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arxiv: 2606.12405 · v1 · pith:YFY463GYnew · submitted 2026-06-10 · 🌌 astro-ph.CO

Bounding the Effect of HOD Assumptions on Small-Scale Clustering Constraints

Pith reviewed 2026-06-27 08:40 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.CO
keywords small-scale clusteringhalo occupation distributioncosmological constraintsgalaxy-halo connectiontwo-point correlation functionAbacusSummit
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The pith

Small-scale galaxy clustering excludes far fewer cosmologies when halo occupation parameters are allowed to vary than when fixed.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper measures how strongly small-scale galaxy clustering can constrain cosmology once uncertainty in the galaxy-halo connection is taken into account. It compares two limiting cases on the same set of mock data vectors: one that profiles over a five-parameter HOD model with only broad initial bounds, and one that assumes those parameters are known exactly. A reader cares because the two cases produce very different numbers of excluded cosmologies, showing that the amount of prior information on how galaxies occupy halos directly sets how much cosmological information the data can deliver. The analysis uses two-point correlation function multipoles from LRG-like mocks built on 81 AbacusSummit cosmologies.

Core claim

When the HOD parameters are profiled over with broad bounds, only 25 percent of the tested AbacusSummit cosmologies are excluded at 3 sigma by the Planck LCDM data vector; when the same parameters are fixed exactly, 81 percent are excluded.

What carries the argument

The floor treatment, which minimizes chi-squared over the five HOD parameters after imposing only broad initial bounds, versus the ceiling treatment that holds those parameters fixed.

If this is right

  • Under conservative HOD assumptions many more cosmologies remain consistent with the data than under optimistic assumptions.
  • The difference persists across variations in scale cuts, multipole inclusion, and mock phase.
  • Strong small-scale clustering constraints require informative priors on the galaxy-halo connection.
  • The same data vector can produce chi-squared values that differ by multiple orders of magnitude depending on the HOD treatment.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Analyses that aim to use small scales for cosmology will need independent constraints on HOD parameters or joint modeling that marginalizes them properly.
  • If the true galaxy-halo relation varies with cosmology, even the floor case may overestimate the available constraining power.
  • Combining small-scale clustering with other observables that help pin down HOD parameters could close the gap between the floor and ceiling results.

Load-bearing premise

The standard five-parameter HOD model with broad initial bounds is flexible enough to represent the true minimum information extractable from the clustering data.

What would settle it

Direct evidence that the galaxy-halo connection requires more than five parameters or depends on cosmology would mean the floor case no longer gives the actual minimum constraining power.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.12405 by Lado Samushia, Nick Magnelli, Zachery Brown.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: — Two instances of DD(r, µ) for c000 ph000+5pAHOD-set-A ( [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: — 2PCF multipoles for several values of µmax2 produced from c000 ph000+5pAHOD-set-A. The uncertainties shown have been recomputed for the corresponding values of µmax2. In our methodology we only consider µmax2 ∈ {0.9, 1.0}. The source causing the strong effect of µmax2 in the small-scale quadrupole is the excess of extreme-angle galaxy pairs that can be seen in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: — 2PCF multipoles for fixed ph000, but varying 5pAHOD and cosmological parameters about c000+5pAHOD-set-A. The top panel shows the monopole and quadrupole for c000 ph000+5pAHOD-set-A versus c125 ph000+5pAHOD-set-A. The latter is chosen because it represents a +0.5% change in σ8, an important parameter in small-scale clustering (e.g. Leauthaud et al. 2017; Yuan et al. 2022a; Amon et al. 2023). Note that whi… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: — 2PCF multipoles for fixed c000+5pAHOD-set-A, but different phases. ph000 is shown in black. The 24 remaining cubic box phases, ph[001--024], are shown in red. The blue lines denote the small box phases. These are nominally listed as ph[3000--4999], but only 1830 of these are considered in our anal￾ysis (see Section 2.4). The uncertainties shown on ph000 are taken from the covariance matrix produced from … view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: — 2PCF multipoles for fixed c000+5pAHOD-set-A, vary￾ing phase (blue, 25 phases) and the AbacusHOD seed for pseudoran￾dom galaxy population (red, 25 seeds). The spread due to seed is smaller than the spread due to phase, but the seed spread is not negligible. We treat the seed as part of the model (fixed at the default value) and construct covariance matrices from phase variation alone (Section 2.4). to the… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: — Sampling density of the filtered interpolation data vectors for c000 ph000. The nontrivial shapes arise from the filters on ¯n and fsat; in the unfiltered case the distribution against the 5pAHOD parameters would be approximately uniform. The 500 unfiltered sampling vectors are omitted. Note that some ¯n and fsat values fall outside the nominal cuts because our filtration acts on a far quicker but slight… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: — Accuracy of the 2PCF multipole interpolator (5pIHOD) relative to AbacusHOD (5pAHOD) for c000 ph000, where for each case, 5pAHOD-set = 5pIHOD-set. These pseudorandom 5pAHOD-sets were generated approximately within our bounds on HOD parameters, n¯, and fsat (see comment on [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p011_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: — Validation results for each cosmology tested in the suite. For each cosmology, the best minimum χ 2 ν values from HODmin-S1 and HODmin-S2 out of the 1000 independent values for all 5 validation cases are shown, such that there are 10 points per cosmology, 405 unique validation mocks across the suite, and 810 data points shown in total. “Index” represents the 81 cosmologies tested, but these are not order… view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: — Distribution of minimum χ 2 ν from the 1000 independent runs of HODmin for the c000 ph000+5pAHOD interpolator against the c000 ph000+5pAHOD-set-A mock data vector (rmin2 = 5, µmax2 = 0.9, monopole+quadrupole). The two histograms cor￾respond to the outputs of HODmin-S1 and HODmin-S2. HODmin-S2 consistently converges well within χ 2 ν ≪ 1. χ 2 is a useful measure of goodness of fit, but the best￾fit HOD pa… view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: — Scatter corner plot of the 1000 best-fit 5pIHOD-sets from the HODmin-S2 outputs of the runs described in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p014_10.png] view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: — Two sets of 1000 2PCF multipoles correspond￾ing to the HODmin-S2 best-fit 5pIHOD-sets in comparison to the c000 ph000+5pAHOD-set-A mock data vector (black): c000 ph000+5pIHOD (red; corresponds to Figures 9–10, along with the mock data vector) and c180 ph000+5pIHOD (blue). Despite the wide spread in best-fit 5pIHOD-space ( [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_11.png] view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: — The effect on suite constraints from varying the available inputs one at a time from the default test configuration of rmin2 = 5, µmax2 = 0.9, monopole+quadrupole, and a mock data vector produced from c000 ph000+5pAHOD-set-A (red). The first panel shows the effect of varying to rmin2 = 20 (blue). The second panel shows the effect of varying to µmax2 = 1.0 (blue). The third panel shows the effect of cons… view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: — Floor versus ceiling constraints across the AbacusSummit suite. In the ceiling case (blue), computations are made directly from AbacusHOD rather than through an interpolator, and no minimization is performed; 5pAHOD parameters are fixed to those of the mock data vector. The floor case (red), as well as the indexing of this plot, corresponds to the same default configuration shown in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:fi… view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: — Baseline-configuration χ 2 ν as a function of the cosmological parameters of the AbacusSummit-based models. The 81-cosmology sampling is too sparse for clear contours. With more data points, we might plausibly expect to uncover reliable contours in the w0 − wa and h − ωcdm projections. variance matrices derived from the Planck ΛCDM phases suffice for all interpolation and data vectors, whether or not th… view at source ↗
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: — Distribution of minimum χ 2 ν from HODmin runs of the c000 ph000+5pAHOD interpolator against 24 mock data vectors from c000 ph[001-024]+5pAHOD-set-A. The 5pAHOD flexibility is generally insufficient to compensate phase differences within an otherwise￾identical cosmology. small-scale 2PCF multipoles can strongly discriminate between cosmologies in the AbacusSummit grid. If, in￾stead, HOD parameters are a… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Small-scale galaxy clustering is expected to contain substantial cosmological information, but the extent to which this information constrains halo-based cosmologies independent of an assumed galaxy--halo connection remains unclear. We quantify this dependence using LRG-like mock galaxy catalogs built from 81 cosmologies in the {\tt \textsc{AbacusSummit}} suite. We analyze two-point correlation function multipoles on scales ranging from $5$--$80$ Mpc/$h$ and compare two limiting treatments, the \enquote{floor} and \enquote{ceiling}, of the standard five-parameter HOD model. In the conservative floor case, we impose only broad initial HOD bounds and profile over HOD parameters to determine the minimum constraining power available; we accomplish this with {\tt HODmin}, a two-stage global optimization algorithm written for minimizing $\chi^2$ in HOD space. In the optimistic ceiling case, we assume the HOD parameters are known exactly. We find a significant difference between the floor and ceiling when comparing against the same Planck $\Lambda$CDM mock data vector with identical modeling assumptions: for the floor, $25\%$ of the discrete {\tt \textsc{AbacusSummit}} cosmologies tested are excluded at $3\sigma$, whereas for the ceiling, $\sim81\%$ are excluded. Many cosmologies agree well with data in the floor, and yet in the ceiling are excluded by multiple orders of magnitude in $\chi^2$. We therefore observe the strength of small-scale clustering constraints depends heavily on the amount of prior HOD information assumed. We compare the sensitivity of this effect to various choices like scale cut, angle cut, multipole inclusion, mock phase, and mock HOD model. Our wide floor--ceiling bracket indicates that informative galaxy--halo priors are necessary for extracting strong small-scale clustering constraints.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 0 minor

Summary. The paper analyzes small-scale galaxy clustering using LRG-like mocks from 81 AbacusSummit cosmologies. It compares two-point correlation function multipoles (5--80 Mpc/h) against a fixed Planck ΛCDM data vector under two limiting treatments of the standard five-parameter HOD model: a conservative 'floor' case that profiles over HOD parameters with broad initial bounds via a new two-stage optimizer (HODmin) to find minimum χ², and an optimistic 'ceiling' case that fixes the HOD parameters exactly. The central result is that 25% of the tested cosmologies are excluded at 3σ in the floor case versus ∼81% in the ceiling case, with many cosmologies fitting well under the floor but excluded by orders of magnitude under the ceiling. Sensitivity tests to scale cuts, multipoles, and mock choices are reported, leading to the conclusion that small-scale clustering constraints depend strongly on the amount of prior HOD information assumed.

Significance. If the central result holds, the work provides a concrete, quantitative demonstration that the cosmological information extractable from small-scale clustering is highly sensitive to galaxy--halo connection assumptions, using independent external mocks and a fixed reference data vector for a clean floor--ceiling bracket. The explicit exclusion fractions (25% vs. ∼81%) and reported sensitivity tests supply falsifiable benchmarks for future analyses. This highlights the practical necessity of informative HOD priors and supplies a methodological template (HODmin) for profiling over nuisance parameters in similar settings.

major comments (2)
  1. [Methods, HODmin optimizer] Methods, HODmin optimizer: The two-stage global optimization algorithm is load-bearing for the floor case χ² values that determine the 25% exclusion fraction, yet no validation (e.g., recovery of known minima on test functions, multiple random starts, or comparison to alternative minimizers) is described; without this, it is unclear whether the reported minima are reliably global or whether local minima inflate the floor χ² and thereby understate the exclusion rate.
  2. [HOD model description and floor definition] HOD model description and floor definition: The claim that the five-parameter HOD with broad initial bounds implements the 'minimum constraining power available' assumes this functional form spans all relevant galaxy--halo degrees of freedom. If the true connection requires additional parameters (assembly bias, velocity bias, or cosmology dependence) outside the five-parameter family, the profiled floor χ² values would be higher than the true minimum, so the reported 25% exclusion fraction would overstate the conservative limit and the floor--ceiling difference would not fully bracket the dependence on prior information.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive and detailed comments, which help clarify the scope and robustness of our results. We respond to each major comment below.

read point-by-point responses
  1. Referee: [Methods, HODmin optimizer] The two-stage global optimization algorithm is load-bearing for the floor case χ² values that determine the 25% exclusion fraction, yet no validation (e.g., recovery of known minima on test functions, multiple random starts, or comparison to alternative minimizers) is described; without this, it is unclear whether the reported minima are reliably global or whether local minima inflate the floor χ² and thereby understate the exclusion rate.

    Authors: We agree that validation of HODmin is essential to establish that the reported minima are global. In the revised manuscript we will add a dedicated subsection on optimizer validation. This will include: (i) recovery of known analytic minima on standard test functions, (ii) results from 50 independent random initializations per cosmology showing convergence to the same minimum within numerical tolerance, and (iii) direct comparison of HODmin results against scipy.optimize.differential_evolution on a subset of cosmologies. These tests will confirm that local minima do not inflate the floor χ² values. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [HOD model description and floor definition] The claim that the five-parameter HOD with broad initial bounds implements the 'minimum constraining power available' assumes this functional form spans all relevant galaxy--halo degrees of freedom. If the true connection requires additional parameters (assembly bias, velocity bias, or cosmology dependence) outside the five-parameter family, the profiled floor χ² values would be higher than the true minimum, so the reported 25% exclusion fraction would overstate the conservative limit and the floor--ceiling difference would not fully bracket the dependence on prior information.

    Authors: We thank the referee for this important qualification. Our floor is defined strictly as the minimum χ² attainable by profiling over the standard five-parameter HOD with broad initial bounds; it is therefore the minimum within that model family. We agree that if the true galaxy-halo connection requires additional parameters (assembly bias, velocity bias, or explicit cosmology dependence), the true minimum could be lower still. We will revise the text to state explicitly that the reported 25% exclusion fraction is the conservative limit within the five-parameter HOD, and we will add a short discussion of how extra degrees of freedom would further reduce the exclusion rate. This framing preserves the floor-ceiling bracket as a demonstration of sensitivity to HOD prior information while acknowledging the model limitation. revision: partial

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity; central result from direct comparison on independent mocks

full rationale

The paper computes exclusion fractions (25% floor vs ~81% ceiling at 3σ) by comparing each of 81 AbacusSummit cosmologies to a fixed Planck ΛCDM mock data vector, profiling HOD parameters in the floor case via the HODmin optimizer to obtain minimum χ² values. These fractions are measured outputs of the χ² comparisons on external realizations rather than quantities defined by the HOD fits themselves. No self-definitional steps, fitted inputs renamed as predictions, or load-bearing self-citations appear in the derivation chain; the floor/ceiling bracket is a direct empirical measurement under stated modeling assumptions.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The paper relies on the standard five-parameter HOD model and the AbacusSummit N-body suite as background infrastructure; the only new element is the HODmin optimizer whose internal details are not specified in the abstract.

free parameters (1)
  • five HOD parameters
    Profiled over with broad bounds in the floor case; their specific values are not reported as they are marginalized.
axioms (2)
  • domain assumption The five-parameter HOD model is an adequate description of the galaxy-halo connection across the tested cosmologies
    Invoked when defining the floor case as the conservative minimum constraining power.
  • domain assumption AbacusSummit mocks accurately represent the clustering signal for LRG-like galaxies in each cosmology
    Required for the exclusion fractions to be meaningful.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.1-grok · 5876 in / 1513 out tokens · 22513 ms · 2026-06-27T08:40:24.566856+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

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