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Estimating Transient Rates from Cosmological Simulations and BPASS
Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Submitted 15 Nov 2021
abstract compiled · 2026-09-23 · no language-model review
The authors' main claim We recommend against using simple prescriptions for the metallicity evolution of the Universe when predicting the rates of events that can have long delay times and that are sensitive to metallicity evolution.
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The abstract, sentence by sentence
The detection rate of electromagnetic (EM) and gravitational wave (GW) transients is growing exponentially. As the accuracy of the transient rates will significantly improve over the coming decades, so will our understanding of their evolution through cosmic history. To this end, we present predicted rates for EM and GW transients over the age of the Universe using Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis (BPASS) results combined with four cosmic star formation histories (SFH). These include a widely used empirical SFH of Madau & Dickinson and those from three cosmological simulations: MilliMillennium, EAGLE and IllustrisTNG. We find that the choice of SFH significantly changes our predictions: transients with short delay times are most affected by the star formation rate, while long-delay time events tend to depend on the metallicity evolution of star formation. Importantly we find that the cosmological simulations have very different metallicity evolution that cannot be reproduced by the widely used metallicity model of Langer & Norman, which impacts the binary black hole merger and stripped-envelope supernovae rates in the local Universe most acutely. We recommend against using simple prescriptions for the metallicity evolution of the Universe when predicting the rates of events that can have long delay times and that are sensitive to metallicity evolution.
background contribution method result interpretation main claim
| # | sentence | role | the authors' own work | states the main conclusion | strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| s0 | The detection rate of electromagnetic (EM) and gravitational wave (GW) transients is growing exponentially. | background 1.00 | 0.07 | 0.02 | asserted 1.00 |
| s1 | As the accuracy of the transient rates will significantly improve over the coming decades, so will our understanding of their evolution through cosmic history. | background 0.98 | 0.05 | 0.03 | asserted 0.75 |
| s2 | To this end, we present predicted rates for EM and GW transients over the age of the Universe using Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis (BPASS) results combined with four cosmic star formation histories (SFH). | contribution 0.95 | 0.92 | 0.07 | asserted 0.98 |
| s3 | These include a widely used empirical SFH of Madau & Dickinson and those from three cosmological simulations: MilliMillennium, EAGLE and IllustrisTNG. | method 0.93 | 0.44 | 0.03 | asserted 0.97 |
| s4 | We find that the choice of SFH significantly changes our predictions: transients with short delay times are most affected by the star formation rate, while long-delay time events tend to depend on the metallicity evolution of star formation. | result 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.31 | asserted 1.00 |
| s5 | Importantly we find that the cosmological simulations have very different metallicity evolution that cannot be reproduced by the widely used metallicity model of Langer & Norman, which impacts the binary black hole merger and stripped-envelope supernovae rates in the local Universe most acutely. | result 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.31 | asserted 1.00 |
| s6 | We recommend against using simple prescriptions for the metallicity evolution of the Universe when predicting the rates of events that can have long delay times and that are sensitive to metallicity evolution. | future work 0.79 | 0.42 | 0.69 | asserted 0.85 |
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The paper
Original abstract
The detection rate of electromagnetic (EM) and gravitational wave (GW) transients is growing exponentially. As the accuracy of the transient rates will significantly improve over the coming decades, so will our understanding of their evolution through cosmic history. To this end, we present predicted rates for EM and GW transients over the age of the Universe using Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis (BPASS) results combined with four cosmic star formation histories (SFH). These include a widely used empirical SFH of Madau & Dickinson and those from three cosmological simulations: MilliMillennium, EAGLE and IllustrisTNG. We find that the choice of SFH significantly changes our predictions: transients with short delay times are most affected by the star formation rate, while long-delay time events tend to depend on the metallicity evolution of star formation. Importantly we find that the cosmological simulations have very different metallicity evolution that cannot be reproduced by the widely used metallicity model of Langer & Norman, which impacts the binary black hole merger and stripped-envelope supernovae rates in the local Universe most acutely. We recommend against using simple prescriptions for the metallicity evolution of the Universe when predicting the rates of events that can have long delay times and that are sensitive to metallicity evolution.
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References
How the literature uses it
11 arXiv papers cite this in 20 sentences
Papers citing it · 13 sentences without a confident label
Uses its method or tool 1 paper
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To identify models which produce neutron stars in core-collapse, we require in the final time step of each model (i) a total mass $>2.0$ M$_⊙$, (ii) a CO core mass $>1.38$ M$_⊙$, (iii) a non-zero ONe core mass, and (iv) a remnant mass in the range $1.38<M_rem<3.0$ [ref] .
Where are the magnetar binary companions? Candidates from a comparison with binary population synthesis predictions · Predictions · 0.93
Cites it as support 2 papers
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More recently, it became apparent that the assumptions about the f$_SFR$(Z,z) can lead to comparable uncertainty in the model predictions (e.g. [ref] ).
Chemical evolution of the Universe and its consequences for gravitational-wave astrophysics · DCO mergers formed in isolated binary evolution · 0.98
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BPASS is able to simultaneously reproduce a large array of observables, such as runaway star velocities and masses [ref] , the relative rates of different SN types and ratios of different massive star types [ref] , and the rates of CCSNe, type Ia SNe, GW transients [ref] .
End-to-end study of the home and genealogy of the first binary neutron star merger · The BPASS-STARS implementation · 0.98
Cites it as background 4 papers
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The ultimate goal is to distinguish the relative contributions of various formation environments of detected GW systems which might be isolated field evolution of binaries [ref] or higher multiples systems [ref] as well as globular clusters or galactic nuclei [ref] .
Binary Evolution Can Mimic the Pair-Instability Mass Gap in Black Hole Mergers · Introduction · 0.97
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The evolution of stars in binary systems, and hence the properties of BNSs at the time of mergers, have been the subject of numerous investigations using population synthesis codes (e.g. [ref] ), coupled with either semi-analytical prescriptions for galaxy modeling and evolution (e.g. [ref] ), or with results from numerical simulations of galaxy formation (e.g. [ref] ).
Host galaxies and electromagnetic counterparts to binary neutron star mergers across the cosmic time: Detectability of GW170817-like events · Population synthesis calculations of binary stars leading to BNS mergers · 0.96
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Some examples of such processes or parameters which may significantly influence physical properties of DCO mergers are: the metallicity-specific star formation rate density and initial mass function [ref] , stellar winds [ref] , convection and overshooting [ref] , NS and BH natal kicks [ref] , type and rate of mass transfer and the outcome of stable/unstable RLOF [ref] .
The role of supernova convection for the lower mass gap in the isolated binary formation of gravitational wave sources · Discussion of caveats and uncertainties · 0.88
What it cites · 22 sentences without a confident label
Uses the method or tool of 1 paper
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For the cosmological simulations, we extract the merger trees of each non-zero stellar-mass galaxy at $z=0$ using the public APIs [EAGLE [ref] , TNG; [ref] , Millennium [ref] ].
Halo and Galaxy Formation Histories from the Millennium Simulation: Public release of a VO-oriented and SQL-queryable database for studying the evolution of galaxies in the LambdaCDM cosmogony · Numerical Method · 0.94
Uses data or values from 2 papers
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This combined credible interval has been constructed in similar fashion to that at $z=0$, but considers three BBH population models,, , and [ref] , which evolve over redshift.
The population of merging compact binaries inferred using gravitational waves through GWTC-3 · Binary Black-hole mergers · 0.83
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These have particle masses $7.5 ×10^6 M_⊙$ and $1.4 ×10^6 M_⊙$, respectively, in the TNG100-1 simulation [ref] , which we shall refer to as the TNG simulation in this paper. $1820^3$ dark matter and $1820^3$ baryonic particles are included in the simulation volume of $110.7^3$ cMpc and are evolved from $z=127$ to present day in a $h=0.6774$, $Ω_M=0.30897$, and $Ω_Λ= 0.6911$ $Λ$CDM Universe from [ref] .
First results from the IllustrisTNG simulations: A tale of two elements -- chemical evolution of magnesium and europium · IllustrisTNG Simulation · 0.84
Compares with 1 paper
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At $z=0.2$ the observational constraints from [ref] are the strongest and the combined 90% credible range from their collection of models lies below the predicted merger rates, despite that the simulations with a fast enrichment, the EAGLE and TNG simulations, approach upon this range, which shows the strong correlation between the BBH rate and metallicity evolution.
The population of merging compact binaries inferred using gravitational waves through GWTC-3 · Binary Black-hole mergers · 0.84
Cites as background 2 papers
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The influence of the implemented evolutionary physics on the compact object merger rate has been explored using rapid population synthesis codes [ref] .
The cosmic merger rate density of compact objects: impact of star formation, metallicity, initial mass function and binary evolution · Introduction · 0.91
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The influence of the implemented evolutionary physics on the compact object merger rate has been explored using rapid population synthesis codes [ref] .
Impact of Massive Binary Star and Cosmic Evolution on Gravitational Wave Observations I: Black Hole-Neutron Star Mergers · Introduction · 0.91
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