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What is the probability that direct detection experiments have observed Dark Matter?

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arxiv 1410.6160 v2 pith:EGTLVVJR submitted 2014-10-22 astro-ph.CO hep-phphysics.data-an

classification astro-ph.COhep-phphysics.data-an
keywords darkexperimentsmattermethodprobabilitycalculatecompatibilitydetection
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In Dark Matter direct detection we are facing the situation of some experiments reporting positive signals which are in conflict with limits from other experiments. Such conclusions are subject to large uncertainties introduced by the poorly known local Dark Matter distribution. We present a method to calculate an upper bound on the joint probability of obtaining the outcome of two potentially conflicting experiments under the assumption that the Dark Matter hypothesis is correct, but completely independent of assumptions about the Dark Matter distribution. In this way we can quantify the compatibility of two experiments in an astrophysics independent way. We illustrate our method by testing the compatibility of the hints reported by DAMA and CDMS-Si with the limits from the LUX and SuperCDMS experiments. The method does not require Monte Carlo simulations but is mostly based on using Poisson statistics. In order to deal with signals of few events we introduce the so-called "signal length" to take into account energy information. The signal length method provides a simple way to calculate the probability to obtain a given experimental outcome under a specified Dark Matter and background hypothesis.

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Cited by 3 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. Halo-Independent Quantum Sensor Probes of Low-Velocity Dark Matter

    hep-ph 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 6.0 of 10

    A halo-independent method using quantum sensors to probe and reconstruct the local dark matter velocity distribution from direct detection data.

  2. Astrophysics-independent determination of dark matter parameters from two direct detection signals

    hep-ph 2019-08 accept novelty 6.0 of 10

    A nonparametric statistical test on recoil energies from two different detector targets can determine the dark matter mass without assuming the galactic velocity distribution.

  3. Information-theoretic astrophysical uncertainties in the effective theory of dark matter direct detection

    hep-ph 2026-01 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    Using an information-theoretic bound on the halo velocity distribution, dark matter direct-detection limits vary from <10x to ~10,000x near threshold depending on the EFT operator, with higher velocity-weighting opera...

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