built on the cosmic star-formation history and equal gas outflow rate is,

What carries the argument

Stacking of SCUBA-2 850-micron images for galaxies classified by morphology along the Hubble sequence and stellar mass

Load-bearing premise

The 850-micron stacked emission is produced almost entirely by dust heated by star formation with negligible AGN or other contamination, and that morphological types remain reliably assigned at redshifts above 2.

What would settle it

A measurement showing that AGN contribute more than a few tens of percent of the stacked 850-micron flux for the high-redshift samples, or a reclassification of the same galaxies with higher-resolution imaging that removes the systematic drop in star-formation rate from irregulars to spheroids.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2605.19661 by Aparna Venkateshwaran, Feng-Yuan Frey Liu, Jordan D'Silva, Matthew Smith, Stephen Eales, Tom Bakx.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Images showing the signal-to-noise of our measurements of the mean 850-𝜇m flux density of 70 samples of galaxies, with the results from the basic stacking method shown above and from SIMSTACK shown below. The annotation shows the redshift and mass range for each sample. Each pixel in each image represents a different offset from the COSMOS-Web positions, with the zero-offset position being in the centre. T… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Mean flux density at 850 𝜇m versus mass for each redshift interval. The mauve points are the values measured with the basic stacking method. The cyan points are the values measured with SIMSTACK. The two sets have been offset by 0.1 in log10 (M∗ ), to prevent an overlap. The horizontal dashed line at a flux density of 0.1 mJy has been drawn to aid comparison between the panels. The limits are 3𝜎 upper limi… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Mean flux density at 850 𝜇m estimated with SIMSTACK (§2.4) for star-forming galaxies (mauve) and quiescent galaxies (cyan) plotted against stellar mass for the 14 redshift intervals. The two sets of points have been offset by 0.1 in log10 (M∗ ) so that they don’t overlap. The horizontal dashed line at a flux density of 0.1 mJy has been drawn to aid comparison between the panels. The upper limits are 3𝜎 upp… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Mean flux density at 850 𝜇m estimated with SIMSTACK for the four different morphological classes from Huertas-Company et al. (2025): irregular galaxies–green; disk-dominated galaxies–blue; bulge-dominated galaxies–cyan; spheroids–red. The horizontal dashed line at 0.1 mJy has been drawn to aid comparison between the panels. We have added offsets to the sets of points (0.05 in log10 (M∗ )) to avoid them ove… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: The mean ratio of dust mass to stellar mass versus stellar mass for the 14 redshift intervals. The coloured symbols show the results for the three temperature models: blue–COLD; red–STAR-FORMER; cyan–EVOLVE. The three sets of points have been offset by ±0.1 along the x-axis for greater clarity.The upper limits are 3𝜎 upper limits. The dashed lines show the result of fitting equation 5 to the data points fo… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: The mean ratio of dust mass to stellar mass versus redshift for the five intervals of stellar mass. The coloured symbols are for the different temperature models: blue–COLD; red–STAR-FORMER; cyan–EVOLVE. The sets of points have been offset by ±0.1 in redshift for greater clarity. is luminosity distance, and the dust mass-opacity coefficient, 𝜅(𝜈), is given by: 𝜅(𝜈) =  𝜈 𝜈850𝜇𝑚  𝛽 𝜅850𝜇𝑚 (4) We assumed a … view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: shows the weighted mean value of the five values for the dust-to-stellar mass ratio in each redshift interval plotted against redshift. We have calculated these weighted means separately for each temperature model and used the errors on dust-to-stellar mass ratios shown in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: The mean dust density versus redshift for COLD (blue), STAR￾FORMER (red) and EVOLVE (cyan). The purple circles show our estimates based on the ground-based surveys of COSMOS (Eales & Ward 2024). The grey crosses show the estimates of Magnelli et al. (2020). A comparison of our results with other attempts to derive the relationship between mean dust density and redshift is given in our earlier paper (Eales … view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Estimated star-formation rate versus redshift for a galaxy with an 850-𝜇m flux density of 1 mJy (see text for details) and for the temperature models: EVOLVE (cyan) and STAR-FORMER (red). We have not included COLD because any galaxy containing OB stars must contain some warm dust. We estimated the star-formation rate by integrating the SED of the dust model between wavelengths of 3 and 1100 𝜇m to calculate… view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Mean value of the star-formation rate estimated from the bolometric dust luminosity plotted against redshift, with the colour of the symbol showing the morphological class: red–spheroids; blue–disk-dominated galaxies; green–irregular galaxies; cyan–bulge-dominated galaxies. The lines show the predicted relationships for the ‘galaxy main sequence’ (Popesso et al. 2023). The upper limits are 3𝜎 upper limits… view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Ratio of the mean star-formation rate estimate from the dust emission to the mean of the COSMOS-Web estimates from the UV-to-near-IR SED for the same sample of galaxies. The continuous horizontal line shows where the two estimates are equal and the two dashed lines show where the star-formation rate estimated from the dust emission is 2 or 0.5 times the COSMOS-Web estimate. The colours show the different … view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Mean star-formation rate estimated from the dust emission for galaxies in the four morphological classs in the redshift range 2 < 𝑧 < 4.5 and 10.0 < log10M∗ < 10.5 (blue), 10.5 < log10M∗ < 11.0 (red) and 11.0 < log10M∗ < 11.5 (mauve). The horizontal dashed lines show the predicted star-formation rate for a galaxy on the galaxy ‘main sequence’ at a redshift of 3 with log10M∗ = 10.25 (blue), 10.5 (red) and … view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Histograms of the specific star-formation rate for the four morpho￾logical classes in the redshift range 2 < z < 4.5 and with 11.5 > log10M∗ > 10.5. In this case, the star-formation rates are the values estimated from UV￾to-near-IR photometry in the COSMOS-Web catalogue (§2.2). The vertical lines show the median values of SSFR for the four classes. The lines for the irregulars and the disk-dominated are s… view at source ↗
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: shows the results for Λ = 0, Λ = 1 and Λ = 2. The 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Redshift 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 10 1 D u s t D e n s i ty/ 1 0 5 M M p c 3 COLD STAR-FORMER EVOLVE [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p020_15.png] view at source ↗
Figure 16
Figure 16. Figure 16: The mean density of dust-traced gas versus redshift for COLD (blue), STAR-FORMER (red) and EVOLVE (cyan) and from our previous study (purple). The solid line shows the ‘star-formation history of the uni￾verse’, an analytic relationship derived from empirical estimates of the global star-formation rate (Madau & Dickinson 2014). The star-formation-density axis has been scaled so that the star-formation hist… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

We have carried out a stacking analysis with the COSMOS-Web catalogue on one of the deepest ever SCUBA-2 images at 850 microns, allowing us to estimate the mean submillimetre flux density for samples of galaxies split by stellar mass and morphological class over the redshift range 0<z<12. For all morphological classes, the mean star-formation rate estimated from the dust emission increases with redshift, reaching a value for the most massive galaxies (~10^11 soar masses) of >~80 solar masses per year at 2 < z < 4.5. In this redshift range, the mean star-formation rate for these galaxies falls along the Hubble sequence from ~280 solar masses per year for irregular galaxies at one end to ~80 solar masses per year for spheroids at the other end, which shows that quenching was already happening shortly after the emergence of the Hubble sequence. The decrease in the star-formation rate for the spheroidal galaxies can be reproduced with a `starvation' quenching model with a depletion time of ~10^{8.2} years. We also show that the transformation of `submillimetre galaxies' can reproduce the growth in number-density of massive bulge-dominated and spheroidal galaxies over the redshift range 1.5 <z < 4. As a side-project, we have used our stacking results to show that the ratio of dust mass to stellar mass in galaxies increases with redshift out to z~8 and to determine the relationship between the mean density of dust and redshift in the range 0 < z <12. We show that a chemical evolution model based on the `star-formation history' of the universe, with a gas outflow rate equal to the star-formation rate, can explain the monotonic rise in the dust-to-stellar mass ratio and reproduce the relationship between mean dust density and redshift remarkably accurately.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

4 major / 3 minor

Summary. This paper uses stacking of deep SCUBA-2 850μm imaging in the COSMOS-Web field to measure average submillimeter fluxes for galaxies binned by stellar mass (~10^11 M⊙) and morphological type (irregular, bulge-dominated, spheroid) from z=0 to z=12. It finds that mean SFRs rise with redshift and, at 2<z<4.5, decline along the Hubble sequence from ~280 M⊙/yr (irregulars) to ~80 M⊙/yr (spheroids), suggesting early quenching. A starvation model with ~10^8.2 yr depletion time reproduces the spheroid trend, while SMG evolution matches the rise in massive spheroid number densities at 1.5<z<4. Dust-to-stellar mass ratios increase to z~8, and a chemical evolution model with outflow rate = SFR reproduces the mean dust density evolution.

Significance. Should the results prove robust against systematics, they would strengthen evidence for quenching processes operating soon after the Hubble sequence forms at high redshift and provide empirical constraints on dust production and evolution models. The stacking technique enables statistical measurements for faint high-z sources, and the model comparisons offer testable predictions, though the parameter choices limit the independence of the fits.

major comments (4)
  1. [Abstract and stacking analysis] No error bars or uncertainty estimates are provided for the mean SFR values (e.g., the ~280 to ~80 M⊙ yr⁻¹ decline at 2<z<4.5), which is essential to evaluate if the trend along the Hubble sequence is statistically significant or affected by sample variance.
  2. [Stacking analysis description] The central assumption that 850μm stacked flux is dominated by star-formation-heated dust with negligible AGN contribution is not tested, despite spheroids and bulge-dominated galaxies being more likely to host AGN; this could bias the SFR estimates upward for later Hubble types and undermine the quenching interpretation.
  3. [Morphological classification] No robustness checks or redshift-dependent reliability assessments are described for the morphological classifications used to split samples at z>2, where visual or parametric typing becomes challenging and could invalidate the Hubble sequence trends.
  4. [Chemical evolution model] The model reproduces the dust-to-stellar mass ratio and mean dust density 'remarkably accurately' only after setting the outflow rate equal to the star-formation rate; this parameterization choice reduces the result to a consistency check rather than an independent validation of the model.
minor comments (3)
  1. [Abstract] Typo: 'soar masses' should read 'solar masses'.
  2. [Methods] Details on galaxy sample selection, completeness corrections, and handling of source blending in the stacks are not provided, which are needed for reproducibility.
  3. [Figure captions] Figures showing the stacked images or SFR trends should include error bars and indicate the number of galaxies per bin.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

4 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their thoughtful and constructive report. We address each major comment below and have made revisions to strengthen the manuscript where possible.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract and stacking analysis] No error bars or uncertainty estimates are provided for the mean SFR values (e.g., the ~280 to ~80 M⊙ yr⁻¹ decline at 2<z<4.5), which is essential to evaluate if the trend along the Hubble sequence is statistically significant or affected by sample variance.

    Authors: We agree that uncertainty estimates are necessary to assess the robustness of the reported trends. In the revised manuscript we have added bootstrap-derived uncertainties to the mean SFR values quoted in the abstract and main text, along with a brief discussion of sample variance and its impact on the Hubble-sequence trend at 2<z<4.5. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Stacking analysis description] The central assumption that 850μm stacked flux is dominated by star-formation-heated dust with negligible AGN contribution is not tested, despite spheroids and bulge-dominated galaxies being more likely to host AGN; this could bias the SFR estimates upward for later Hubble types and undermine the quenching interpretation.

    Authors: We acknowledge the possibility of AGN contamination. However, multiple studies of submillimetre emission in high-redshift AGN hosts show that the 850 μm flux remains dominated by star-formation-heated dust. We have added a dedicated paragraph in the revised methods section citing this literature and noting that any residual AGN contribution would not reverse the observed decline along the Hubble sequence. A full empirical test would require new multi-wavelength data beyond the scope of the present work. revision: partial

  3. Referee: [Morphological classification] No robustness checks or redshift-dependent reliability assessments are described for the morphological classifications used to split samples at z>2, where visual or parametric typing becomes challenging and could invalidate the Hubble sequence trends.

    Authors: The COSMOS-Web imaging is sufficiently deep to permit reliable visual and parametric classifications up to z≈4.5. In the revised manuscript we have inserted a new subsection that quantifies classification reliability as a function of redshift, including agreement between visual and parametric methods and the fraction of ambiguous objects in each bin. These checks confirm that the Hubble-sequence trends remain robust within the redshift range used for the SFR comparison. revision: yes

  4. Referee: [Chemical evolution model] The model reproduces the dust-to-stellar mass ratio and mean dust density 'remarkably accurately' only after setting the outflow rate equal to the star-formation rate; this parameterization choice reduces the result to a consistency check rather than an independent validation of the model.

    Authors: We accept that fixing the outflow rate to equal the star-formation rate makes the exercise a consistency check rather than a fully independent test. In the revised text we have rephrased the relevant section to clarify the observational motivation for this choice and to present the model as demonstrating that a simple chemical-evolution framework with this physically motivated outflow prescription can reproduce the observed dust evolution, rather than claiming an independent validation. revision: yes

Circularity Check

1 steps flagged

Chemical evolution model 'reproduction' of dust ratios is forced by setting outflow rate equal to SFR

specific steps
  1. fitted input called prediction [abstract (side-project paragraph)]
    "We show that a chemical evolution model based on the `star-formation history' of the universe, with a gas outflow rate equal to the star-formation rate, can explain the monotonic rise in the dust-to-stellar mass ratio and reproduce the relationship between mean dust density and redshift remarkably accurately."

    The model is stated to reproduce the observed dust-to-stellar mass ratio and mean dust density once the outflow rate is set equal to the star-formation rate. This parameter choice is tuned to the quantities derived from the paper's own stacking results, so the match is achieved by construction rather than emerging as an independent prediction from the model.

full rationale

The paper derives mean dust-to-stellar mass ratios and dust densities from 850μm stacking, then presents a chemical evolution model that matches these quantities 'remarkably accurately' after explicitly setting the outflow rate equal to the star-formation rate. This choice is a direct modeling input rather than an independent prediction or first-principles derivation, reducing the claimed explanatory success to a fit by construction. No other circular steps are identified in the observational stacking or morphological analysis.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

2 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claims rest on standard submillimeter astronomy assumptions plus two explicit modeling choices (depletion timescale and outflow scaling) introduced to match the data.

free parameters (2)
  • starvation depletion time = ~10^{8.2} years
    Specific value of ~10^{8.2} years chosen to reproduce the observed SFR decline for spheroidal galaxies.
  • gas outflow rate scaling = equal to SFR
    Set equal to the star-formation rate in the chemical evolution model to match dust observations.
axioms (2)
  • domain assumption 850-micron flux density traces dust emission heated by star formation
    Invoked to convert stacked submillimeter flux to star-formation rate.
  • domain assumption Morphological classifications remain reliable at z>2
    Required to bin galaxies by Hubble sequence type in the stacking analysis.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5911 in / 1640 out tokens · 56855 ms · 2026-05-21T07:43:51.890612+00:00 · methodology

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