Thermal gravity, black holes and cosmological entropy

Taking seriously the interpretation of black hole entropy as the logarithm of the number of microstates, we argue that thermal gravitons may undergo a phase transition to a kind of black hole condensate. The phase transition proceeds via nucleation of black holes at a rate governed by a saddlepoint configuration whose free energy is of order the inverse temperature in Planck units. Whether the universe remains in a low entropy state as opposed to the high entropy black hole condensate depends sensitively on its thermal history. Our results may clarify an old observation of Penrose regarding the very low entropy state of the universe.